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Dems meeting to figure out MI, FL delegate dilemma today

(NOTE: the festivities started at 9:30 AM ET; Joe’s liveblog is here. You can watch the DNC’s live video feed here and here.)

Today’s the delegate showdown day as the Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee sits down and attempts to come up with a solution for seating some, all or none of the delegates by the renegade states of Florida and Michigan. Those states chose to move up their primaries in violation of party rules and the penalty all candidates and states agree on was that those delegates cannot be seated.

There is supposed to be a huge rally at this meeting; purportedly 10,000 Hillary supporters—along with McCain and Huckabee fans (!?)—will show up. (Joe Sudbay of Americablog is at the Wardman Park Marriott to liveblog the meeting and just IMed me to say there aren’t ten thousand people there, and he has pix.)

“We don’t think it’s a helpful dynamic to create chaos,” David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, said. “In the interest of party unity, we’re encouraging our supporters not to protest.”

...Allida Black, a professor at George Washington University and a Clinton supporter, is helping to organize the demonstration and is hoping that people come from all over the nation. “We’re trying to flood it,” she says

The Clinton campaign believes that all delegates should be seated, the argument being every vote should count, since “the people” didn’t make the decision to move up the primary. On the flip side, since Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan, the results of that primary can hardly be considered a barometer of the will of the voters there; in Florida, he was on the ballot, but did not campaign, something both candidates also agreed to at the outset. Given all of this, it will come down to a decision by the 30 members of the rules committee. And who is on the committee?

The committee has several Democratic heavyweights such as Harold Ickes, one of Hillary Clinton’s top advisers; Donna Brazile, the campaign manager for Al Gore in 2000; and Alice Germond, the DNC secretary. The rest is made up of lawyers and state party members otherwise unlikely to appear on network TV.

And Ickes position is, no surprise. Read below the fold.

“We are confident that the rules and bylaws committee has full latitude to shape the appropriate sanction if they want to,” Ickes said. “And they have the full power to seat both delegations with all delegates and with full votes.”

Obama’s campaign has suggested a 50-50 split of the disputed delegates.

...Ickes said it’s premature to say whether Clinton would appeal to the party’s credentials committee if—as expected—Saturday’s ruling falls well short of that. If Clinton took her case before that committee, it would all but guarantee a potentially damaging fight during the Democratic National Convention in Denver in late August, a situation the party desperately wants to avoid.

“We think it’s not useful to cross streams before we come to them,” Ickes said. “We are hopeful and expectant that the committee will do the right thing, and make sure all the votes were counted in the way they were cast. I think it’s important for us going into this process to assume the best. We do assume the best.”

Random related weirdness…

* Bill Clinton sees a vast left wing conspiracy to tank his wife’s candidacy—and he’s making a list of enemies and checking it twice.

* Denial, delusion, or dedication - you decide:

The press traveling with Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign received an email Thursday afternoon informing reporters they could sign up for travel through June 6 on the campaign website. Given the speculation surrounding plausible outcomes from this Saturday’s DNC Meeting and the final Democratic primaries on June 3, many confused looks passed between reporters on the back of the press bus.

When asked for comment, Clinton spokesman Jay Carson looked past Tuesday’s primaries to the general election.  “There are a lot of places for us to go between June 4 and November,” Carson said.

 

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Posted by Pam Spaulding on 01:39 PM • (15) Comments

Here’s something I still don’t get. Why does Clinton have standing to appeal in this discussion? It’s Florida and Michigan’s state parties that are the ones being sanctioned, not Clinton. It seems to me that both her and Obama’s arguments are the equivalent of amicus briefs in a legal case—they’re not the parties being affected.

Comment #1: Incertus, Nacho Daddy  on  05/31  at  02:30 PM

I clicked through and read the stuff from former president Clinton.  Man.  Is it just me or does he sound like, “Mooooommmm!  Billy’s cheating!  Make him stop!”

Using MoveOn inspired donations to campaign to the superdelegates is unfair how?  Because Clinton isn’t getting that money?  Um.

The figures of power in this country have a sordid history of telling women to sit down and shut up, but you know, if Hilary Clinton wants to have a future with the Democratic Party, she really needs to re-consider what’s she’s doing here.  She could be a power for good in the Senate, esp. if she isn’t worrying about how her votes will play in a presidential campaign. 

MKK

Comment #2: Mary Kay  on  05/31  at  02:46 PM

I just blogged about some of Bill’s comments from that Politico piece. He needs to just shut up on this, if he’s going to pull this kind of crap.

Comment #3: Incertus, Nacho Daddy  on  05/31  at  02:59 PM

It seems so damned cut and dried. Florida and Michigan were told what the consequences would be, yet held their primaries ANYWAYS.

Okay, DNC- now follow through with those consequences. And if you do not, don’t be surprised if the rest of the states do whatever the fuck they want to in the future.

Comment #4: louise  on  05/31  at  03:03 PM

louise,
I’d say that the punishment has already worked—neither Florida nor Michigan had any real influence on the primaries as they’ve panned out thus far, and there’s no deal that the R&B;Committee could make that will change the outcome of the nomination. Even in Clinton’s best case scenario, she doesn’t take the lead, and she’s not going to get that, not out of this committee.

I’m not suggesting that the Committee should do that, by the way, just that it wouldn’t really matter if they did, not in terms of harming the nomination process.

And I still haven’t figured out why Clinton, assuming she’s able to, would be able to appeal this ruling if the two states are happy with it.

Comment #5: Incertus, Nacho Daddy  on  05/31  at  04:13 PM

Okay, DNC- now follow through with those consequences. And if you do not, don’t be surprised if the rest of the states do whatever the fuck they want to in the future.

Because, if those brain surgeons haven’t done the math, let’s think about the numerical consequences - the two satans of electoral politics, Iowa & New Hampshire, have 45 & 22 delegates, respectively.

Michigan and Florida had 128 and 185 delegates allocated.  Even whacked in half (64 & 93), that still places them with more influence overall than the traditional calendar leaders in numbers.  While this election year has shown that a down calendar placement has been advantageous, I question if the politicians will really decide to hold to the DNC calendar in the future.  There’s too much to be gained even if it costs you half of your representation.  Not only will the candidate get mo’ from an early primary or caucus win, they’ll still pull more delegates than those little snobby states.

Additionally, if you do number statistics, you’ll realize that with a delegate penalty that also lowers the overall number of delegates available simply only slightly lowers the importance of your delegates’ value.  If the total number of delegates nationally was static, causing the violating state’s delegate seats to be reshuffled to other states, the penalty would be much more effective.

Disclosure: I’m an Iowa voter and in favor of primary reform.

Comment #6: idiosynchronic  on  05/31  at  04:13 PM

Incertus - You’re brilliant in my book but this:

I’d say that the punishment has already worked—neither Florida nor Michigan had any real influence on the primaries as they’ve panned out thus far, and there’s no deal that the R&B;Committee could make that will change the outcome of the nomination. Even in Clinton’s best case scenario, she doesn’t take the lead, and she’s not going to get that, not out of this committee.

. . is bullcrap.

Whom have we been talking about since Super Tuesday and the numbers statisticians began saying that the Democrats couldn’t resolve the nomination until at least the end of the primaries?  Whom is R&B;committee meeting about today?  Whom has the Clinton campaign been using as a <i>causus belli</u> for the last few weeks?

It may not change the outcome or the totals today, but Florida and Michigan have been talked about for months now, and many still believe that even talk about how naughty you’ve been is still good publicity.

Comment #7: idiosynchronic  on  05/31  at  04:19 PM

My point was simply that the states and candidates should stick to the rule laid out by the DNC before the first vote was cast. To do anything else negates the entire process, IMO.

Change the processes involved? Sure- great idea. But in the “off season”.

(and major THANKS!!! for reinstating the “Blaspheme” key…) smile

Comment #8: louise  on  05/31  at  04:52 PM

Whom have we been talking about since Super Tuesday and the numbers statisticians began saying that the Democrats couldn’t resolve the nomination until at least the end of the primaries?

We—the people on blogs who follow this stuff obsessively—have been talking about it, but there’s no indication that voters in other states gave Clinton’s Michigan or Florida wins any importance. They didn’t give her any momentum, the way her New Hampshire wins did. Obama’s second place in FL and non-appearance in MI didn’t cause a drag on his campaign either. So in that respect, MI and FL, no matter what happens today, have been punished, because they didn’t have any influence on the overall process. Again, no matter what happens today, Clinton’s not going to win this thing, even though she won those two states. Nothing is really going to change between now and the convention.

Comment #9: Incertus, Nacho Daddy  on  05/31  at  05:33 PM

Bill is crazy right now.  I think it’s really funny (in a sad way) how pissed off he and Hillary are at MoveOn.org.  Heaven forbid any other group develop political power.  Heaven forbid a group that’s not the Republicans complaining and attacking the DNC.

And I love Bill’s remark that the MoveOn crowd all have college degrees and can pay for the gas in their Lexus’.  As if a college degree was a bad thing.  As if Bill and Hill didn’t have them.  As if grass roots organizations were the elite instead of the outsiders.

The Clintons are behind the times.  They probably really wish net-neutrality had been destroyed long before this campaign started.

As for the delegates, I think the rules actually state that the states were supposed to lose half their delegates, not all of them.  So that’s what can be debated.  Once they settle that, then they need to say how and what the rules will be in the future.  I like the idea of taking their delegates and then allocating them to the other states.  Not quite sure how that would work, but that’s for the R&B;committee to figure out, right.

I would really like it if Hillary would stop now.  I know she won’t, but she and Bill are really making me dislike them more and more each week.  Such sour grapes!  Do they really think they are winning anyone over with this strategy?  IS anyone being swayed to HRC’s side anymore?

Comment #10: Caren, Creator of Animorphic Pancakes  on  05/31  at  05:46 PM

I don’t think so, Caren; even the superdelegates have made up their minds. But they don’t want to dirty their hands at this stage or get the mud being slung around on themselves… or they are afraid of eventual retribution by the Clinton folks.

A reasonable concern, actually- and that this is even remotely a POSSIBILITY should be enough to sour folks away from B&HC;. These people have gone being a truly remarkable pair back in the ‘90s to modern-day thugs, desperate to retain their power. Sad and pathetic; I wish this hadn’t happened and that his legacy had been better.

Comment #11: louise  on  05/31  at  05:52 PM

And I love Bill’s remark that the MoveOn crowd all have college degrees and can pay for the gas in their Lexus’.  As if a college degree was a bad thing.  As if Bill and Hill didn’t have them.  As if grass roots organizations were the elite instead of the outsiders.

The way I read those words, Caren, Bill was talking about people on tv who were, in his words, “dissing Hillary,” so I don’t think he was going after the Moveon crowd, though I thought so initially. My reply, as I said on my blog, was “yeah, and so are the ones talking nice about her. Big deal.”

As for the delegates, I think the rules actually state that the states were supposed to lose half their delegates, not all of them.
The rules say that that’s a minimum penalty, but not the only penalty. The Committee slapped them down, as the chair pointed out today in her opening remarks, to send a message to other states not to jump the queue. They’ll probably lower the penalty today, but according to the DNC lawyers, can’t go below the 50% threshold.

Comment #12: Incertus, Nacho Daddy  on  05/31  at  06:19 PM

The meeting is over.

HRC just announced she will go to the convention.
Well, it’s up to the party leaders how to make her understand she loses.

PS. theme design really need changing. it’s hard to read quickly. (too many colors and froo-froo)

Comment #13: squashed  on  05/31  at  08:40 PM

So when do we get to just start straight up ignoring her?

I mean, I would guess that Ron Paul is also “taking it to the convention”.  What does taking it to the convention actually mean, except that she’ll continue to blow campaign money she doesn’t have?  At this point she cannot actually win.  Clearly she refuses to go home.  So why don’t we just do the rational thing and just stop paying attention to her campaign?

Comment #14: The Opoponax  on  05/31  at  09:11 PM

I listened live to the debate on C-Span, and they’ve come down with a reasonable compromise that will satisfy nobody.  The most important issue IMO is that the Florida primary was dictated not by the Democrats but by maneuvering on the part of the GOP to put the Dems into an untenable position.  Presumably they hoped to either force an acrimonious fight over delegates or to create a situation where Florida Dems would be so pissed at the national party they’d turn out in insufficient numbers to swing the state for the Dem nominee.  They managed pretty well on the first, and may yet manage on the second.

The root of the Florida problem is that Republicans get to vote on when the Democratic primary falls, and that is directly due to the fact that the parties are intertwined with the government to an unreasonable extent.  The solution IMO is to bring the primaries fully under the control of the parties and not use any taxpayer money to support party activities, including primaries.  That way the GOP has no influence over the timing of Dem primaries, and also no influence over who gets to vote and how the votes are counted.

Comment #15: togolosh  on  05/31  at  09:22 PM
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