Login

Register

Member List

RSS Feed

Amanda | Contact

Auguste | Contact

Jesse | Contact

Pam | Contact

Next entry: Tom DeLay’s rehearsals and debut on Dancing w/the Stars: an exercise in loosening the ass Previous entry: Mad Men blogging: The joke isn’t funny anymore

‘Concern’ for birth rates a cover for racist twaddle

Wow, Mark Steyn is an idiot and a cold motherfucker.  He takes it as such a given that lowered fertility (by choice, mind you) is a bad thing that he doesn’t conceal that he’d accept higher infant mortality—-which means more devastated, heart-broken families—-in order to to achieve it.  Steyn literally does see the great mass of humanity as a bunch of cogs in an income-generating machine, instead of as discrete human beings who have needs and concerns that are valid.  The source of the discussion here is why the U.S. has such a high infant mortality rate.  As Ampersand details, there’s a few reasons, with systemic racism at the core of the problem.  Infant mortality, especially in the worldwide view, is a complicated problem, but it’s linked with poverty for obvious reasons—-less food and access to health care leads to smaller, weaker babies—-and less obvious reasons, such as the age when you have your first baby and how much access to contraception you have so that you can plan when you get pregnant.  But Steyn brushes past all this and settles on a rather bizarre assessment based on his narrow focus on the need for more young labor.

But, even without taking into account the significant variations in the definition of “live birth”, one thing you notice is that, by comparison with the United States, the countries with the lowest “infant mortality rate” have some of the lowest fertility rates on the planet. That’s to say, it’s not just that they have fewer infant deaths, they have fewer infants, period. They have so few, indeed, that over the medium-term (in Italy, Germany and elsewhere) it will render their government health systems unsustainable. But, as a general proposition, I would say that, when fertility rates get as low as they are in Germany, Italy, Spain and elsewhere, to the point that you now have upside-down family trees of four grandparents, two children, one grandchild, it’s hardly surprising that “infant mortality” is lower.

I like that he puts “infant mortality” in scare quotes, as if liberals just made up dead babies in order to get government-subsidized Viagra for ourselves.  Read Ampersand to get a better idea of how stupid Steyn is being.  I’m not even sure if he understands how the infant mortality rate is determined.  It’s not number of infants who die against the population at large, but deaths of infants per live births.  Fewer infants period wouldn’t change the rate.  But I might be wrong in this, since his conclusion shows that he has a rudimentary grasp of the fact that infant mortality is lowered when a nation and a family decides to put more of its resources into each individual, something that is an easier thing to pull off if you have fewer family members to begin with.  (The book Half the Sky has a good discussion of how infant mortality and childhood death in general takes out more girls than boys in many nations, because parents devote more resources to the boys.)  But as Ampersand details, that’s a bit of a stretch when you’re talking about the difference between Western Europe and the U.S., since we all have more than enough to go around for every individual.  The birth rate could easily soar in the UK or Italy without any significant change to their infant mortality rate.  Ours is high because we don’t invest enough in women’s health, and last I checked, women is where babies come from.


That’s why I have that video up above.  It’s Rachel Maddow talking about women’s health results.  Note how infant mortality is bucketed into the general category of “women’s reproductive health”, because infant mortality is more closely linked to women’s health than any other factor.

Which isn’t to say that contraception and low fertility rates don’t play a role in lowering infant mortality even in wealthy nations.  Research increasingly demonstrates that child spacing is an important way to increase the odds that any one pregnancy will result in a healthy baby—-the womb literally needs a couple of years between pregnancies to recover.  (Someone tell the Duggars.)  But again, a minor bump in fertility, where a large number of women have one more baby a piece or something like that, wouldn’t significantly impact the infant mortality rate.

It’s also useful to consider how many babies are born to women who really don’t want children right now for a good reason.  Improved access to health care and therefore to prenatal care will help a lot of women living in poverty, but it can only do so much for the really marginalized women, who are homeless or drug-addicted and might be very interested in not having a baby right now if they could just have more means to prevent pregnancy. 

Here’s what I don’t get: When assholes like Steyn start waxing on about how white women need to have more babies—-and believe me, that’s what Steyn is getting at—-I have to wonder how exactly they tend to make their goals happen.  Through whining?  Most people don’t know who Steyn is, and most who do aren’t going to change their decisions based on his half-assed arguments.  Restricting access to abortion isn’t going to get the results Steyn wants, since his explicit goal is to get middle to upper class white women to have more babies.  Those are the women that already don’t need as much abortion because they have more regular access to contraception in the first place.  I googled around, and Steyn seems hostile to federally subsidized contraception, but again, if you took that away, the women he wants having more babies would not be affected, as most can afford contraception on their own without any assistance.  $30-$50 a month for birth control pills is not an onerous burden for middle class people, and even if they have to cut corners elsewhere to afford it, they usually have somewhere to cut.  Poorer women are the people who have to decide between the phone bill and condoms.  Banning contraception?  The googling resulted in articles that used Steyn as a stepping stone to argue for this, but I don’t imagine that Steyn is stupid enough to go that far.  (And if middle class women were forced to have 12-20 kids a pop, then you really would start to see the infant mortality rate rise, because that sort of thing would plunge them into poverty.)  There is literally nothing going for him, which leads me to conclude that his whole obsession with declining birth rates is just a cover for him to demagogue about race and ethnicity under the guise of “concern”.

 

------

Registration is now required! We're still in the process of getting it all squared away, so for the moment don't forget to Login or Register using the links in the upper left menu before starting to write your comment.

Posted by Amanda Marcotte on 11:19 AM • (98) Comments

”...and last I checked, women is where babies come from.”

Right now, there are teams of wingnut scientists working night and day to rectify this oversight.  Reproduction is just too important to leave in the hands of women…

Comment #1: MikeEss  on  09/22  at  11:40 AM

This.  Whenever someone questions my choice not to have kids, and intimates that I’m shirking my “social responsibility”, I point out that our planet is overpopulated, but when the human race is down to meager numbers and threatened with extinction, I’ll happily do my duty.  The way some of these people balk makes it clear that what they meant was a “responsibility” to produce white babies.  It’s old hat that I’m glad is getting press these days; that’s one discourse that needs to be put into context.

Comment #2: Ranylt  on  09/22  at  11:41 AM

You’ve found a Canadian Wingnut. I feel all patriotic…or something.

Mark Steyn is most famous for a Macleans article that prompted an unsuccessful Human Rights complaint against the magazine in which he basically said that Islamic immigration was destroying the world. Now, because an unsuccessful human rights complaint was brought against him, he’s a crusader for “free speech” against any and all laws banning hate speech, which puts him in the ackward position of being a Jewish guy in the same camp as a bunch of neo-nazis.

Comment #3: HonestB  on  09/22  at  11:42 AM

I think it’s fair to argue that Steyn would like to see contraception banned, but has a practical interest in not saying it out loud.  He doesn’t believe in a Griswold constitutional right to privacy, he does believe that the declining birth rate in America is an objective ill, and he’s explicitly not concerned with the ill effects of a birth rate that outstrips American health care’s (specifically women’s health care’s) ability to prevent birth-related deaths.

There’s something going for him, he just wants to blow a dog whistle at it instead of saying it right out.

Comment #4: Ferox  on  09/22  at  11:44 AM

I can see one semi-plausible just-so-story for why lower (or rather declining) fertility rates might be causally linked to lower infant mortality. Namely that it takes a while to retool a healthcare system, especially a somewhat monolithic one like the NHS. So if you were to go from a period of high fertility, with appropriate healthcare resources and culture, to a period of low fertility, there would be a lag before resources were re-allocated and there would be a (relative) surplus of resources for pre-natal healthcare etc. Of course, in practice, countries with high fertility tend not to have the appropriate healthcare resources and culture, mostly for the sorts of reasons you describe.

Comment #5: Ginger Yellow  on  09/22  at  11:47 AM

“his whole obsession with declining birth rates is just a cover for him to demagogue about race and ethnicity under the guise of ‘concern’”

Every single column he writes is about how muslims or some other type of non-white group of people is going to take over America (he’s Canadian, no?) because they are out breeding us.

Comment #6: Mark  on  09/22  at  11:49 AM

Whoops, should have refreshed before blaspheming. HonestB answered my question.

Comment #7: Mark  on  09/22  at  11:51 AM

Here’s a practical question:

Suppose the sex & reproduction-obsessed wingnuts get their way and the American birth rate rises rapidly.  Exactly where will all those Shiny New Americans work, given that we live in a country where the capitalist wingnuts at the top of the economic heap are hell-bent to outsource every single job that can be outsourced? 

Or are they planing so many wars we’ll be grinding them up in military service?  (“Kill all you want, we’ll make more!”)...

Comment #8: MikeEss  on  09/22  at  11:51 AM

This sort of “Ohmigod, we’re outnumbered!” whining is going to become more and more common as more people realize that the population explosion is ending, overall populations will start going down, and the industrialized countries where it isn’t are only going to be able to maintain population by immigration.

Comment #9: KeithM  on  09/22  at  11:56 AM

The lower birth rates in Europe (and potential lower birth rates in the US) aren’t a concern because we’re going to “run out of people”.  The same guys concern trolling birth rates are the ones demanding we install land mines across the US / Mexico border.

This is about blond haired, blue eyed, white babies.  If Paris Hilton isn’t shoved in a cattle crate and forced to breed out the next generation of viral genetically superior offspring, the American civilization will perish.  This is about turning the poor white community into breeding stock for rich white families to adopt out of.  And it clings to the assumption that simply getting more white women pregnant will flood the nation with the next generation of KKK members, but that providing folks in Alabama and Mississippi with quality health care isn’t actually worth the expense.

It’s the Polish/Czech Anti-Iranian Missile shield of fertility policies.  Create a massive expense with no guarantee that it will even begin to accomplish your goals, impose your needs on people you’ve never met and don’t care about, all the while screaming about how the end of Western Civilization is upon us if we don’t jump on the crazy train right quick.

Comment #10: Zifnab  on  09/22  at  12:00 PM

If Paris Hilton isn’t shoved in a cattle crate and forced to breed out the next generation of viral genetically superior offspring…

That’s less of a joke than you might realize. Steyn wrote a column last year chastising Scarlett Johansson for saying she regularly gets tested for STDs. The gist was, How dare this achingly desirable slut engage in sex with more than one person instead of pumping out healthy white babies like God intended?

Comment #11: Bitter Scribe  on  09/22  at  12:10 PM

[Middle- and upper-class women] already don’t need as much abortion because they have more regular access to contraception in the first place.

We also have better access to abortion, and we always have & always will no matter what the legal or geographic limitations.  Money to travel (and passports), paid time off from work, support systems to help with existing obligations, and networks to find sympathetic OB-GYNs to diagnose “menstrual irregularity” have always been more available for affluent women.  Of course, the fact is that we’re also the ones who could somewhat better afford to have unplanned children, which I guess is what really is driving him [more] nuts, as you noted.

Comment #12: latts  on  09/22  at  12:20 PM

Infant mortality rates are NOT just “more or less infant deaths” ... they are FEWER infant deaths PER BIRTH.  The age span for calculating infant mortality can vary, but always goes up to at least age 1.  This does not necessarily mean children who died immediately after birth, but also those who die from often preventable situations and conditions.

Ignorant fuckard!

Comment #13: Ms Kate  on  09/22  at  12:29 PM

It is transparent racism in Steyn’s case (and in general when wingnuts advocate for programs that both sterilize black/brown folks and force white women to have more babies—their ideal). The other day I was watching a segment on the evening news (on the tvee—I know, horrible crap, most of it), but anyway, they were talking about how Japan’s population is rapidly aging (some 25% of the country is over 65 and growing) and they were having a respect the elderly day celebration. Well, anyway, the newscaster addressed how the social programs, health-care, etc. are in jeopardy because of the fertility declines and good health of the elderly in general. Japan has an extremely low immigration rate and historical problems integrating any immigrants (even returning Japanese who relocated to Argentina back in the day). Now, of course its tricky to discuss the racism and xenophobia of other nations when we have our own to deal with, but the Japanese problem is more severe than most of Western Europe’s because immigration is such a touchy subject. Much of Western Europe has concerns with racism and problems integrating immigrant populations (see Suburbs, Paris), but at least they are participating in some immigration to meet their labor needs. The US does as well, though so much is undocumented and a flashpoint for racist hate-mongers (see: Minuet Men).

I’m not trying to tell Japan what to do here, their history of isolation was long and prescribed, but why are any group of people more willing to consider the dismantling of their national systems of social security rather than integrate? This is a big issue for the wing-nuts in the US and Europe—force white women to have more children (denying civil liberties and the right to control one’s own body) or dismantle the health-service (minimal in the US) rather than have a sustainable immigration system? Ugh

Comment #14: Thealogian  on  09/22  at  12:30 PM

“Every single column he writes is about how muslims or some other type of non-white group of people is going to take over America (he’s Canadian, no?) because they are out breeding us. “

Steyn says he’s concerned about culture, but yes, it does hide a concern about race.  He’s against Mexican immigration into the U.S., though that doesn’t fit into his thesis so much because latin americans readily assimilate into U.S. society and are Christians (but Catholic, so that’s probably a strike against).  If anything, if he’s afraid of Islam in the U.S. he should want more Mexican immigration, not less. 

Steyn’s other hidden idea, near as I can tell, is for a Christian theocracy in the U.S. to be created, otherwise the Muslims will outbreed the Americans and there will be a Muslim theocracy.  Which never held much appeal to me, though being an evangelical Christian it probably does to him, even though it conflicts with his hostility towards latino immigrants.

His major thesis is this, though: That a country which introduces social democracy (what he calls “cradle to grave welfare”) will end up with a massively negative impact on birth rates.  His thesis is that socialism and collectivism infantilizes the population; by creating an environment where the state is an eternal parent, the people stay in a perpetual child-like state, never having to work for themselves.  Thus, goes his claim, they never bother with reproduction, entrepreneurship or more than a token armed force.

He sees this as a problem because social programs require a growing population in order to sustain them.  For example: social security and health care are consumed mostly by old people.  Hence, if each generation has half as many children as the previous, then those children will have double the economic burden of taking care of the old.  And their children will have quadruple the economic burden, and so forth, until the entire system collapses.  Thus, according to his thesis, any country that adopts large scale social programs such as medical care is doomed to economic failure.

Comment #15: PeterZeroOne  on  09/22  at  12:33 PM

except of course that paris hilton is neither blonde nor blue-eyed naturally.

Comment #16: chareth cutestory  on  09/22  at  12:34 PM

Another big hole in this ship of stupid: if people have good healthcare their entire life, then they will have longer working lives.  It doesn’t matter if there are a lot of older people if those older people are in good health and are still working rather than in ill health and not able to work.

Comment #17: Ms Kate  on  09/22  at  12:42 PM

I have nothing of substance to add, but Thealogian, “Minuet Men” is surely Typo Of The Day!
I’m picturing them now. And-a one, two three…

Comment #18: MissPrism  on  09/22  at  12:56 PM

If Steyn wants to revamp the academic world to the point that I can have kids no problem without any risk of losing time or money or prestige or having a publication gap, and then arrange wonderful affordable childcare for the next up-to-18 years, then make it easy to finance my kid-to-be’s college education, then I promise I will pop out a baby just for him. (Not *his* obviously—ew—but I will find a suitable dude and spawn right now. Promise.) :p

Comment #19: Bagelsan  on  09/22  at  12:56 PM

“This is a big issue for the wing-nuts in the US and Europe—force white women to have more children (denying civil liberties and the right to control one’s own body) or dismantle the health-service (minimal in the US) rather than have a sustainable immigration system? Ugh”

Steyn adresses the use of immigration to shore up social programs.  To him (and again, I’m not sure I agree with him as I haven’t crunched the numbers, and it’s hard to predict the future), the immigration needs for Westen Europe or Japan are so massive that the host society will end up destroyed in the process.  Taking Italy as an example, which has a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman per lifetime.  (the fertility rate needed to maintain a stable population is 2.1)  Italy’s birth rate is 8 births per 1000 population per year.  Hence, the birth rate needs to be supplemented by 0.8/1.3 or 0.61%, so roughly 5 immigrants per 1000 population per year.  Multiplying that by Italy’s population of 58 million, Italy requires a net 290,000 immigrants per year just to maintain a stable population.

Comment #20: PeterZeroOne  on  09/22  at  12:57 PM

(I make no promises about the *race* of the dude I reproduce with, however. Whoops! :D)

Comment #21: Bagelsan  on  09/22  at  12:57 PM

Too right, Bagelsan. I haven’t a wide maternal streak so it won’t upset me too much if I end up not having kids, but in this career and many others, you’d have to have a LOT of luck to get a stable job by 35. And of course by wingnut logic, if you LEAVE IT TOO LATE (like after twenty-two) you are a shrivelled old crone and shouldn’t be having children anyway.

Comment #22: MissPrism  on  09/22  at  01:02 PM

Mary Steyn thinks he’s slick:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQTl1yD7gic

His entire shtick consists of pissing on your back and then explaining to you that it is raining.

Comment #23: atheist  on  09/22  at  01:02 PM

Steyn says he’s concerned about culture, but yes, it does hide a concern about race.  He’s against Mexican immigration into the U.S., though that doesn’t fit into his thesis so much because latin americans readily assimilate into U.S. society and are Christians (but Catholic, so that’s probably a strike against).  If anything, if he’s afraid of Islam in the U.S. he should want more Mexican immigration, not less.

I like to test anti-Muslim-immigrant people who claim it is all about religion to see if their opposition is really just about Islam by asking if they would prefer to have Catholic Filipin@s, atheist Chinese, or Protestant Nigerians instead.  They generally give a big hell no to any immigrants who aren’t white…and sometimes not even them, if they’re from Eastern or Southern Europe.

Comment #24: Vina  on  09/22  at  01:03 PM

Beyond being simply an issue of numbers, there is a major moral issue to be considered here: by using immigration for your population growth needs, you’re exploiting the poor women of the third world in order to “mine” their children for immigration. 

Further, you have a vested interest in those poor countries maintaining a patriarchal system of oppression of women in order to keep them pumping out said babies.

Further still, you don’t just want unskilled immigrants, you also want their best and brightest.  Their doctors, engineers, and nurses.  Thus, your reliance on immigration keeps the other country perpetually poor and underdeveloped.

Comment #25: PeterZeroOne  on  09/22  at  01:06 PM

From olde Europe here. Europe’s had waves upon waves of migration, invasion, language takeovers, cultural confusion, genocide and so on. The not-so-new immigration waves from Africa and Asia brings us, in no particular order: awesome food, good music, contact with amazing culture and literature, friendly people, and a few religious nutcases and women haters. The host societies were mishmashes, the next ones will also be mishmashes. There was no “pure” society to preserve anyway - never was.

Comment #26: CassieC  on  09/22  at  01:07 PM

My stepmom is constantly concerned about America being overrun by brown people. She’s not subtle or coy about it - she’ll bemoan the impending demise of the white race (because naturally there are no white people outside the US), and she often asks me if I’m afraid of the prospect of being a “minority in my own country.” I usually shrug the question off, and am bewildered at her need for her in-group to be on top for no good reason. It’s akin to O’Reiley’s “white, male, Christian power structure” comment.

Of course, she’ll vehemently deny that she’s racist.

Comment #27: Triplanetary  on  09/22  at  01:11 PM

“they were having a respect the elderly day celebration”

It’s one of Japan’s annual national holidays. They have a Children’s Day, too.

Comment #28: dayraven  on  09/22  at  01:13 PM

“minute” men - as in tiny, small men - about covers it metaphorically.  They seem to feel very small and insecure about something.

Comment #29: Ms Kate  on  09/22  at  01:15 PM

I’m not even sure if he understands how the infant mortality rate is determined.

I’d put money on it.  Witness this nugget of wisdom:

...the countries with the lowest “infant mortality rate” have some of the lowest fertility rates on the planet. That’s to say, it’s not just that they have fewer infant deaths, they have fewer infants, period.

So for Steyn, the “fertility rate” is the absolute number of infants, “period.”  I’d think it’s therefore safe to say that he would consider the infant mortality “rate” to be the absolute number of infant deaths.  He’s a pundit, not a mathematician.  (Dammit, Jim!)

Here’s what I don’t get: When assholes like Steyn start waxing on about how white women need to have more babies—-and believe me, that’s what Steyn is getting at—-I have to wonder how exactly they tend to make their goals happen.  Through whining?

It’s just a call to action, like when the Nazis exhorted German women to bear more (Aryan) sons for the Fatherland.  Of course it’s racist, though you’ll never get him to admit it.  Mark Steyn doesn’t have a racist bone in his body, he just doesn’t want to see the brown people take over.

Comment #30: liberalrob  on  09/22  at  01:20 PM

You’ve found a Canadian Wingnut.

Pandering to an American audience (with American statistics) of course because Canada’s low birthrate surprisingly isn’t really a problem for Steyn.  Due to the high access of healthcare in Canada those in the lower classes and the newly immigrated there for don’t have much high birthrates, in fact among second generation immigrant groups most are usually directly on par with the overall birthrate.  AKA “The brown people are outbreeding us!” doesn’t fly.  So in Canada he tries to go with the “These (brown) immigrants are trying to destroy our country with their terrorist religion!” route.

It would almost be funny to watch him dance around his racist intentions if it wasn’t so fucking sad.

Comment #31: hypatia  on  09/22  at  01:25 PM

Thus, your reliance on immigration keeps the other country perpetually poor and underdeveloped.

Not sure I agree with this.  I’m not in possession of figures but I would assume that at least some of those highly-skilled immigrant workers wind up returning to their countries of origin.  Also many immigrants send “remittances” back to their families in their home country, helping support them.

I’m also wary of adopting the exploitation argument because it’s just the converse of what Steyn is saying.  Do you really want to argue that we need to reduce or halt immigration for the good of the immigrants?  Is it better for them if they remain in their home countries?

Comment #32: liberalrob  on  09/22  at  01:33 PM

We’ve had a great case run of stories over the summer illustrating with perfect clarity how all of this “concern” about “population levels” is a big crock of racist-misogynist shit, where women’s unwilling wombs are commandeered as national property to defeat the alien invasion.

First we had this front-page story calling for women to be given “fertility MOTs”* in order to prevent them from having problems getting pregnant at a later age. As the sort of women who put off child-bearing until a alter age are by definition more educated, earn more etc., you can guess what the “expert” calling for these tests was really worried about - fewer white middle class babies, plus women brazenly having a life instead of fulfilling their natural role as brood mares. But it was alldressed up as concern for overall population levels and the “pain and suffering” of women unable to conceive.

Then, not 3 weeks later, and rather embarassingly for the “expert” you should think, the government published the most recent population numbers, that showed that the birth rate, in a dramatic reversal of recent trends, is on the rise. In fact it’s risen by 1% in the last year. Well, you’d think people would be happy, no? The pension system is safe! The NHS has a future! The welfare state lives to fight another day! Er, no. Actually, it was a festival of racist and xenphobic commentary, because shck! horror! Almost a quarter of the new babies were being born to foreign born mothers!! The great blog Tabloid Watch deconstructs one of the dumbest ones, but this shit wsa all over the press, proving once and for all that just having lots of babies is not what these people are worried about - it’s the right kind of babies.


*An MOT is a yearly diagnostic every car has to go through to make sure it’s road-worthy. Not sure if there is such a thing in the US and if it’s called something else or not.

Comment #33: MarinaS  on  09/22  at  01:33 PM

This country was already overrun by invaders with different melanocyte densities than that of the native population.

How, exactly, we can be “overrun” by the children of those original peoples baffles me.

That said, has Steyn had anything to say about the relatively high birthrate of Hatians and Africans from Francophone Africa who moved to Quebec and get paid for each French speaking baby?

Comment #34: Ms Kate  on  09/22  at  01:39 PM

Suppose the sex & reproduction-obsessed wingnuts get their way and the American birth rate rises rapidly.  Exactly where will all those Shiny New Americans work, given that we live in a country where the capitalist wingnuts at the top of the economic heap are hell-bent to outsource every single job that can be outsourced?

I believe the idea is that if there’s a homeland pool of desperately poor peasants, they wouldn’t have to outsource.  So the trade balance improves too - win-win!

Steyn wrote a column last year chastising Scarlett Johansson for saying she regularly gets tested for STDs. The gist was, How dare this achingly desirable slut engage in sex with more than one person instead of pumping out healthy white babies like God intended?

Wait, what, Johansson has sex with people other than her husband?  Suddenly my whole world seems a brighter place…

A point no-one has mentioned yet is the wingnut meme that the US doesn’t have worse infant mortality because it counts all the poor stillborn babies but the evil Europeans throw unwanted infants to die on dumpsters without counting them.  I once found and cited am OECD study (IIRC) which said “differences in definitions would have no effective statistical significance, and the US still comes out worse off than countries with the same definitions”, but you know how you can’t defeat a wingnut with mere facts.

Watch for it - sure as hell some wingnut will bring it up in a discussion, and yet be unable to provide numbers when pressed.  It’s like the idea that the US homicide rate is that of European countries as long as you don’t count those murderous n- um, urban people nudge-nudge.  The numbers don’t add up, but it doesn’t stop the memes being trotted out to excuse all sorts of social ills.

Comment #35: Phoenician in a time of Romans  on  09/22  at  01:40 PM

just as an aside, infant mortality is always calculated thusly: number of deaths of infants under one year old in a given year per 1,000 live births in the same year. so death of a child from day of birth to first birthday counts as infant mortality rate. it’s an indicator of lots of things, but shitty treatment of women is definitely an important one.
my grandmother had 11 children, is still living (as are all the children—and no miscarriages!), and i am inclined at times to have a huge brood of kids. doing so obviously changes significantly your career options and whatnot, but it seems like having 1 or 2 kids does that too, so if you’re going to have any at all, why not go all in?

Comment #36: JulieSunday  on  09/22  at  01:52 PM

The good news is that sooner or later Steyn’s American Know-Nothing counterparts like Buchanan are going to come into major conflict with the cheap-labour neoCons over this sort of issue. Getting out the popcorn for that one.

Comment #37: Gracchus.  on  09/22  at  01:53 PM

“Do you really want to argue that we need to reduce or halt immigration for the good of the immigrants?  Is it better for them if they remain in their home countries?”

There’s a case to be made for both our arguments.  China didn’t get rich from remittances, China got rich because its’ people stayed in China and made it rich.  On the other hand, India benefits handsomely from remittances from around the Commonwealth and from the cultural exchange of Indian emigrants returning there with ideas and education.  On the other other hand, Mexico hasn’t turned into the next Inida.  So who knows? 

” Europe’s had waves upon waves of migration, invasion, language takeovers, cultural confusion, genocide and so on. “

But not within living memory.  Europe’s countries may have been multicultural in the distant past (and taken as a whole, Europe can be considered so).  But european countries are now more “bicultural” than multicultural; where there is a single monolithic native culture that stands apart from the immigrant one (usually, the immigrants overwhelmingly come from a single source, i.e. Germany and the Turks).  But not to worry!  Europe has an excellent track record of treating well ethnic and religious minorities. 

“That said, has Steyn had anything to say about the relatively high birthrate of Hatians and Africans from Francophone Africa who moved to Quebec and get paid for each French speaking baby? “

I don’t know, but the Quebecois are having a shit fit about it.

Comment #38: PeterZeroOne  on  09/22  at  01:58 PM

“I believe the idea is that if there’s a homeland pool of desperately poor peasants, they wouldn’t have to outsource.  So the trade balance improves too - win-win!”

I think the actual idea may be that if they have enough poor, desperate white people, they’ll never have to hire anyone who’s not white ever again and will be free to move on to phase two.

“A point no-one has mentioned yet is the wingnut meme that the US doesn’t have worse infant mortality because it counts all the poor stillborn babies but the evil Europeans throw unwanted infants to die on dumpsters without counting them.”

Or it’s conjoined twin: The US has a higher infant mortality rate because we always engage in heroic measures trying to save doomed pregnancies while Europe just provides late-term abortions or writes them off as stillbirths.

Comment #39: preying mantis  on  09/22  at  01:59 PM

TheLady, thanks for your comment #33… I’m gonna study that. I comment on some blogs where otherwise perfectly normal & intelligent people, for some reason accept this whole Steyn-ite worldpicture where women putting off kids is like the scariest thing in the world. You linx will be really useful.

Comment #40: atheist  on  09/22  at  03:23 PM

Peter, your “concerns” are silly on a couple of levels.  Or, sorry, not your concerns.  Steyn’s “concerns”.  The notion that you’re “mining” women or anything like that is offensive.  You’re buying right into Steyn’s unwillingness to believe that human beings outside of himself have feelings, desires, and autonomy.  People aren’t being dragged here on slave ships.  They are coming for their own reasons, which we should respect. 

Immigration doesn’t introduce more young people because immigrants—-an undifferentiated mass to Steyn, as you admit—-are just breeding like crazy.  It’s because younger people are more likely to immigrate.  In the U.S., at least, the tendency to have small families is something that’s adopted by immigrant families, if not in the first generation, then usually by the second. 

And most importantly, addressing these “concerns” about social welfare programs by having more babies (I repeat, how does Steyn intend to enforce this?) is suicidal in the long term.  Population explosion, particularly in wealthy nations, means accelerating global warming far past any hope of recovery.  That would make a lot of these concerns about social welfare programs utterly irrelevant, since the world would be facing much bigger problems.  Perhaps Steyn wants that.  Perhaps he’s excited by a world so torn by environmental destruction and the subsequent trade wars that the social compact falls apart.

But I’m not.  We need to come up with more sustainable social welfare.  The notion that we don’t know how to do that is laughable.  The rich, for instance, have a lot of hoarded wealth that could be put to better use.

Comment #41: Amanda Marcotte  on  09/22  at  03:26 PM

Also thanks to liberalrob in #30, re: the ‘fertility rate’ screwup.

Comment #42: atheist  on  09/22  at  03:26 PM

“Population explosion, particularly in wealthy nations, means accelerating global warming far past any hope of recovery.  That would make a lot of these concerns about social welfare programs utterly irrelevant, since the world would be facing much bigger problems.”

I have no idea where Steyn is on the religious spectrum, but American fundnuts couldn’t care less about the environment.  They figure Jesus will be back soon to clean it all up, so in the mean time we can dig, burn, cut down, fish, and pollute like it’s 1965…

“The rich, for instance, have a lot of hoarded wealth that could be put to better use.”

Yeah, no kidding.  If there was anything like a reasonable distribution of wealth in this country, a whole host of problems would disappear…

Comment #43: MikeEss  on  09/22  at  03:37 PM

Here’s Warren Kinsella destroying Steyn:

http://www.warrenkinsella.com/index.php?entry=entry080302-221852

Comment #44: HonestB  on  09/22  at  03:37 PM

*An MOT is a yearly diagnostic every car has to go through to make sure it’s road-worthy. Not sure if there is such a thing in the US and if it’s called something else or not.

Yeah, we really don’t have that here.  In California, they do smog testing every couple of years and that’s about it. 

But don’t you guys have annual checkups and pap smears?  If we added routine testing for STIs to every woman’s annual gyno exam, we probably could avoid a lot of cases of infertility since (IIRC) the majority of infertility cases occur because of untreated STIs like chlamydia, but that would require Americans to get over their sex hysteria, so I don’t see it happening anytime soon.

Comment #45: Mnemosyne  on  09/22  at  03:54 PM

I’ll add that it’s endlessly amusing to me when conservatives argue that the best way to deal with growing social welfare costs is to exponentially increase the number of dependents.  Steyn appears to think children are free.  But if white Americans started having kids to his liking, the demand for education and other forms of social welfare—-including SCHIP—-aimed at children would explode, and would be very, very expensive. 

To make it worse, if white women had as many as Steyn demands, that would lower the number of people actually working and paying taxes dramatically.  I realize Steyn’s calculations were made assuming women contribute no paid work to the economy, but he’s wrong.  But there’s a tipping point for a lot of middle class households where child care and food expenses outweigh the wife’s income, and so she quits her job to provide that work for free at a much lower cost to the household.  The mass exodus from the workplace that Steyn’s little idea would create would be devastating to our economy, and to tax pool.

In fact, I’m beginning to wonder if he’s angling for such a collapse.

Comment #46: Amanda Marcotte  on  09/22  at  03:54 PM

I don’t know, but the Quebecois are having a shit fit about it.

The Anglos probably throw a shit fit because “We’re So Oppressed By The Frenchies! (even though we hold most top level jobs in the province)”, and the Francos probably are having a shit fit because “When we said French, we meant *French* French!”.

Ah. Provincial/constitutional/separatist politics. Or why I don’t regret being a far Left internationalist anti-state radical.

Comment #47: BlackBloc  on  09/22  at  03:58 PM

“In fact, I’m beginning to wonder if he’s angling for such a collapse.”

Their goal is to drown government in a bathtub, so they want to turn the whole country into the bathtub.  New Orleans was just a more literal example of what they want…

Comment #48: MikeEss  on  09/22  at  03:59 PM

What you just said. Because I don’t think they ever pause to consider the economic collapse that would occur if all white women of child bearing age left the paid work force. Because guys like Steyn certainly aren’t going to hire minorities to take their places, so then what?

Comment #49: DC Fem  on  09/22  at  04:00 PM

If Steyn wants to revamp the academic world to the point that I can have kids no problem without any risk of losing time or money or prestige or having a publication gap, and then arrange wonderful affordable childcare for the next up-to-18 years, then make it easy to finance my kid-to-be’s college education, then I promise I will pop out a baby just for him.

Well, see here, that’s the whole problem in a nutshell.

You want to be treated like a human being who happens to be able to carry a pregnancy to term.  Steyn knows good and well you are a walking womb which, should you posess the proper genetics, be used to pop out pretty white babies or, should the genetics be “improper” should be sterilized.

You are female.  Therefore, shut up, stop thinking you can think, take off your shoes, get in the kitchen and fix Steyn a pie.

If you follow the Ampersand link, you can see that the fertility rates of Iceland and the US are very close.  Iceland’s infant mortality rate is much lower than the US’s, however, showing that numbers laugh at Mark Steyn.

Comment #50: Caren-Sun-blocking Creator of Animorphic Pancakes  on  09/22  at  04:02 PM

BTW: infant mortality rates are higher in nonwhite populations.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2009/sep/14/marsha-blackburn-steve-cohen-promote-house-resolut/

Link to news story about memphis infant mortality.

Comment #51: shannon  on  09/22  at  04:08 PM

Yep, Steyn’s concern has always been white babies. Numbers will defeat the horde of darkies at the gate by posting lily-white guards to protect lily-white old farts like Steyn, you see. Or some shit like that.

Anyway, Steyn’s wrong in that regard too. Most of the “concern” is as reliable as the information circulated about Muslim birth rates. White Europeans have started having more babies in recent years, in fact, while everyone else’s is going down. It could be more women are deciding to have careers first, then babies.

Maybe birth rates will stabilize across most of the world in a decade or two to something more sustainable. I’ve always felt modernization and economic prospects determine birth rates. Even if Muslim men are hell bent on out-breeding white Europeans like Steyn believes, you have to ignore the desires of Muslim women immigrating to Europe. They’re just gonna throw up their hands in defeat and forgo affordable contraception? I don’t think so.

Comment #52: Lesly  on  09/22  at  04:13 PM

Their goal is to drown government in a bathtub, so they want to turn the whole country into the bathtub.

MikeEss,

Exactly.  Overwhelming social welfare programs with need—combined with more ill-advised upper income tax cuts—is part of the Wingnuts’ starve-the-beast strategy.  The economic upheaval and wrecked lives it would leave in its wake are justified if it gets women back into the home and the you-know-whats off public assistance.

Amanda,

Decimating the tax base is just gravy, because it allows conservatives to posture about ‘making hard choices’ while slashing all their favorite fiscal targets in favor of pet projects.  We can’t afford more teen mothers on welfare—hello, more Abstinence Education!

Comment #53: Sour Kraut  on  09/22  at  04:21 PM

Muslims will outbreed the Americans and there will be a Muslim theocracy.

It sure seems like Muslim Americans are more moderate than even Muslim immigrants in Europe.  It’s kind of interesting as to why.  Racism and xenophobia aside, our government seems pretty content to leave immigrants the fuck alone as long as they’re here legally.  Governments in Europe seem more meddlesome, whether their intentions are good or bad.

China didn’t get rich from remittances, China got rich because its’ people stayed in China and made it rich.

China is rich because the Chinese government controls everything that goes on there, and that government decided to pour tons of resources into making the country rich.  No other government is going to do that.

A combination of remittances and middle aged professionals moving back home after getting rich in the West is a better option for most impoverished countries.  Most of those countries simply don’t have enough opportunities for bright, educated people.  Leaving a college educated young adult to sell cigarettes on side of the street won’t do anyone any good.

Comment #54: keshmeshi  on  09/22  at  04:37 PM

Exactly.  Overwhelming social welfare programs with need—combined with more ill-advised upper income tax cuts—is part of the Wingnuts’ starve-the-beast strategy.  The economic upheaval and wrecked lives it would leave in its wake are justified if it gets women back into the home and the you-know-whats off public assistance.

When I was a small child, my grandmother bought me a big wodden truck.  She made the mistake, however, of mentioning to my mother that it was advertised as “indestructable”.  So I wnet out and bashed it against a metal pole for half an hour until I broke it.  I was extremely poud of myself - until I realised I didn’t have a truck to play with anymore, at which point I started crying.

I do not recommend this as a political strategy.  I was 3 or 4 years old; what’s the wingnut’s excuse?  And when they look at the US broken before them, are they going to own up to their pride?

Comment #55: Phoenician in a time of Romans  on  09/22  at  04:39 PM

Shoot - my spelling goes all to hell inthe mornings.  I need breakfast!

Comment #56: Phoenician in a time of Romans  on  09/22  at  04:39 PM

“And most importantly, addressing these “concerns” about social welfare programs by having more babies (I repeat, how does Steyn intend to enforce this?) is suicidal in the long term.  Population explosion, particularly in wealthy nations, means accelerating global warming far past any hope of recovery.  That would make a lot of these concerns about social welfare programs utterly irrelevant, since the world would be facing much bigger problems.  Perhaps Steyn wants that.  Perhaps he’s excited by a world so torn by environmental destruction and the subsequent trade wars that the social compact falls apart.

But I’m not.  We need to come up with more sustainable social welfare.  The notion that we don’t know how to do that is laughable.  The rich, for instance, have a lot of hoarded wealth that could be put to better use. “

I disagree with this statement.  The rich don’t have wealth that’s just sitting there “hoarded”, like Scrooge McQuack and his giant vault with the dollar sign on it.  I very much respect your opinions when it comes to feminism, but I don’t agree with you when it comes to economics.  The money of the rich is lended out and invested many times over.  It makes money and in the process it employs people and makes others rich. 

If you’re looking to create an increasing amount of wealth from a declining population, you’ll have to think more creatively than Robin Hood.  Like, think really creatively because it’s never been done. 

“The notion that you’re “mining” women or anything like that is offensive.  “

Ah, but here I disagree.  It’s not an offensive notion, it’s offensive.  Yes, people come to the West for various reasons, but mostly it’s because they’re desperate and they want a better life.  The West preys on that desperation.  Where do they get the idea that they’ll be better off leaving their culture and families behind?  Maybe lies like the American Dream?  Or, so that other Canadians don’t get too smug no this board, the fact that you need to be educated to get into Canada, but that your education will not be recognized and you’ll be driving a taxi for a living? 

Meanwhile, Canada and the US and Europe send free food while blocking food imports into their own countries.  No local farmers can compete with free.  Thus, the West creates dependent welfare ghettoes in the developing world, and generously allows the best and brightest to come in, further consigning developing countries to poverty.  Smug rich kids in the west create bullshit like Doctors Without Borders and Engineers Without Borders, while the west steals the local doctors and engineers.

Comment #57: PeterZeroOne  on  09/22  at  04:59 PM

MikeEss
“Yeah, no kidding.  If there was anything like a reasonable distribution of wealth in this country, a whole host of problems would disappear… “

Look at Europe.  Generous welfare, free health care, free university, full pensions, public housing, highly progressive tax rates, consumption taxes.

(I’ll give you a few moments to swoon)

And yet, their countries are facing bankrupcy because the old consume government benefits while not adding to the economy.  They either have to cut benefits or bring in more suckers to pick up the tab.

Comment #58: PeterZeroOne  on  09/22  at  05:08 PM

PeterZeroOne, you sound like one of those people back in the day who just couldn’t imagine how the world would go on when it became clear that the use whale oil was ending because of overfishing of sperm whales.

You seem to be arguing that somehow all world populations must continually increase or else the world will collapse because of insufficient young people to support the old.

Seen Children of Men a few too many times?

Our grotesque population numbers are killing our environment now.  We don’t need more people, we need to feed, clothe, and shelter the ones we’ve already got.  And we need to reduce the birth rate so we can stabilize the population at some reasonable level.

This is not news, it’s been true for decades.  Welcome to yet another of those “unpleasant truths”...

Also, I’m glad you’ve had so much wingnut Koolaid you buy the concept that our Economic Overlords are the only ones keeping our economy from collapsing and therefore we should happily pay them ungodly sums and keep them from paying reasonable taxes.  I guess the years after WWII and through the 60’s (when high bracket tax rates were much larger than today) never really happened.

It’s a shame the 1890’s had to end, huh?...

Comment #59: MikeEss  on  09/22  at  05:24 PM

But don’t you guys have annual checkups and pap smears?  If we added routine testing for STIs to every woman’s annual gyno exam, we probably could avoid a lot of cases of infertility since (IIRC) the majority of infertility cases occur because of untreated STIs like chlamydia, but that would require Americans to get over their sex hysteria, so I don’t see it happening anytime soon.

Just add it to everyone’s yearly physical. No need to single out women. Admittedly, only women tend to be compelled to go get a physical (one that looks solely at their reproductive systems) by the need for prescription medication that they’ll be on for their entire reproductive lives, but in theory *all* people are supposed to get a physical once a year.

Comment #60: Alara J Rogers  on  09/22  at  05:33 PM

But don’t you guys have annual checkups and pap smears?

No. Women aged 25-49 are usually offered a smear test every three years, and women aged 50 - 65 every 5 years (it can be recommended to be more frequent for individuals who e.g. have had treatment for abnormal cells). Mammograms are routinely offered to women over 50. Contraceptive advice/prescriptions are available at any time from a GP or clinic. And of course any woman with unusual symptoms can get a test. But the routine annual gynocaelogical examination of the USA doesn’t exist, and I don’t actually know the rationale behind it, or what it involves.

Comment #61: Nineveh  on  09/22  at  05:40 PM

Look at Europe.  Generous welfare, free health care, free university, full pensions, public housing, highly progressive tax rates, consumption taxes.

(I’ll give you a few moments to swoon)

And yet, their countries are facing bankrupcy because the old consume government benefits while not adding to the economy.  They either have to cut benefits or bring in more suckers to pick up the tab

That sounds terrible. Thank goodness it’s not true, unless by “facing bankruptcy”, you mean “are in debt, like most countries on earth, and many of them less so than the United States”.

Comment #62: HonestB  on  09/22  at  06:00 PM

PeterZeroOne I believe I’ve seen on some other blog (MGK?). He’s a Canadian conservative. In other words, he’s a wingnut, but since he’s Canadian and not an American, he can actually speak like a human being who isn’t from another dimension. Because in Canada, accusing Obama of being a Communist would actually make you look crazy, and people wouldn’t be giving you a pundit job.

Comment #63: BlackBloc  on  09/22  at  06:06 PM

PiaToR: I guess I’m not sure of my timeline. Johansson was unmarried when Steyn made that remark, I’m sure of that.

PeterZeroOne might have a tiny semblance of a point, in that there’s been a brain drain of trained professionals from Third World countries for awhile. Go to any large hospital in a major city, for example, and it’s a good bet that a lot of the residents and nurses will be from Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and other regions that have large pockets of poverty. Maybe that’s exploitive, but we can sure use them. (I’ll never forget the nurse who tended my father during his last days. She was from Nigeria, and just the sweetest lady you can imagine.)

Comment #64: Bitter Scribe  on  09/22  at  06:19 PM

What’s also stunning is how white male a-holes like these seem to think that pregnancy is SO EASY.

Of course this all ties into the whole “women are strange beings with STRAAANNNGGE vaginas and “times of the month”! I don’t trust ‘em! Just give ‘em what they want so you kin have yer way boys!”

It’s dehumanization.

Comment #65: Danica Lefse Queen  on  09/22  at  06:39 PM

The rich don’t have wealth that’s just sitting there “hoarded”, like Scrooge McQuack and his giant vault with the dollar sign on it.  I very much respect your opinions when it comes to feminism, but I don’t agree with you when it comes to economics.  The money of the rich is lended out and invested many times over.  It makes money and in the process it employs people and makes others rich.

Peter: maybe you missed it—being Canadian and all—but America’s rich corporate and financial masters just used a huge pile of *OTHER* peoples’ money (bad mortgages, credit default swaps) to buy bad investments (fraudulent securities) whose exaggerated value was then used to sucker people into putting even more money into the charlatan’s pot, and then—after the whole thing went foom—received a massive taxpayer-funded bailout from the same elected officials whom their lobbyists bribed to deregulate the market and make the swindle possible in the first place.

I guess you can be forgiven for never having heard of Disaster Capitalism, but that ‘rich people use their money for society’s benefit’ is a fairy tale best reserved for preschoolers.

Comment #66: Sour Kraut  on  09/22  at  06:48 PM

We’ve had a great case run of stories over the summer illustrating with perfect clarity how all of this “concern” about “population levels” is a big crock of racist-misogynist shit, where women’s unwilling wombs are commandeered as national property to defeat the alien invasion.

Brilliant nutshell, TheLady.  I’m stowing that one in the vault for my next cocktail-party birthrate fracas.

Comment #67: Ranylt  on  09/22  at  06:53 PM

PiaToR: I guess I’m not sure of my timeline. Johansson was unmarried when Steyn made that remark, I’m sure of that.

Tramp on my delusions, why don’t you?

The money of the rich is lended out and invested many times over.  It makes money and in the process it employs people and makes others rich.

Money makes money, but SOME money does it by adding value to society and SOME money does it by playing (dangerous) games with the financial system.  I’m all for capitalist profits where these are taken from providing real value to people, but that’s not necessarily all profiteering.

Comment #68: Phoenician in a time of Romans  on  09/22  at  06:59 PM

“You seem to be arguing that somehow all world populations must continually increase or else the world will collapse because of insufficient young people to support the old. “

In reality, the world population has been continually increasing since the dawn of humanity, so a declining world population (as a whole) has never been faced before. 

Did you adress the point I made about Europe?  That even though they have much equitable wealth distribution, they face the same problem?

HonestB
“That sounds terrible. Thank goodness it’s not true, unless by “facing bankruptcy”, you mean “are in debt, like most countries on earth, and many of them less so than the United States”. “

Heh…. ok then, Honest B.  Sure, debt is no problem, if you can stay ahead of the interest payments.  To do that, you need your economic growth to stay ahead of inflation plus the interest payments on your debt.  If you even have one dollar of debt, if your economy isn’t growing, the interest on that debt will eventually cause it to rise exponentially, until it outpaces the size your economy.  And then your country goes bankrupt. 

The trick is, how do you keep economic growth going in the face of a declining population?

Comment #69: PeterZeroOne  on  09/22  at  07:17 PM

“In reality, the world population has been continually increasing since the dawn of humanity, so a declining world population (as a whole) has never been faced before.”

I don’t know if you’ve looked outside your front door recently, but the whole planet is groaning under the weight of humanity and our demands.

If we were still just scattered tiny groups of nomads, you might be correct to be concerned about reproduction and mankind’s future.  However, the damn-nearly 7-billion of us currently hanging around beg to disagree…

As far as (OMG!) never facing a declining population before, first, we’re a long way away from a declining population as a whole.  We’ve struggled for decades to stabilize human populations and still have barely made a dent.

Second, it’s not like human history isn’t riddled with examples of some “threat” or situation we had never faced before.  For some reason, we seem to have generally been extremely successful in facing these issues and dealing with them.  Maybe too successful.

The end of Oil is looming, Global Warming is looming, Global Pollution is looming, the destruction of the Ozone Layer is looming.  There are rapidly declining fish populations, fewer and fewer undeveloped areas, unending political problems that tend toward warfare as a solution, etc., etc., etc.  The list of challenges we face is virtually unending. 

Get a grip and deal with it…

Comment #70: MikeEss  on  09/22  at  07:36 PM

“PeterZeroOne I believe I’ve seen on some other blog (MGK?). He’s a Canadian conservative. In other words, he’s a wingnut, but since he’s Canadian and not an American, he can actually speak like a human being who isn’t from another dimension.”

How kind of you….  hahaha…  believe it or not, I vote Liberal in Canada.  I’m just a healthy skeptic, and I’m well versed in economics.  But even if I were a Canadian Conservative, that would put me to the left of most Democrats. 

Incidentally, a book I highly recommend is called “Economics for People Who Hate Capitalism”, by a left-wing Canadian economist.  (not me).  It explains certain right-wing fallacies that are often supported by economic arguments, and uses economics to support many centre-left policies.

Comment #71: PeterZeroOne  on  09/22  at  07:49 PM

His major thesis is this, though: That a country which introduces social democracy (what he calls “cradle to grave welfare”) will end up with a massively negative impact on birth rates.  His thesis is that socialism and collectivism infantilizes the population; by creating an environment where the state is an eternal parent, the people stay in a perpetual child-like state, never having to work for themselves.  Thus, goes his claim, they never bother with reproduction, entrepreneurship or more than a token armed force

Which is absolutely refuted by studies which show that in times of high unemployment and increased use of social services, there is an uptick in innovation, volunteerism, cultural efforts.

Comment #72: phylosopher  on  09/22  at  08:00 PM

“The end of Oil is looming, Global Warming is looming, Global Pollution is looming, the destruction of the Ozone Layer is looming.  There are rapidly declining fish populations, fewer and fewer undeveloped areas, unending political problems that tend toward warfare as a solution, etc., etc., etc.  The list of challenges we face is virtually unending. 

Get a grip and deal with it… “

I’m not denying any of these challenges.  Well, after CFC’s were banned, the Ozone Layer started repairing itself, that’s kind of old news. 

You’re telling me to get a grip and deal with it.  Fine.  You’re the one who said: “And we need to reduce the birth rate so we can stabilize the population at some reasonable level. ”  Fine, maybe that’s a solution to Global Warming.  But it will not come without a price, which is what I’m trying to get across.  That price will come in the form of stagnant economic growth.  Without sufficient economic growth, inflation becomes a problem and the price of everything increases, and stuff like social programs become a bygone luxury.  That’s something you’ll have to get a grip on.

Comment #73: PeterZeroOne  on  09/22  at  08:04 PM

my grandmother had 11 children, is still living (as are all the children—and no miscarriages!), and i am inclined at times to have a huge brood of kids. doing so obviously changes significantly your career options and whatnot, but it seems like having 1 or 2 kids does that too, so if you’re going to have any at all, why not go all in?
Comment #36: JulieSunday on 09/22 at 12:52 PM

Some advice from a parent of four and a hockey nut:
With one child, it’s easy, the parents can double team,
with two kids, you switch to man-on man defense,
when you get to three, it’s zone coverage
and at more than three, it’s an eternal shorthanded defensive game.

Comment #74: phylosopher  on  09/22  at  08:14 PM

You’re telling me to get a grip and deal with it.  Fine.  You’re the one who said: “And we need to reduce the birth rate so we can stabilize the population at some reasonable level. “ Fine, maybe that’s a solution to Global Warming.  But it will not come without a price, which is what I’m trying to get across.  That price will come in the form of stagnant economic growth.  Without sufficient economic growth, inflation becomes a problem and the price of everything increases, and stuff like social programs become a bygone luxury.  That’s something you’ll have to get a grip on.
Comment #73: PeterZeroOne on 09/22 at 07:04 PM

Bullshit.  That’s old school orthodox economics.  While there’s no denying that there will be some discomforts as we reduce population - change is always uncomfortable - a steady state economy where all real costs and inputs are honestly accounted for and everyone can make a living wage is much more sustainable and secure longterm economy, then the better off humanity is.

Comment #75: phylosopher  on  09/22  at  08:42 PM

I really can’t understand the obsession with European birthrates.  If Italy doesn’t have enough children, that’s Italy’s problem or issue or benefit or whatever.  If Germany has many immigrants, that’s their thing as well.  How that affects us in the United States is something I have yet to have explained.  If Italy wanted to offer boat rides to Mexicans with big families to explore Rome, then we’d probably be worse for it.  So it’s probably a good thing that Italy isn’t going out of its way to get Catholics looking for jobs to emigrate, because we need the cheap labor.  Plus, shipping Albanians to California to pick produce would probably have serious negative consequences for my grocery budget.

The US may soon have a lot more brown-skinned people than it does now.  Which means a lot of the country will resemble a stereotypical image of Tucson more than a stereotypical Des Moines.  And this is scary how, exactly?  Will there not be Jell-O at the grocery stores because there’s too much “ethnic” food?  I really don’t give a crap if my culture or Culture changes, because the underlying American Culture is pretty damn good even as practiced by people who didn’t come over on the Mayflower.  Hell, those Mayflower assholes provided more negative influences than positive ones in the makeup of our laws and culture.

Comment #76: 3letterjon  on  09/22  at  08:56 PM

At 15, you shall not be shamed when you contend with your enemies at the gate.

Comment #77: Mandos  on  09/22  at  09:11 PM

Goodness, who knew that people are still retiring at the ages they were 20 or 30 years ago, that productivity is increasing not one whit, and that in stagnant economies prices increase even when there’s no increase in demand? (Gosh, that sure happened in the 90s in Japan.)

People have already hit on Steyn’s numerical illiteracy, but his example is even worse, because the only country in the world where “four grandparents, two parents, one child” has any traction at all is, uh, China.

Comment #78: paul  on  09/22  at  10:25 PM

Just add it to everyone’s yearly physical.

How’d you convince your insurance company you needed a yearly physical? Or do you pay out of pocket? And do you seriously think we’d be able to get them to cover STD testing?? (mine will cover a couple, but most it considers “unnecessary”. And if something is FOUND in the test, it won’t cover further testing, and often not even the original test.)

Comment #79: slingshot  on  09/22  at  10:48 PM

“Goodness, who knew that people are still retiring at the ages they were 20 or 30 years ago, that productivity is increasing not one whit, and that in stagnant economies prices increase even when there’s no increase in demand? (Gosh, that sure happened in the 90s in Japan.) “

An interesting point about Japan. I’ll have to look into it.  What I do know about Japan is that the economy hasn’t grown since 1990.  I’d attribute it to the lack of net population growth.

In Japan, interestingly enough, in the 1990’s until 2005 deflation was a problem.  Consistently falling prices are also bad in a stagnant economy, because consumers constantly wait for a lower price before purchasing a good.  As demand drops further, sellers are forced to cut prices even more, etc.  At some point producers must lay off workers.

And yes, in stagnant economies prices can increase even without an increase in demand.  It’s called stagflation, and it happens in cases where there’s a key scarce good (i.e. oil) that causes the increase in inflation becomes expensive and too out of reach for consumers.  This happened in the 1970’s, if I remember my economic history right.

In today’s world, a possible source of stagflation would be health care costs.  (Score one for Obama, he’s right on this).  Even though the economy is declining, health care costs continue to rise, as the majority of the population (baby boomers) enters old age, thus demand goes up, even in a declining economy.

Comment #80: PeterZeroOne  on  09/22  at  11:20 PM

I really can’t understand the obsession with European birthrates.  If Italy doesn’t have enough children, that’s Italy’s problem or issue or benefit or whatever.  If Germany has many immigrants, that’s their thing as well.  How that affects us in the United States is something I have yet to have explained.

Moooooslems.  Black and brown MOOOOOOOSLEEEEEMMMMSSS!!  With their Islam and their chanting and their wierd food - MOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEMMMMMMSSSSS!!!!!!

Are you scared yet?

Comment #81: Phoenician in a time of Romans  on  09/22  at  11:34 PM

Uh. Stagflation occurs when you have an exogenous good (see “oil”) whose price is not entirely subject to the usual rules about supply and demand (say, because it’s set by a cartel that can limit production whenever it pleases). Then the amount it contributes to inflation is not really tempered by the fact that people are buying less of it. Healthcare ain’t that, even if insurance companies and hospital conglomerates want us to treat it that way.

(I lived through the 1970s in the company of three professional economists, and so have a fairly decent recollection of what was going on.)

Comment #82: paul  on  09/23  at  12:02 AM

Hey, PeterZeroOne, just curious: What do you think of Michael Ignatieff?

Comment #83: Bitter Scribe  on  09/23  at  12:19 AM

How’d you convince your insurance company you needed a yearly physical?

I took a job with a Giant Evil Corporation that’s giant enough and evil enough to get even us peons really good health insurance.  Did I mention that chiropractic is covered?  And I can get a new pair of glasses every year with my vision plan?

Of course, the price is going up next year.  Again.  Even Giant Evil Corporations are getting hit by the steep rise in prices.

Comment #84: Mnemosyne  on  09/23  at  01:08 AM

Hey, PeterZeroOne, just curious: What do you think of Michael Ignatieff?

I don’t know about him, but hearing that name makes me want to down a shot of some strong alcohol. And I’m straight-edge…

Still an improvement over Stéphane Dion.

Can we get this fucking coalition thing going and kick Harper out of his seat before I need anti-depressants, please?

Comment #85: BlackBloc  on  09/23  at  01:53 AM

The economy can’t continue to increase indefinitely.  In order to do so this would require increasing consumption of resources and an increasing population.  Resources are not infinte and there is only a certain amount of space on the planet where we can live.  Eventually the wheels will come off the cart if we continue on this path and then we are all well and truly fucked.

Comment #86: Commissar Claw  on  09/23  at  03:51 AM

Steyn just needs to mentally reverse the old “one drop” rule. Bam! Problems solved—now we’re got a white president and everything. :p With enough mixing around pretty soon everyone will be “white” (sure they’ll still all be brownish, but they’ll also all be white, dammit! We win!)

Comment #87: Bagelsan  on  09/23  at  04:15 AM

About STI tests, I’ve always been offered the tests at my yearly (or every 19 months or whenever I make it in now that I’m not on the pill), I have frequently taken them up on it, though not always, and had mixed responses from insurance companies. I’ve had to pay for the tests after fact ($300 for whatever the three most common STIs are), and I’ve had them covered. Often, they’ve wanted to know what the justification was - like what symptoms were you having, etc. - which seems bizarre given that with chlamydia and gonorrhea, most women never have any symptoms. But given that most insurance companies don’t cover infertility treatment either, they probably figure they don’t have much to lose by letting your STI go untreated. They’ll cover the Pap because it catches cervical cancer early enough to save them a lot of money.

Comment #88: chingona  on  09/23  at  04:37 AM

Don’t know if it’s still lawful, but companies used to be able to use STI tests as a reason for dropping coverage or increasing premiums, under the pretext that getting tested meant you knew that you were engaging in risky behavior (you know, being alive and adult).

Comment #89: paul  on  09/23  at  10:16 AM

Steyn just needs to mentally reverse the old “one drop” rule. Bam! Problems solved—now we’re got a white president and everything.

It would be nice if the in-group loyalty instinct worked that way instead of the opposite.

Comment #90: junk science  on  09/23  at  10:45 AM

Suppose the sex & reproduction-obsessed wingnuts get their way and the American birth rate rises rapidly.  Exactly where will all those Shiny New Americans work, given that we live in a country where the capitalist wingnuts at the top of the economic heap are hell-bent to outsource every single job that can be outsourced?

Well, their “reasoning” goes sort of like this.  They assume that women will quit their jobs, leaving plenty of room for their sons to have jobs.  Of course, they don’t really think far enough to realize that they wouldn’t their precious sons doing “women’s work” like nursing and housecleaning, but math really isn’t their strong subject and they overestimate the amount of “good jobs” that women are stealing from them.  They also want less immigration and naturally they want the minorities already here to leave or stop having babies, freeing up even more jobs for their sons.  Of course, they again miss the fact that they wouldn’t want their sons to take over many of the jobs that immigrants and dark people are supposedly stealing from us, such as manual farm labor and other manual jobs.  Even if their dreams came true and all the undesirable people were removed from the workforce, that still wouldn’t leave enough jobs for a 5-fold increase in population, but again, math is not their strong point.  If their 15 sons can’t find jobs, it’s because of immigrants, brown people, or women stealing away those jobs.  It’s always someone else’s fault because how could they be expected to know that having unprotected sex would lead to dozens of children?  It must be fate or God’s work they had so many, because they can’t be expected to actually plan things out and realize that actions have results.

Comment #91: bananacat  on  09/23  at  10:52 AM

In reality, the world population has been continually increasing since the dawn of humanity, so a declining world population (as a whole) has never been faced before.

Do you have any, you know, evidence to back up that claim?  The human population was fairly stable before we discovered germ theory, vaccines, and sanitation.  There were times of plague when populations decreased drastically.  However, you can’t really compare those effects to our current society anyway, because it is so different now than it used to be.

Comment #92: bananacat  on  09/23  at  10:58 AM

The rich don’t have wealth that’s just sitting there “hoarded”, like Scrooge McQuack and his giant vault with the dollar sign on it.

Umm, actually, a lot of them do.  I grew up rich and privileged.  I know plenty of rich people who have tons of money just sitting in the bank.  My own father keeps a safe in his basement with a bunch of gold bars in it.  OK, so there’s no dollar sign on it because he’s so paranoid about people trying to steal it, but he certainly hoards plenty of wealth.  In fact, he reminds me very much of the dragon in The Hobbit.  He sits on his precious treasures and never does anything with them, but he’ll breathe fire on anyone who comes too close.  Maybe the “rich” you’re thinking about are the moderately wealthy upper-middle class who want to appear richer than they actually are so they have massive amounts of debt to achieve their lifestyle.  Of all the genuinely rich people I’ve ever known, they all have some hoards of wealth somewhere.  A lot of the wealth is invested in assets like real estate, but most of them also have big old bank accounts full of money.

Comment #93: bananacat  on  09/23  at  11:17 AM

I’m sure that PeterZeroOne would point out that bank accounts aren’t “hoards” because banks take deposits and use them for investments and lending.  So that money isn’t just sitting around.  Gold bars or stacks of bills in a safe, those are hoards and don’t do anything.  I don’t begrudge the wealthy being wealthy. 

What I do have a problem with is the wealthy dictating that their wealth exclusively be used in their own interests as they themselves define them, regardless of the needs of the larger society.  If all people of wealth were equally altruistic that would be one thing; but everyone has their own individual conception of what would be a good use of their wealth, and often those conceptions are in conflict with each other and/or completely irrelevant to the needs of society.  So I don’t see the harm when the society of which the wealthy consider themselves members requires that they give up a portion of their wealth to be used in ways the larger society determines, rather than as they the wealthy determine.  My ideal society will not demand that ALL their wealth be turned over for redistribution; just enough to satisfy the requirements agreed upon as worthy of support.  And the wealthy have at least as much voice in that decision as anyone else, probably more.  So I don’t understand all the bitching about taxation.

Consistently falling prices are also bad in a stagnant economy, because consumers constantly wait for a lower price before purchasing a good.

You forgot to add, “in theory.”  Consumers don’t always wait for a lower price.  If I need to put gas in my truck, a point will soon arrive where I have to buy gas regardless of whether the price is going to drop soon.  Also, consumers aren’t always rational actors with perfect information.  Sometimes people buy things because they want to, or they don’t know the price is going to fall, or they think it can’t fall any further.  My biggest pet peeve with economics is it always assumes rational actors with perfect information in markets with no external influences, and that’s just not a good model for the real world.

Comment #94: liberalrob  on  09/23  at  02:06 PM

The population of Europe declined by up to 40% in places because of the Black Plague. This led directly to the destruction of the feudal system, because agricultural labour shortages allowed peasants the bargaining power to reduce the amount of unpaid labour they had to do for their masters and to effectively lead a decentralised revolution against serfdom.

The new geographic mobility lead to a rapid increase in urbanisation, and so to the creation of economic and social structures that were meritocratic and allowed talented commoners to have access to education, professional advancement and economic mobility outside the confines of the Church. The fertility of untapped human potential was such that it resulted in the unprecedented explosion in the sciences, arts, philosophy and political thought that we call the Renaissance.

The rest, of course is history - the Enlightenment, the Reformation, the Industrial Revolution, the American Revolution… All were built on intellectual and human foundations laid down by the post-plague generations of innovators and inventors.

Fear of population decline is lack of trust in human ingenuity, a belief that nothing short of a mass of labouring grunts can prevent humanity from sliding into barbarism. Civilisation is not built on quantity, it needs quality. Athens flourished when it was small, Rome collapsed because it got too big.

Comment #95: MarinaS  on  09/23  at  04:45 PM

Fear of population decline is lack of trust in human ingenuity,

No. It’s the fear that you’ll be the lord whose fiefdom is taken back by the peasants.

And just the plain ol’ fear that you’ll die.

Comment #96: Well, what?  on  09/23  at  06:12 PM

I don’t understand why he framed his argument that way?  Everyone has four grandparents because each person has two parents who, in turn, has two parents each.  And you’re going to have eight grand-grandparents, also.  Just because a couple hasn’t had more than one child at that point in their lives doesn’t signify anything.  They could be expecting more later on in their lives.  So I don’t get his disingenous argument.  Really?  Every single couple in Europe has only one child? 

Also the infant morality rate is calculated by comparing the rate of infant deaths per the total infants born so…even for a low birth count, a yet smaller infant morality rate determined as a percentage of said birth count still indicates better conditions for that demographic.  So I really don’t understand his argument at all. 

Was he trying to take cheap consolation in that sure, we crank out the babies faster, but, hey, that’s what matters?  Let’s not try keep them as many as we can, alive?  Does he have to congratulate himself on his own low expectations?

Comment #97: btom89  on  09/23  at  07:43 PM

In reality, the world population has been continually increasing since the dawn of humanity, so a declining world population (as a whole) has never been faced before.

Toba eruption.

Comment #98: Devonian  on  09/23  at  07:59 PM
Page 1 of 1 pages
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.