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Next entry: Because hard work deserves this reward Previous entry: Your Summary Of The Eric Massa Interview On The Glenn Beck Variety Hour

Like it or not, flu shots work

This is super interesting.  (Via.)  The NY Times is understandably fascinated by the cultural and effort-related aspects of this story, which involves a bunch of researchers swooping in and using an isolated religious farming communities to conduct a test on disease transmission, but the results of the test are just as, if not more fascinating. The finding was straightforward—-vaccinating a little over 80% of the children and adolescents in the community against the flu vaccine created what they deemed a 60% “protective effect” in the community.  Not just in children; in the community. 

First of all, those of us who always suspected children are disease-ridden monsters are proven totally correct.  Just kidding!  Well, sort of.  It’s been a long-standing bit of folk wisdom that people who spend a lot of time around little kids get sick more.  I don’t know if that’s the reason to target children with these interventions or if it’s something else entirely, though.  But it doesn’t really matter.  What does matter is that public health officials who want to target children for mass inoculation against things like the seasonal flu or the swine flu are right to want this.  To save Grandpa, vaccinate Junior.  Well, ideally vaccinate both, but that doesn’t always happen.  Mass vaccination of children can go a long way to preventing thousands of deaths, especially amongst the elderly, every year, though.

Of course, this sort of intervention runs up against an enormous political wall in the U.S.  It’s not just the anti-vaccination movement, though that’s part of it.  The anti-vaxxers have a foothold in this country, because Americans are irrationally individualistic. To make it worse, there’s a lot of zero sum thinking in our culture.  I think the anti-vaccination theories take off for this reason; people are convinced that selfishly refusing to join in herd immunity that can save lives must mean some gain for the individual.  And without any evidence of this, they just make shit up about the dangers of vaccines that by and large don’t exist. 

Fighting this problem isn’t going to be easy.  For those interested, I highly recommend checking out this interview the National Science Foundation did with Dan Kahan about research into how attitudes and cultural alliances feed into vaccination paranoia. He’s talking about HPV vaccines, so unfortunately the results are going to be skewed by prejudices about female sexuality, but he also makes some important points about accepting that you already probably have a good idea on who the opposition is when it comes to any version of this struggle.

Though the flu shot doesn’t have the sexuality aspect to get up right wing fears, there is still a lot of resistance from both right wingers who immediately reject anything perceived as done for the common good, and from the more stereotypical anti-vaxxers, who are ostensibly liberal but tend towards an individualistic framework.  (You know, like the people whose environmentalist tendencies are expressed more in worrying about the toxins in non-organic food than the pollution in low income communities they don’t live in.)  Kahan has a very immediate way to deal with science education on a case-by-case basis, which is to rely on tribal loyalties and authority.  For right wingers, get James Dobson to push it.  For yuppies, get Oprah.  God, if Oprah actually had a show promoting mass immunization of children against the flu, that would change this debate overnight.

In the long term, we really have to change the culture.  And not just because of resistance to public health initiatives that trip up the American loathing of having to think of themselves as members of a community instead of lone wolves triumphing over a cruel world.  The continued existence of libertarianism is reason enough.  I’m an optimist enough to think that people can continue to respect individuality while not being individualistic.  In fact, it’s becoming increasingly obvious in our culture that individualistic thinking is correlated with a high degree of conformity, and if you don’t think that’s true, go to a teabagger rally and check out the clones. And on the flip side, check out cities that manage to have both diversity and a sense of the common good.

 

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Posted by Amanda Marcotte on 11:26 AM • (104) Comments

“Irrationally individualistic!”  Great phrase that sums up the entire mindset!

The funny is that this mindset of irrational individualism contrasts with a major strain in conservative thinking that says that liberals are the ones who are overly individualist.  For example, women are selfish for not having babies for the common good of the race.  Somehow, enlightenened self-interest and individual rights become less important when women want to lead lives independent of the traditional family model of homemaker mother and breadwinner dad.

Comment #1: Laurie  on  03/10  at  12:30 PM

Pah - a tissue of lies. When I had a flu shot in 2005*, I still got flu that year, so obviously flu shots don’t work, except in isolated religious communities, where it’s actually GOD that is protecting the righteous


*admittedly it was in the UK with the NHS so god knows what I actually got, I’m lucky it wasn’t a barium enema by mistake

Comment #2: firefall  on  03/10  at  12:35 PM

Just on the basis of all the folks I know on Facebook who are teachers and/or parents, and whose status updates are a seemingly nonstop litany of “The kids are sick/I’m sick/My spouse is sick/The kids are sick again/Dangit, I’m tired of being sick!” while I’ve had a (knock on wood) mostly illness-free year… Yeah, I’m entirely a believer in the idea that kids are much more likely to get sick and to spread what they catch to the adults who they’re in contact with.

I could actually see Dobson being more likely to push vaccinations than Oprah. Can’t alienate Jenny McCarthy, dammit!

Comment #3: Scott  on  03/10  at  12:36 PM

Laurie @#1 beat me to it.  It’s a keeper.

Comment #4: Ranylt  on  03/10  at  12:38 PM

“God, if Oprah actually had a show promoting mass immunization of children against the flu, that would change this debate overnight.”

I’d like to believe that too, but I wonder if at least a large percentage of Oprah’s audience would reject her rather than accept her supporting something like that.  She pushes the self-help stuff a lot, and promoting science-based community action flies in the face of that.  She strikes me as far more likely to accept Jenny McCarthy’s wackiness than agree with boring (but correct) scientists…

Comment #5: MikeEss  on  03/10  at  12:42 PM

In the long term, we really have to change the culture.

Which means in the short-term we really have to change public education, especially in science and math. When you understand concepts like “herd immunity” and “parts per million” it becomes a lot more difficult to buy into anti-vaxxer woo, even if Oprah is promoting it.

Comment #6: Gracchus.  on  03/10  at  12:48 PM

Has anyone tried asking Oprah?

Comment #7: Dr. Psycho  on  03/10  at  12:50 PM

I remember seeing a very similar study from Japan a few years ago. They used to concentrate on getting high-risk groups vaccinated (the elderly, compromised immune systems, etc.) before kids but found that they had much better outcomes with the high-risk groups if the kids were immunized first.

Comment #8: Mnemosyne  on  03/10  at  01:01 PM

I am not a big fan of vaccines mostly because I grew up in a family that really over-used medicine   any time my dad sneezed he was at the doctor for anti-biotics, any kind of pain or soreness led to some sort of surgery all of which eventually ruined his health.  Later I dated somebody who had a similar affliction, they were at the doctor weekly, and in both cases they were first in-line for their flu shots and would practicaly riot if they didn’t get one(last I heard she was addicted to pain meds)
I am not saying all medical care is bad, or that all vaccines are bad, but I am somewhat skeptical that all doctors really have your best interest at heart when they treat you, or when they devolope a flu vaccine.

Comment #9: John Rove  on  03/10  at  01:04 PM

Did you read the post, John? It’s not all about you.

Comment #10: Steve LaBonne  on  03/10  at  01:11 PM

Hey Steve:
I get that it is probably better for society if everyone is vaccinated, but it is not completely crazy to be skeptical of modern medicine.  Our for profit medical system creates all sorts of incentives to overtreat and in the end health-outcomes are not better when this happens.

Comment #11: John Rove  on  03/10  at  01:17 PM

So you’re willing to knowingly jeopardize other people’s health to appease your ill-defined, ill-informed doubts. Got it.

Comment #12: Steve LaBonne  on  03/10  at  01:20 PM

You’re not just talking. If you and some other liberal bloggers pushed your readers to email Oprah about this issue, it could make it on the air. She often does stories that she saw in the New York Times. Yes, she has had Jenny McCarthy on to spread heresy about vaccines but that was a few years ago. Her latest kick is telling people not to text and drive which she looks at as a public health issue. I think the the “your kid could get sick and kill Grandma” angle is the one that would most appeal to her. I’m willing to email the Oprah show but I think it would only work if thousands of us emailed and suggested this as a show topic.

Comment #13: DC Fem  on  03/10  at  01:35 PM

When my gf gets sick or I get sick it’s pretty much a given the other will get sick in the next 5 days, unless we take extreme precautions to stop it. Living together with another person is the easiest transmission belt.

Now if you’re living alone you completly eliminate that vector of transmission. If you live with 2 to 4 other people it gets exponential really fast. Each of those kids go to schools and are in contact with thousands of other kids. If they’re different ages they might even be at different schools. And each of them have parents who (I suspect in most cases) go to two different workplaces. So if someone gets sick at my workplace, some random guy in a completly different area of the city might be only 5 transmissions away from getting sick (coworker to me, me to my kid, my kid to other kid, that kid to parent, parent to random guy). That seems fine if you only consider that one chain, but the chains get exponential explosions at both workplaces (small ones) and at the school (a very large number of vectors).

It’s not surprising that having kids has such a large effect on overall receptivity to infections.

Comment #14: BlackBloc  on  03/10  at  01:40 PM

I am not a big fan of vaccines mostly because I grew up in a family that really over-used medicine any time my dad sneezed he was at the doctor for anti-biotics, any kind of pain or soreness led to some sort of surgery all of which eventually ruined his health.

Yes, rebellion against your parents is the perfect reason to risk your health and that of others in your community. [Insert sarcastic eye-roll here.]  This is a very perfect example of being “irrationally individualistic”.  You don’t want to be like your parents who did something wrong, but rather than figure out the most logical thing to do, you decide to do the opposite of what your parents did just to differentiate yourself from them.

Comment #15: bananacat  on  03/10  at  01:44 PM

but it is not completely crazy to be skeptical of modern medicine.

The term you are looking for is “doubtful”.  “Skeptical” simply means considering evidence regardless of your conclusion.

Comment #16: bananacat  on  03/10  at  01:45 PM

Also, kids are not the greatest at hygeine.  They frequently don’t wash their hands when they should, they touch stuff adults don’t, they share drinks, food, toys…

This is not me knocking kids in any way, but they don’t have the cause and effect of “If I lick this sucker that Jake just licked, I will get Jake’s cold.”  Let alone, “If I touch this rail on the bus that eleventy-million other people have touched, I should probably wash my hands…”  Some kids do, but a lot don’t.

Comment #17: GeekGirlsRule  on  03/10  at  01:46 PM

First of all, those of us who always suspected children are disease-ridden monsters are proven totally correct.

Actually, one of my microbiology professors used to refer to children as “filthy little buggers,” when talking about disease transmission.

Comment #18: FashionablyEvil  on  03/10  at  01:50 PM

??? Is this some sorta SURPRISE that kids are vectors of disease?  Jesus Murphy, weren’t you guys ever kids? OF COURSE they are, they’re filthy.

Also, parents will let children (admittedly, usually toddlers) stick their grimy little paws in their (the parents’) mouths, face, whatever, despite the fact that the kid was just crawling around on the floor.

My point is: is ANY one surprised?

Comment #19: Eric_RoM  on  03/10  at  01:56 PM

I think it’s a little more complex than simply insane individuality at work.

Even though the “bad vaccines” are statistically rare, they scare the everliving shit out of people and people have longer memories about mercury levels than they do about the 1918 flu pandemic. Especially when most people look at vaccines as simply another form of pharma—every time a prescription is yanked off the shelf because it has this unforeseen side effect of death, people apply those fears against the entire product of pharma, including vaccines. When you introduce something to an entire population, people have to decide if the benefit of being vaccinated against a disease is worth the risk that there might be unaccounted-for longterm effects resulting from something in the vaccine. So unless you or someone very close to you has compromised immunity, the benefit of being vaccinated against a disease that you don’t think is going to kill you (most people don’t think of the flu as a deadly disease) is not going to be as dire as the possibility that the vaccine is going to cause flipper babies or permanent elbow stink. Most people don’t think of Measles or Mumps as a deadly disease, and Rubella is so vanishingly rare that people imagine it’s extinct like Polio, that when they sit down to ponder the risk/benefit of their kid having to stay home for a week with a disease they may have survived just fine when they were a kid versus the infinitisimal possibility that the vaccine will cause autism in their kid, they may decide that it’s not worth it, because they’re not thinking their kid could die. Other people don’t enter into the equation—from what I hear about parents, baby’s safety comes first, always. If they honestly think that vaccinating their kid will make their kid autistic and not vaccinating might make them sick for a few days and then they’ll get over it and have the immunity from there on out anyway, Paw-Paw’s heath is simply not in that equation.

Comment #20: Mighty Ponygirl  on  03/10  at  02:01 PM

  First of all, those of us who always suspected children are disease-ridden monsters are proven totally correct.

Actually, one of my microbiology professors used to refer to children as “filthy little buggers,” when talking about disease transmission.

Well, anything that’s perfectly willing to run around with yellow snot trails dangling out of its nose then demands that you pick it up and shower it with kisses fits that description perfectly.

Comment #21: Mighty Ponygirl  on  03/10  at  02:04 PM

Anecdotal, but I was sick maybe once every two years before our daughter started day care six months ago. I’ve been sick four or five times since.

Comment #22: felagund  on  03/10  at  02:05 PM

*admittedly it was in the UK with the NHS so god knows what I actually got, I’m lucky it wasn’t a barium enema by mistake

Happens in the US as well, I’m afraid. Difference is, in the US we’d then be billed several thousand for the enema.

Comment #23: Llelldorin  on  03/10  at  02:07 PM

Mighty Ponygirl, 

My friends with kids often refer to them as the “petri dishes.” 

After coming down with Whooping Cough last year because I did not know vaccines wore off (does anyone ever mention this to people who don’t travel?  No, because we rely on herd immunity to keep those illnesses down) I would like to send a big hearty Bite Me to people who don’t immunize their children.  That shit is miserable, and I can understand how it could kill people easily. 

Thing is, most anti-vaxxers come from my age cohort, and probably have never SEEN Whooping Cough or it’s buddies Diptheria, Mumps, Measles or Rubella, so they don’t know how severe those illnesses are.

Comment #24: GeekGirlsRule  on  03/10  at  02:12 PM

the focus on children isn’t just because of their poor hygiene. schools are great disease incubators because children are exposed to tens or hundreds of people every day for extended periods of time.

some epidemiologists i know speak strongly about communal exposure, in schools and in other activities like sharing food. the pressure to raise kids in sterile environments may be leading to collectively weaker immune systems, which could in turn aggravate disease rates and severity. not to mention the fact that overuse of antibiotics and germ-killers leads to overconfidence and breeds resistant germs.

Comment #25: cj  on  03/10  at  02:20 PM

A couple years ago when I accidentally stepped on a rusty nail while doing some home improvement* I went off to get my tetanus shot when I was overdue and they lumped the Whooping Cough vaccination in with it. It’s not just people overseas who need to worry about it, I guess. Enough people have gotten it here in the states that the herd immunity had to be addressed.

Another side of this (that I sorted of touched on at the end of my huge block of scary unbroken text) is that we really do have this idea that people are going to fight off disease naturally, and that whatever antibodies the body comes up with on its own are going to be superior to any artificially imposed antibodies. Even when we refer to kids as the petri dishes, we’re sort of calling that out: that children are naturally disease ridden monsters but that part of being a child is building up those immunities so that you aren’t a disease-ridden adult, and the process is natural, has worked for millions of years (except when it didn’t but dead kids tell no tales) etc. I’m not sure if it’s individualism gone crazy as it is historical myopia. If the MMR vaccine had been available in 1850 people would have been on that like stink on shit and there wouldn’t have been any hand-wringing about it.

Comment #26: Mighty Ponygirl  on  03/10  at  02:23 PM

It’s a factor that goes all the way back to the earliest public health efforts. Why should I inconvenience myself because those quacks say its good for my community?

Comment #27: CBrachyrhynchos  on  03/10  at  02:24 PM

* BTW, did you know that my health insurance company viewed the tetanus shot after stepping on a fucking rusty nail as “unnecessary”?

Comment #28: Mighty Ponygirl  on  03/10  at  02:24 PM

Also, kids are not the greatest at hygeine.  They frequently don’t wash their hands when they should, they touch stuff adults don’t, they share drinks, food, toys…

There is discussion within the medical community that our serious over-use of “hygiene” products as adults compound our issues.  If anything children due to their underdeveloped immune systems and susceptibility in general is what the real problem is.  Sure some of them should wash their hands more but so should most adults.  As for the sharing of drinks, food, and toys?  It really isn’t that big an issue.  Spending 8 hours a day in close proximity to each other basically gives whatever germs they have to each other anyways.  Just as when we’re adults, if you work in an office in close proximity (within room distance) then sharing food, drinks, and office supplies aren’t going to change much. 

The whole vaccine issue would just be solved if public school made a “vaccinate or get out” policy.  That way the rich children could suffer and die at the hands of their over-protective parents and the underclass children will inevitable take over due to their need to go to school.  Most public schools already have rules about vaccinating for the most basic plagues, through flu on top of it.

Comment #29: Xeranar  on  03/10  at  02:32 PM

Sometimes you almost wish herd immunity didn’t work so well…

The slightly paradoxical thing about kids is that in a lot of cases you want them to be grubby little petri dishes. That way their immune systems get exposed to lots of not-particularly dangerous stuff, they don’t get it when they’re adults and completely unprepared, blah blah blah. (The studies suggesting that kids who grow up in relatively sterile environments tend toward excess allergy etc are by no means bulletproof, but certainly make sense from an evolutionary standpoint.) but yeah, kids are such incredibly powerful vectors: lousy hygiene, out in public a lot even when sick, no personal boundaries…

I like the “irrational individualism” thing, because for so many other things “conservatives” are deeply into forcing kids to behave in regimented ways that benefit the corporate state. It’s just things that are good for the kids and the people around them that draw all the fire.

Comment #30: paul  on  03/10  at  02:47 PM

Hey Catgirl:
Here is the thing with this study it took place in isolated religous farming communities, most of us don’t live like that; Ultimately this study says a lot about people who live in isolated religous communities and what might be good for their health, but it doesn’t say much to people who live in ethnicaly diverse, dense communities. 

Science is about questioning stuff and I think it is wrong to dismiss everyone who questions vaccines and their benefits as flat earthers, you can question “scientific findings” without being anti-science.

Comment #31: John Rove  on  03/10  at  03:02 PM

I was born in 1950 before the vaccination era, and I remember clearly the polio scares—pools, lakes closed, mass death for children, before the Salk vaccine, which was dealt out in my local school in order to get the most kids covered.

(My father spent 6 months in bed, during the Depression with a “mild” case of polio—turned out he didn’t die, or wasn’t partially paralyzed, although both had been predicted as possibilities—but screwed the future rocket scientist out of some basic math lessons in school.)

Among my brother, sister and I in the 1950s, one, the other, or all, were infected and suffered through mumps, measles, chicken pox (don’t scratch!) and “scarlet fever” so severe a quarantine notice was pasted to our front door, and a doctor came to the house to treat us (a rare event even 50 years ago.)

Is that the world the irrational individualists want to return?

However, recently a friend’s grandchild was given all his vaccines in one go by a doctor, instead of being spaced out as recommended (maybe because the health insurance refused to pay for another visit) and the poor toddler’s immune system was wrecked for at least a year.

Unbelievable suffering was involved: so, yes, the irrational individualists are selfish idiots, but they and we are correct to be somewhat wary of the Western medicine health system as it exists in the U.S. currently.

Comment #32: judybrowni  on  03/10  at  03:09 PM

admittedly it was in the UK with the NHS so god knows what I actually got, I’m lucky it wasn’t a barium enema by mistake

I’m pretty sure this is supposed to be a (bad) joke - but y’know what - screw that.  The NHS isn’t some incompetent, creaking socialistic machine that might give you a barium enema by mistake.  It has it’s own problems, but most times I’ve needed medical attention the NHS has been efficient, effective, and most importantly of all - free at the point of need.  So stop with the stupid, irresponsible and ignorant “anecdotes”.

Comment #33: Katherine  on  03/10  at  03:14 PM

Here is the thing with this study it took place in isolated religous farming communities, most of us don’t live like that; Ultimately this study says a lot about people who live in isolated religous communities and what might be good for their health, but it doesn’t say much to people who live in ethnicaly diverse, dense communities.

If you’re going to question science, it might be helpful to actually understand science.

You know why they did the study in an isolated community?  Because that way, there were no confounding factors like not knowing if the guy next to you on the subway had just flown in from Tanzania.  They were able to prove their case without having to throw out a bunch of data from things they couldn’t control.

This study is actually more valid in your community than it was in the isolated community because you have even more possible avenues for these diseases to find you.  You are far more likely to pick up one of these diseases from someone you pass on the street than someone in an isolated farming community was to pick it up from one of their neighbors.

If you’re going to question things, please have at least one clue what the fuck you’re talking about.  Thank you.

Comment #34: Mnemosyne  on  03/10  at  03:25 PM

For us epidemiologists, this isn’t news.  It has long been known that school kids breed community outbreaks that kill seniors.  I was pretty annoyed that this knowledge wasn’t applied to the H1N1 outbreak - they should have gotten the kids first, damnit!  Then epidemics could not get a toe hold.  Instead they took the individual protection approach - and people such as myself, with asthma and kids to give me germs, got hung out to dry.

Comment #35: Ms Kate  on  03/10  at  03:30 PM

BTW, handwasing is USELESS against the flu - flu is transmitted through the air.  No other mechanism can possibly account for the kinetics of the spread of flu in a population.

Comment #36: Ms Kate  on  03/10  at  03:33 PM

“I was pretty annoyed that this knowledge wasn’t applied to the H1N1 outbreak - they should have gotten the kids first, damnit!”

Isn’t that more or less precisely what they did?  The first batches were all reserved for the under-25s.

Comment #37: preying mantis  on  03/10  at  03:36 PM

I think you can definitely question the study validity.  The people in the study ate in communal dining halls and all have similar ancestors, and probably had little natural immunity due to their isolated nature; this seems like a perfect place for diseases to spread, and also a perfect place if you wanted to exagerate a treatment effect.

I question why they even bothered studying such a unique population unless they had an idea what they wanted to find and were having problems finding in more representative samples.

Comment #38: John Rove  on  03/10  at  03:36 PM

If you lick Jake’s sucker, you probably WON’T get Jake’s cold.  You will get his stomach virus, however.  Colds are spread via respiratory exposure - like, through the air.  The idea that you get a cold from a dirty doorknob is an old’ doctor’s tale perpetuated by Chlorox - it has no basis in scientific fact, and has never been demonstrated in a controlled setting.

Comment #39: Ms Kate  on  03/10  at  03:40 PM

John Rove, as someone who works for an organization that funds and publishes scientific public health studies, it is my professional epidemiologic opinion that you are completely unable to understand any of those fancy words you are spewing.

Comment #40: Ms Kate  on  03/10  at  03:41 PM

As parent of five-year-old, I can say confidently that children are cute little disease vectors.  It’s not their fault.  They just don’t have the situational awareness that adults do.  They also touch each other a lot more.  Adults have radius of personal space that kids just don’t have.  Especially younger kids.

Comment #41: phantom power  on  03/10  at  03:42 PM

No, mantis.  Pregnant women first, then very young children (6mos to 4 years) then people with underlying conditions, then kids.

Comment #42: Ms Kate  on  03/10  at  03:42 PM

Ms Kate:
Do you really think that the study can be generalized to any other population?

Comment #43: John Rove  on  03/10  at  03:46 PM

Well, until we find out what killed Corey Haim, none of this is important.

Comment #44: Mighty Ponygirl  on  03/10  at  03:48 PM

John, I’m not just looking at THIS study, but a bevy of additional ones conducted over the last 20 years as observational studies and the last 5 or so as interventional studies.  There are large studies underway for several years in CA that are finding similar results - and these are rural communities that are not religiously isolated and don’t eat in longhouses.

Comment #45: Ms Kate  on  03/10  at  03:49 PM

Ms Kate:

The post is talking about one specific study, and I am assuming from your response you get that this specific study doesn’t add much to anyones knowledge, and that is my point; just because someone questions the findings in one study they are not anti-science.  Bad science is still bad science even if you happen to agree with the conclusion.

Comment #46: John Rove  on  03/10  at  04:05 PM

In fact, it’s becoming increasingly obvious in our culture that individualistic thinking is correlated with a high degree of conformity, and if you don’t think that’s true, go to a teabagger rally and check out the clones. And on the flip side, check out cities that manage to have both diversity and a sense of the common good.

God dammit, this. A thousand times this. Spend 1 day in America’s Heartland(tm), where everyone whines endlessly about how liberals want to make everything think the same. They dress identically, they act the same and there are severe social consequences for anyone who dares not step in line.

Comment #47: Ross Lincoln  on  03/10  at  04:05 PM

In fact, it’s becoming increasingly obvious in our culture that individualistic thinking is correlated with a high degree of conformity, and if you don’t think that’s true, go to a teabagger rally and check out the clones. And on the flip side, check out cities that manage to have both diversity and a sense of the common good.

“I want to be different, like everyone else I want to be like [...]  Whatever happened to revolution for the hell of it? Whatever happened to protesting nothing in particular, just protesting, cuz it’s Saturday, and there’s nothing better to do?”—King Missile

Comment #48: Mighty Ponygirl  on  03/10  at  04:12 PM

Let’s do a quick look at the differences between this population and others, and how they might affect the wider validity of the study.

1) genetic homogeneity of the population. If all or most have an allele that bears directly on flu susceptibility or effectiveness of the vaccine, sure. Otherwise, not really. And if they did, they’d be pretty widely known for it already. Nuh-uh.

2) Communal living/dining. If the adults’ daily contact list is bigger than your average person’s as a result, they will have more opportunity to be infected. If smaller, less. But when you’re seeing a herd-immunity number like 60% it’s clear there’s a good mix of infected and uninfected people. So maybe on the precise size of the effect, but not on the direction.

3) Isolation. Same as the communal living issue: not a lot of infected people coming in randomly from the outside, but more contact opportunities with infected people inside the community. And anyone who catches the disease from another infected person will be counted, which is not the case if you had a study population living among a non-study population. So once again, nuh-uh.

Comment #49: paul  on  03/10  at  04:13 PM

Sometimes these things have to be left up to the individual, as little as some people might like it. Bodily autonomy, (except when you don’t like it), can be applied (as a philosophy) to both abortion AND vaccination. It has to be bodily autonomy PERIOD. People must have the right to bodily autonomy! Jesus Amanda, you are a Feminist!

Even if that means that some among us will choose not to vaccinate, or not to vaccinate for everything. (I am not taking a personal stand here; I don’t have children, and never will, and if I did, I would vaccinate them. My dogs certainly are up to date on their vaccinations! But as much as you might want to take bodily autonomy away from the folks who you think are doing it wrong, you still shouldn’t be ABLE to.)

Also, we have every right to be leery of Big Pharma in this country. In FACT, it is a REALLY BIG ISSUE right NOW that our health care system in America is a CRIMINAL JOKE. Lots and lots of people have compelling reasons to NOT TRUST what doctors tell them, because that trust has been violated hugely and publicly. It is bad and sad that good scientists and good doctors can’t get people to believe them, but it isn’t happening in a vacuum. It is happening because the Medical profession has, for at least the last fifty years, but PERSONAL FINANCIAL GAIN far far ahead of PUBLIC HEALTH, and still continues to do so.

People aren’t just DUMB, as you seem to be implying. Yes, there is the Polio Vaccine, but there was also Thalidomide and DES and Vioxx and millions of unnecessary Hysterectomies in the early 70’s and doctors prescribing expensive, new drugs when older, generically available drugs are more effective, and a very troubling over-prescribing of Ritalin and antidepressants, and a thousand other abuses. As one commenter said above, Americans WITH “Good” insurance and access are sometimes over-tested and over=prescribed for, while the bottom third lacks access to even the most basic care and are pretty much told to go die (You are form Texas, so you know that that is true here! That is if you know any older, working class Texans with a cancer or other serious, expensive disease diagnoses, or even musicians or artists with somewhat NORMAL health problems, or kids with problems)

To blindly accept that the medical community has Our Best Interests at Heart is too much to ask of people who have been screwed over repeatedly.

Comment #50: KMTBERRY  on  03/10  at  04:14 PM

I think it may be wrong to call this individualistic thinking. It seems like anti-community groupthink just for the sake of itself. An individualist, after all, would be thrilled to see other people getting vaccinated because then they could freeload. It’s more of a denial of any of the ties that bind us together in communities or cause people to behave altruistically.

Which in turn explains the crazy-desperate regimentation and the belief that there must be a big nasty abusive father to inculcate morals. Because if there weren’t maybe these Real Americans really would just run amuck every day.

Comment #51: paul  on  03/10  at  04:19 PM

Comment #30: paul on 03/10 at 12:47 PM

(The studies suggesting that kids who grow up in relatively sterile environments tend toward excess allergy etc are by no means bulletproof, but certainly make sense from an evolutionary standpoint.)

Either that statement is completely wrong, or I completely fail to understand what you’re saying.  Why would evolution add or subtract plausibility from studies that claim an environmental cause for excess allergies?

Comment #52: sacundim  on  03/10  at  04:19 PM

You are far more likely to pick up one of these diseases from someone you pass on the street than someone in an isolated farming community was to pick it up from one of their neighbors.

When the North and South started massing men together in order to enlarge their fighting forces for the American Civil War, epidemics were common because you brought together a group of men who had been born and raised in the most part in rural environments where they had a low population density and were unlikely to encounter any transmissable disease until they were brought together in the training camps.

Comment #53: Dark Avenger Guardian Chow Mein  on  03/10  at  04:20 PM

I think that ms kate’s point is that this makes for a useful study, when looked at in conjunction with other epidemiological studies, precisely because of those isolation factors, not in spite of them.  It allows one to factor out other variables like population migration and interaction, and look solely at the difference between vaccination rates.  It becomes useful on a larger scale when you compare these results to results from larger, more diverse populations.  Of course this study is not the be-all, end-all of epidemiology; that’s not how the field works.

Comment #54: jamie d  on  03/10  at  04:25 PM

sacundim:

Our immune systems, especially the juvenile versions, have been honed over millions of years of living in squalor. (Yeah, and dying at pretty high rates as a result, but let’s ignore that for a moment.) So—at least the argument goes—you put a bunch of cells whose entire reason for being is “Hey, what foreign antigens can I recognize and clobber today” into a situation where there just aren’t many foreign antigens, and things get a bit hinky with the few that do crop up.

It’s like the evolutionary arguments for why some populations are prone to diabetes in the face of a modern diet, or to high blood pressure and kidney failure in the face of abundant salt, and so forth.

Comment #55: paul  on  03/10  at  04:37 PM

KMT, I don’t recall where my feminist self said to force.

I was talking about getting people to stop being wrong and stupid-headed about this.  The best ways to get past irrational fears of vaccines, including the strange idea that Big Pharma is always evil while corporations like Whole Foods are some panacea.

Comment #56: Amanda Marcotte  on  03/10  at  04:41 PM

Chet:

The problem with taking a study like this, where they found a very unique community that probably had more risk factors for diseaese than almost anyother place they could have gone, and trying to generalize those findings to the rest of the population is that they probably exagerate the danger of the disease they are studying.

This exageration starts to seem like some of the anti-drug commercials where even one hit of marijuana will lead to a life of drug use.  they are trying to say that millions of people will die if YOU don’t get a flu shot.  People start to figure out that isn’t the case and credibility suffers. 

As for the definition of science, the whole point is to disprove hypothesis or as I like to say “question stuff”

Comment #57: John Rove  on  03/10  at  04:41 PM

(The studies suggesting that kids who grow up in relatively sterile environments tend toward excess allergy etc are by no means bulletproof, but certainly make sense from an evolutionary standpoint.)

Actually the “clean houses are dangerous houses” study stated that the problem isn’t that the environments are “sterile,” it’s that they have allergic reactions to the cleaning compounds, not the fact that they’re not getting enough germs.

Comment #58: Mighty Ponygirl  on  03/10  at  04:45 PM

Sacundim @52: From what I understand, the role of evolution in this idea would be due to the evolution of the immune system in general more than our evolution to our particular environment at the moment*. At least one idea that I’ve heard (not sure how current it is) is that one side of your immune system has 2 branches, which focus on responding to parasites or allergens respectively. If one branch doesn’t have much to do (no parasites in most North American children, I believe) the other branch may compensate by becoming overactive and flipping out over a peanut or something. If you will pardon really egregious personification, your immune system has evolved to be ready for action but will get bored in a super sterile environment, resulting in it going looking for trouble.

*there’s no way we’ve evolved in response to Chlorox or car exhaust yet, obvs. :p

Comment #59: Bagelsan  on  03/10  at  04:45 PM

Ponygirl: Oh, I was thinking more along the lines of the study(ies?) that tried ameliorating allergic reactions by “distracting” the immune system with parasite antigens, like ground up worms or something.

Comment #60: Bagelsan  on  03/10  at  04:48 PM

The question when will we adopt a real vaccination strategy?

Comment #61: Mike the Mad Biologist  on  03/10  at  04:56 PM

John, your criticisms are not science. You have a predetermined conclusion, and you’re trying to backend some science-y sounding shit. They genetic stuff was controlled for (read the link—-some kids got hep vaccines, some flu, and the variation was 60% between identical communities), so unless you’re suggesting they don’t have human DNA, your critique is nonsense and the opposite of the scientific method, which requires asking good questions, not just throwing random shit out you don’t understand.

Comment #62: Amanda Marcotte  on  03/10  at  05:00 PM

The problem with taking a study like this, where they found a very unique community that probably had more risk factors for diseaese than almost anyother place they could have gone, and trying to generalize those findings to the rest of the population is that they probably exagerate the danger of the disease they are studying.

I think that you’re misinterpreting both the motives and the results of this study.  Yes, they are unique.  Yes, they live in close quarters.  But that they are, by and large, isolated from the rest of society as a whole makes for a unique opportunity to study the effects of known, limited-scope disease vectors within a group and ways in which vaccination affects those vectors.  That they share meals in a confined space and live in close quarters with few outside points of contact only means that the researchers can be more certain of the nature of those vectors, not that they are necessarily more exposed to illness than any other population sample. 

Can you honestly say with such certainty that living in close quarters in a remote farming community is by definition a higher risk factor for disease than living in close quarters in a major metropolitan city?  Is sharing a communal dining hall that different from eating in a cafeteria or riding in a subway, bus, or elevator?

What I got from that article was that this was an extremely rigorous double-blind study which achieved consistent results across its sample.  How is that bad science, again?

Comment #63: jamie d  on  03/10  at  05:03 PM

For all those people who are so distrustful of pharma….did you know that most vaccines are actually money losers for the companies? That’s why so few vaccines have been developed in recent decades: expensive to develop, expensive to figure out safe distribution, most new vaccines would be most used in people who can’t pay much, and they only pay once, or maybe twice a lifetime.  Also, I’m guessing at least some of these vaccines are old enough that they aren’t under patent anymore.

So I say stick it to the pharmas by getting the vaccine and then not getting flu, or mumps,  rubella, or any of the other illnesses that will require much more expensive treatment. Getting deathly ill with measles or pertussis also lines the pockets of big pharma, because when you’re dog sick you’ll need a bunch of the treatments that they developed.

Comment #64: t-ster  on  03/10  at  05:06 PM

I think he was trying to suggest they’re more likely to pass flu because they’re all cousins.  But genetically, we’re all basically as close as an inbred group is, especially to a flu virus. 

John isn’t doing “science”.  John isn’t asking, “How is vaccinating this one group of people affecting overall rates of the flu?” and creating a controlled experiment to gather evidence. 

John is saying, “How can I dismiss evidence that a vaccine that I don’t want to take actually works?  Here, this sounds like science.”

Comment #65: Amanda Marcotte  on  03/10  at  05:09 PM

Chet, as someone not in a vulnerable or high contact group, I get the flu shot anyway.  Because so few people get it, you can’t rely on herd immunity.  And if I don’t get the flu shot, I tend to get the flu.  Why, I don’t know.  Maybe I see more children than I think.

Comment #66: Amanda Marcotte  on  03/10  at  05:11 PM

Sometimes these things have to be left up to the individual, as little as some people might like it. Bodily autonomy, (except when you don’t like it), can be applied (as a philosophy) to both abortion AND vaccination. It has to be bodily autonomy PERIOD. People must have the right to bodily autonomy! Jesus Amanda, you are a Feminist!

So, just to be consistent, you think that all public smoking laws should be repealed and people should be allowed to smoke wherever they want, correct?  Because your argument is that your bodily autonomy should be paramount over everything, including the health of other people who would be affected by your decision to smoke in their office or restaurant.

And if you don’t get the point of comparison between second-hand smoke and airborne diseases then I just can’t help you.

Comment #67: Mnemosyne  on  03/10  at  05:22 PM

There isn’t any consistent evidence that people who are in a low-risk group should get the flu shot to reduce risks to the population as whole.  It lowers individual risk of contracting the strains that are in the flu shot, but it’s unlikely to have an effect on the population as a whole.  The most cost-effective thing to do would be to target all the grubby little munchkins and the health-care providers that spread the disease most frequently.

Comment #68: t-ster  on  03/10  at  05:23 PM

What I got from that article was that this was an extremely rigorous double-blind study which achieved consistent results across its sample.  How is that bad science, again?

It’s bad science because it doesn’t conform to John’s preconceived notion of how it should work even though the actual scientific investigation proved that it doesn’t work the way he thinks it ought to.  Therefore, bad science, QED.

Comment #69: Mnemosyne  on  03/10  at  05:24 PM

I worked at a day care in high school. They were the 3 sickest months of my life. Vaccinate the brats.

Comment #70: kiki  on  03/10  at  05:30 PM

Science is about questioning stuff and I think it is wrong to dismiss everyone who questions vaccines and their benefits as flat earthers, you can question “scientific findings” without being anti-science.

Straw man alert!  Level 10!  Where the fuck did I ever suggest that we should dismiss everyone who questions vaccines?  Take your persecution complex and go somewhere else.

Comment #71: bananacat  on  03/10  at  05:52 PM

Bodily autonomy, (except when you don’t like it), can be applied (as a philosophy) to both abortion AND vaccination. It has to be bodily autonomy PERIOD. People must have the right to bodily autonomy! Jesus Amanda, you are a Feminist!

Please, I beg you, show me where Amanda suggested that we should take the right to bodily autonomy away from people.  Please show me where she suggesting forcing vaccines onto unwilling people.

Comment #72: bananacat  on  03/10  at  05:54 PM

I just don’t see abortion and anti-vaccination sentiment as comparable.  Allowing that some people should have their crazed reasons to opt out fixes any autonomy issues, full stop. 

But here’s the thing: There are good reasons to have an abortion.  Very, very good reasons.  I’d say anyone who wants an abortion knows what’s best in terms of her having a kid and what a bad idea that would be.  Women aren’t choosing abortion because they believe lies.  They aren’t choosing abortion because they have scientific misinformation.  But most people (barring immunity compromised ones, and if you have to ask, you’re not) who are rejecting vaccines are doing so for bad reasons.

Educating people about the truth may feel coercive to someone who prefers to believe a lie. There’s no doubt that cognitive dissonance is painful.  But causing someone to have to jump through hoops to rationalize their own bullshit, or gasp! accept they were wrong is not the same as forcing childbirth on someone.

Comment #73: Amanda Marcotte  on  03/10  at  05:59 PM

Comment #56: paul on 03/10 at 02:37 PM

Our immune systems, especially the juvenile versions, have been honed over millions of years of living in squalor. (Yeah, and dying at pretty high rates as a result, but let’s ignore that for a moment.) So—at least the argument goes—you put a bunch of cells whose entire reason for being is “Hey, what foreign antigens can I recognize and clobber today” into a situation where there just aren’t many foreign antigens, and things get a bit hinky with the few that do crop up.

It’s like the evolutionary arguments for why some populations are prone to diabetes in the face of a modern diet, or to high blood pressure and kidney failure in the face of abundant salt, and so forth.

Ah, so we’re talking about ancient selection events against alleles that may no longer exist.  That’s what was tripping me up (as Bagelsan @60 pointed out)—I was trying to think of it in terms of present-day genetic variation.

Still, if I read you right, you’re taking a hypothesis that says that an ancient natural selection event removed from the gene pool some hypothetical alleles for an immune system different than ours, and suggesting that this hypothesis about a one-off unobserved (and perhaps unobservable) event lends credence to contemporary observational studies about the effect of clean environments on incidence of allergies.  Whereas, put the way I just did, I just don’t see why it should make us any more confident about the cleanliness/allergies theory.

But of course, and tying in with our newly reignited monthly Pandagonian “what the hell is science” argument, this is normal science in action: scientists accept some paradigm more or less unquestioningly, use it to generate hypotheses that make for challenging puzzles, and then set out to prove that the answer they expect is indeed the answer.  So yeah, biologists really do think in the strange way that I outlined above, where the paradigm is more believable than the observations…

Comment #74: sacundim  on  03/10  at  06:01 PM

It was bad science because they chose a sample which did not represent the population and attempted to generalize the results on to the population anyway.  It would be like taking a presidential poll in Alabama and trying to say that the rest of the U.S would vote the same way.

I am pretty sure the idea that samples should be representative of the population, is not a new or contraversial idea.

Comment #75: John Rove  on  03/10  at  06:46 PM

As for the abortion-vaccination comparison, I think it’s more apt than KMT intended. I think more women would get abortions if fewer lies were spread and believed about them. If we were able to counter or prevent the most insidious lies that forced-birthers spread about abortion, more women would choose abortions because fewer women would be guilted or frightened into continuing a pregnancy they really don’t want.

Similarly, if there were fewer lies being told and believed about vaccinations more people would get vaccinated. I delayed vaccinating my kids because I believed a lot of lies about their safety, how they work (and, supposedly, don’t or can’t work) and their side effects. I believed those lies because the facts weren’t accessible to me at the time—but the lies were, and they felt like something I could understand. I think more effective countering of anti-vaccine lies (rather than a choice between “so complicated you can’t understand it” and “talking to you like you’re a baby who should just leave all the decisions to Big Pharma”) is really valuable in the campaign to combat the anti-vaxers.

Both abortion and vaccination are medical procedures with a legitimate application that ought to be available to everyone. And if you reduce or effectively counter the lies about either one, more people will take advantage of the availability.

Comment #76: kristin  on  03/10  at  06:55 PM

“I am pretty sure the idea that samples should be representative of the population, is not a new or contraversial idea.”

Mass experimentation on humans?  I’m sure that’s not a controversial idea in any way…

(...quietly steps away from the keyboard before bringing up Dr. Mengele and his fascist friends, both German and Japanese, and their attitudes towards human “test” subjects…)

Comment #77: MikeEss  on  03/10  at  07:05 PM

John @77, it’s impossible to get a sample that exactly represents the entire population, that’s not the point. The point is to make sure that variables are accounted for. Paul @49 showed some examples of why the variables in this study have little to no bearing on the accuracy of the results.

Look, I know very little about what goes into building an accurate, solid study, but even I know that the flailing you’re doing is pathetic and you have no idea what you’re talking about. OK? Maybe it’s time for you to be quiet and read for a while so you can learn something.

Comment #78: kristin  on  03/10  at  07:10 PM

John Rove: Well, to start with we don’t know how the researchers dealt with the problem of generalization because we are looking at a general interest article about the study in the New York Times. It’s almost always the case that the MSM is really sloppy when reporting on conclusions and caviats made by published research.

But yes, generalization is often a concern when dealing with dealing with a convenience sample. And convenience sample are often unavoidable in field trials such as this. That doesn’t mean that the study is automatically bullshit, and the fairly large effect size between sample and control reported would tend to argue against the premise that the beneficial effects of the vaccine are entirely due to the nature of the sample.

Comment #79: CBrachyrhynchos  on  03/10  at  07:15 PM

With apologies to Ms. Kate and other scientists - here’s the lay version of the allergy/hygiene study.  NO, MPG it isn’t an allergy to the cleaning products - unless you have an update that adds to/corrects these studies. 
http://www.livescience.com/health/070914_too_clean.html

Comment #80: phylosopher  on  03/10  at  07:19 PM

@77- I just don’t see it as overgeneralizing.  From what I saw, anyway, they were looking at very specific data about the difference in rates of disease transmission within relatively controlled conditions, isolating the variables as much as possible, and identifying the causes of those differences with relation to controlled experimental processes.

Furthermore, I just don’t see how the sample is so far removed from the general population.  As several pointed out upthread, this group is neither so genetically nor so culturally isolated as to make a significant difference with regard to inherent flu immunities.  They are not living on the moon; they are just a fairly insular set of rural communities with predictable, easily observed behavior patterns.  Their relative isolation makes them easier to study, but it doesn’t make them magically vulnerable to every disease that meanders into their little hamlet.

Comment #81: jamie d  on  03/10  at  07:23 PM

And in regards to vaccinating children vs. high-risk groups, and personal choices to vaccinate. I usually pass up the influenza vaccine because I don’t have professional contact with lots of people, and reports of shortages usually scare me off.  With recent mumps outbreaks, I am considering getting another MMR booster though.

Comment #82: CBrachyrhynchos  on  03/10  at  07:23 PM

That’s not the “lay version” of a study, that’s an article about the study. I didn’t even see a link to the original study so people could check whether the article was accurately reporting the results.

Comment #83: kristin  on  03/10  at  07:26 PM

It was bad science because they chose a sample which did not represent the population and attempted to generalize the results on to the population anyway.  It would be like taking a presidential poll in Alabama and trying to say that the rest of the U.S would vote the same way.

This is just getting sad now.

Comment #84: Mnemosyne  on  03/10  at  08:08 PM

It was bad science because they chose a sample which did not represent the population and attempted to generalize the results on to the population anyway.

Says you.  Of course, the scientific community strongly disagrees, since they understand things about controlled experiments that you don’t.  But keep repeating it!  It confirms your prejudices.

Comment #85: Amanda Marcotte  on  03/10  at  08:08 PM

That NY times article makes an interesting comparison with the “Does the Vaccine Matter” Atlantic Monthly article. The NY Times article measures flu cases while the other article uses mortality.

“Jackson and her colleagues combed through eight years of medical data on more than 72,000 people 65 and older. They looked at who got flu shots and who didn’t. Then they examined which group’s members were more likely to die of any cause when it was not flu season.

Jackson’s findings showed that outside of flu season, the baseline risk of death among people who did not get vaccinated was approximately 60 percent higher than among those who did, lending support to the hypothesis that on average, healthy people chose to get the vaccine, while the “frail elderly” didn’t or couldn’t. In fact, the healthy-user effect explained the entire benefit that other researchers were attributing to flu vaccine, suggesting that the vaccine itself might not reduce mortality at all.”

Comment #86: fubarator  on  03/10  at  08:54 PM

I think this is a ‘duh’ moment for anyone who works with kids, or even just anywhere near them.  We can trace half of our flus (and all the bad ones) in the last five years to exposure to kids.

Went to the petting Zoo?  Caught Norovirus.  Helped the kids in our apartment complex?  Caught H1N1.  Played frisbee with the little ones in the park?  Caught H1N1-2.  And we don’t have kids.

Ugh.  And it’s not the kids’ faults, but they’re just emitters of the dang viruses once they catch them, and since we’re in a global world, we need to insulate them first so they don’t spread it to everyone else.

Besides:  Kids can’t say no.  We should ban un-vaccinated kids from many public places, just as schools do now, because they’re our weak points.

Comment #87: Crissa  on  03/10  at  08:58 PM

In fact, the healthy-user effect explained the entire benefit that other researchers were attributing to flu vaccine, suggesting that the vaccine itself might not reduce mortality at all.

Actually, though, that seems to support what this study is saying:  the herd immunity that you get from having all of the children vaccinated provides more protection from the flu than having the high-risk people get vaccinated.  In this study, it sounds like the high-risk people weren’t getting the flu even though they weren’t vaccinated.

Comment #88: Mnemosyne  on  03/10  at  09:18 PM

but, but, but, Big Pharma!, Oprah! Autism! Shots bad, science bad, Big Pharma!!! BLUEEEE MEEAANIES!

Comment #89: Woodrowfan  on  03/10  at  10:04 PM

You do a controlled experiment to investigate the edges of what you already know.  The point isn’t to generalize.  The point is to control as much as possible.

This study wasn’t intended to be generalized - it was intended to demonstrate that what we have learned from more general studies still holds when as many factors as possible - possibly competing factors - are carefully controlled.  It is total bullshit to say “but we are talking about THIS study” because THIS study wouldn’t exist if the brits hadn’t noticed the role of schools in epidemics 40 years ago and researchers (my self included) hadn’t been looking at school absence rates and community epidemics for decades. 

These are the intervention studies that validate and test the results from the epidemiological studies.  They tell us that, yes, vaccination of school kids works even when competing factors are filtered out!

Comment #90: Ms Kate  on  03/10  at  10:37 PM

I’m not even going to bother with furburator’s naive and ignorant comments.

Comment #91: Ms Kate  on  03/10  at  10:51 PM

Where I work (attached to a hospital) the health services people are trying to switch from an opt-in vaccination schedule to an opt-out one; if you choose not to get the seasonal flu vaccine (or, this year, the H1N1 vaccine once it became available) you have to fill out a form to get out of being vaccinated. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem like it’s being enforced at all, yet, but I think it’s a step in the right direction. (Especially nice is that the vaccines are free through health services—they really, really don’t want infectious-but-lazy people wandering around and killing hospitalized people with their flus. They want a good herd immunity and that means they have to make getting your shots as easy as tripping and falling on the needle on your way to get coffee. :p)

Comment #92: Bagelsan  on  03/10  at  11:39 PM

I, of course, have started getting shots since I’ve been here, despite being a young and healthy person; I literally commute past elderly veterans in wheelchairs, and I’m pretty sure giving one of them your flu is a no-questions-asked ticket straight to Hell. ^^

Comment #93: Bagelsan  on  03/10  at  11:42 PM

I have four kids in three different schools. My husband teaches at a fourth school. Me? I drive a truck and interact with 4-5 people daily. My five plague-rats are immunized for the flu. I am not.

I know exactly how much stuff the kids drag home virus-wise. Because we pass it all through the family. Cute little disease vectors indeed.

Comment #94: Angelia Sparrow  on  03/11  at  12:21 AM

Hell, I work in a small office far, far away from children, and that they’re disease vectors is no surprise.  The usual disease route in the office is this:  Child of coworker picks up flu in daycare.  Coworker gets flu and still comes to work because of paucity of PTO.  Others get the flu.  I don’t tend to get sick myself, but I do transfer it to my partner.  Then, the other workers tend to pass it on to their family members, etc.  And the office cycle almost always starts with that phone call saying, “I won’t be in today; my kid is sick.”

@John:  My last science class was over five years ago, and even I know that you’re not making any sense.  Please stop—it’s embarrassing to watch.

Comment #95: Karinna A.  on  03/11  at  01:17 AM

Kristin,

It mentions the 2002 JAMA study.  I believe JAMA access requires a subscription, so they can’t link to it.  If you click the blue links in the article, it sends you to other “LiveScience” articles which cite other studies from medical journals including in “Chest” and the “American Journal of Infection Control” on related studies.

Sorry, lay version may have been too general a term.

Comment #96: phylosopher  on  03/11  at  04:37 AM

Besides:  Kids can’t say no.  We should ban un-vaccinated kids from many public places, just as schools do now, because they’re our weak points.
Comment #89: Crissa on 03/10 at 06:58 PM

Schools do not ban unvacced kids from school.  They allow “religious” exceptions. 

http://www.vaclib.org/exemption.htm
http://www.vaclib.org/exemption.htm

Know thy enemy.

Comment #97: phylosopher  on  03/11  at  04:43 AM

Mnemosyne- yes.
MsKate- just pointing to an article out there that finds a few flaws with how we currently measure effectiveness. Geesh. If there are flaws we should fix them.
I get the flu shot each year. If it works, great. If it doesn’t do much, oh well.

Comment #98: fubarator  on  03/11  at  10:03 AM

Furburator, i do this for a living.  Switching the basis from “illness” to “mortality” is not “fixing a flaw”.  It is moving the goalposts to avoid reality, much the way some crank wants to go on and on about “overall mortality” and pollution in California rather than deal with the extreme signal found for ischemic heart disease mortality and pollution.

That fixes nothing - it just redefines the problem such that there is so much noise that no possible finding can be found.  It is how you lie with science.

Comment #99: Ms Kate  on  03/11  at  10:18 AM

I would say this is more changing the field than moving the goal posts.  Looking at infection rates for a particular item and looking at mortality overall are two entirely different games.

Comment #100: helen w. h.  on  03/11  at  11:35 AM

Helen, what I was talking about was furburator thinks that looking only at mortality is “fixing a flaw” when it is really just reclassifying things to add uncertainty such that a desired result either goes away or appears.  That isn’t scientific unless there is scientific justification for doing so.

In air pollution, there is an analagous situation where some crank has decided that people in California are immune to air pollution because the associations between all-cause mortality and air pollution are weak and nearly insignificant or insignificant, depending on which statistic you cherry pick.  Problem is, ischemic heart disease deaths jump substantially with increasing air pollution - adding in deaths from things not associated with air pollution, such as liver failure, just creates statistical noise and doesn’t change the fact that air pollution kills.

Comment #101: Ms Kate  on  03/11  at  12:37 PM

Schools do not ban unvacced kids from school.  They allow “religious” exceptions.

In California, all you need is a philosophical objection and, wonder of wonders, our infectious disease rate is rising with outbreaks of measles and mumps because affluent parents are more afraid of autism than infectious diseases.

So, no, the religious exemption in itself is not the root of the problem.  The people causing the problem here in California are not doing it for religious reasons, unless you think that Jenny McCarthy is selling a religion.  It’s having the exemption be too easy to get that’s the problem.

Comment #102: Mnemosyne  on  03/11  at  12:50 PM

Whoa, Ms Kate, that’s not what I think at all! The flaw discussed in “Does the Vaccine Matter” is that some previous studies don’t account for the fact that the group opting for the vaccine is healthier to start with. If not addressed, this factoid will only give vaccine opponents more ammo. Then I carefully pointed out that the NY Times and Atlantic Monthly articles discuss two different effects (flu cases, mortality) which is a major difference to be kept in mind if you actually read and compare both articles.
A pro-vaccine question that could emerge from the “Does the Vaccine Matter” article is, “Why are people who need the vaccine NOT getting it, and what can we do about this?”

Comment #103: fubarator  on  03/11  at  01:57 PM

Mnemosyne, the religious exemptions (and it can be stated as religious, philosophical, etc.)  since it need not be rationally explained, just claimed based on beliefs, bolsters the ignore the science facts in favor of woo - because any belief accepted without or defended in the face of evidence is woo.  It set s up the idea that science and woo share equal footing.  Imagine if a parent actually had to explain to an arbitrator, for example, why little junior shouldn’t be vaccinated.  Watch the rates climb.

Comment #104: phylosopher  on  03/12  at  05:00 AM
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