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Next entry: This Is The Election To End All Elections Until The Next Election (Liveblog!) Previous entry: Post-election fun and conferences

Liveblog Tonight

Elections

Starting at 6:30 - Amanda and I will be blogging our happy (or not-so-happy) asses off.

Let’s get ready to discuss the coming tidal wave that will likely envelop us in a slightly Republican House and a Democratic-held Senate, and therefore send a strong message that America is now to the right of Ronald Reagan.

Pinning to the top.

 

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Posted by Jesse Taylor on 04:20 PM • (6) Comments

I have a slight suspicion that Democratic turnout may be higher than anticipated. There was quite a line at 9:30 AM in my blue precinct, and I’ve received both door-to-door GOTV canvassing and GOTV phone calls from the Democratic Party.

We’ll see how it goes.

Comment #1: snowmentality  on  11/02  at  04:22 PM

LOL.  Great comment Jesse. 

It’s just like the world-ending blizzards we get here every year.  Run for your lives!  Well, if a girl can’t handle six inches, she isn’t made of much!

Comment #2: Lady Vader  on  11/02  at  04:46 PM

Snowmentality - I just read that Obama is on the phones all day to urban radio stations.  If urban America comes out…God bless them they often have to stand in line for hours to vote. 

Yeah, we’ll see.  I am braced for the worst.  The dems are going to hold the Senate today, it’s horseshit that they won’t.  But..I am hoping for a big enough majority that I don’t have to sweat the dung beetle himself, Joe Lieberman, pulling a smirking switch.  You know that motherfucker is salivating over the chance, and perhaps no one, save Mitch McConnell is praying for a Republican sweep more than old Joe.

Think if how many interviews he’ll get!

Comment #3: Lady Vader  on  11/02  at  04:49 PM

Let’s get ready to discuss the coming tidal wave that will likely envelop us in a slightly Republican House and a Democratic-held Senate, and therefore send a strong message that America is now to the right of Ronald Reagan.

Indeed.

The one thing that has pissed me off the most during this whole cycle is the promotion of the overly hyperbolic “Tidal Wave” meme. Historically speaking, the party out of the White House nearly always makes net gains during midterm elections. The fact that the GOP will almost certainly emerge with more seats heading into the 112th Congress than they had during the 111th Congress is not indicative of this being a “change” election. It’s actually just a continuation of the dominant electoral pattern of the past 100 years.

Perhaps the one positive thing about idiots like Dick Morris predicting a “Republican tsunami” will be seeing the GOP barely take control of the House and finish the night with only 47 U.S. Senate seats instead of the 51 they would need to claim a majority (50-50 keeps Democrats in majority by virtue of VP Biden as the tiebreaker). The way quite a few teabaggers are talking about this election, it’s possible that they wind up looking really stupid if the GOP falls way short of making the sort of gains that some of them seem to expect.

FWIW, my predictions…

HOUSE - 225 Republicans, 210 Democrats
SENATE - 53 Democrats (including Independents Sanders and Lieberman), 47 Republicans

The one GOP House seat that the Democrats are almost guaranteed to pick up is Louisiana-02, currently held by freshman Congressman Joseph Cao (R). The only reason Cao was able to win one of the most blue districts in the country 2 years ago is because the Democrats in New Orleans stupidly renominated William Jefferson, the guy the FBI caught with $90,000 hidden in his freezer. Following his defeat, “Dollar Bill” Jefferson went on to become a convicted felon now serving 13 years in federal prison on corruption charges.

Alaska and Kentucky are the only two current GOP Senate seats that the Democrats have any realistic shot at winning, but I still think they fall short in both cases. Best case scenario for Alaska is Murkowski winning instead of Miller. New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida will all be won by the Republican candidates, and Charlie Crist will not become a U.S. Senator.

Republican Senate pick-ups: Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. All other U.S. Senate seats will remain with the current incumbent parties; the Democrats won’t win any of the currently GOP-held U.S. Senate seats.

Chuck Schumer will beat out Dick Durbin to become the next U.S. Senate Majority Leader when the 112th Congress convenes in January.

Sadly, Tom Delay’s personal fluffer Roy Blunt will defeat Robin Carnahan to become my state’s next U.S. Senator, replacing the retiring Kit Bond.

Barf.

Comment #4: DTGslu2K  on  11/02  at  05:32 PM

I think what is going to be the most vomit-inducing tonight will be when the 218th House seat for the Republicans is called, and John Boehner becomes the presumed Speaker of the House to preside over the 112th Congress.

Watching the 2011 State of the Union Address with his repulsive smarmy orange visage behind President Obama in the background is gonna suck.

Comment #5: DTGslu2K  on  11/02  at  06:20 PM

Personhood amendment is dead! Yay! At least thats some good news!

Comment #6: Bean Slap  on  11/02  at  11:57 PM
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