I read such articles, and I hope they’re correct. I wonder how many people are writing articles, or reading them, about how McCain might just squeak through, because they’re afraid to let themselves hope.

I firmly believe the presidency was stolen in 2000 and again in 2004. I’m afraid to hope that it won’t be in 2008.

I’m pretty dismayed that it’s as close as it is.  That McCain is pulling more than 30% support is evidence I live in a country populated by idiots.

I wonder how much of this is sowing the seeds of doubt and illegitimacy in Obama’s campaign.  Any white candidate who had performed this strongly would not only be heavily favored to win the election, but be perceived to have a huge mandate coming into the presidency. 

But obviously we can’t have that in Obama’s case, because OMG no way can we admit that people are really excited about *a black person* being president, not to mention that ew, no way can we even pretend that wer’re going to actually let any of his policies materialize. 

On the other hand, if the media narrative is that Obama squeaked by (especially if the ACORN stuff doesn’t just vaporize into the ether), then we don’t have to take him seriously.  We can blame his victory on people voting for the novelty of having a historic “first”.  In fact, we can probably spin this as an “affirmative action” election.

To be fair, I can see why even an honest journalist would be afraid to risk their reputation on committing to a Democratic win.

Because you know that if the Republicans do succeed in overcoming Obama’s lead by election-rigging (we have to figure that Obama has to be ahead by at least 6% in order to scrape in, in any state in which electronic voting machines are in use) the media owners will not permit Wednesday’s story to be about the stolen election: the required narrative will be: how did the Republicans/McCain manage to win it?

I hope Obama does have a large enough lead to overcome the electoral rigging against him. But it will have to be a landslide victory in order for the next day’s vote to be reported as a narrow win.

And then there is such a short window of opportunity for Obama to announce he intends a thorough independent investigation and reform of the US electoral system - to ensure that never again will Democratic candidates have to win by a landslide in order to get past the Republican party. If Obama doesn’t do that, he may not win in 2012, and a Republican will certainly get in again in 2016.

As it’s become clear that the GOP establishment has decided to take a dive in this election, the MSM has been presented with an unusual “opportunity.’ On the one hand, they’ve been given free rein by the GOP to indulge their natural inclination to snipe against a politician (good ratings and circulation)—we see that in the sort of embarrassing stories and “errors” mentioned in Pam’s earlier post to a degree we haven’t seen in decades. On the other hand, good ratings and circulation and adherence to the bogus concet of “fair and balanced” dictate that they also have to pretend it’s still a close race with stories like the one in this post.

It’s not a conspiracy, of course—just the MSM reading signals from the GOP and responding in its usual lazy way. Of course, the joke will be on the MSM media after the election, when the GOP will claim that the “liberal media” undermined McCain.

That McCain is pulling more than 30% support is evidence I live in a country populated by idiots.

Yeah, but the fact that he can’t get to 50% is evidence that our country is at least a little smarter than it was four years ago. So there is that.

That McCain is pulling more than 30% support is evidence I live in a country populated by idiots.

The smartest internal policy a new Obama administration can put into place is this: ignore the demands of that 30%—as publically as possible. No comity, no unity, no respect for spiteful Know-Nothings who have never shown any sign of reciprocating. The message should be clear: idiots, ignoramuses and fantasists will not get a hearing from the Executive branch over the next 4 years.

On past performance, the pundit class should have been calling on McCain to concede for the past seven weeks or so.

and I’m just saying Obama ought to stay out of small planes for the next week or so

Honestly, I don’t even think that would be enough.  He’d be instantly deified/martyrized, and people would come out in droves to vote Dem.  Especially considering that it would suddenly be a white person heading the ticket, which would bring back anybody who usually votes Dem but won’t this year for reasons of racism. 

At this point I’m not sure that anything short of a full military coup could prevent a Democrat from taking office in January.  Especially because I just don’t think the Republicans have a tight enough race to steal, and if they try, it will be noticed and people will NOT stand for it.

Undecideds, almost always break 25% for one, 25% for the other, 50% don’t show up to vote.

This bullshit about undecideds breaking 75/25 for McCain is just that. You can’t do it, my friends.

Obama winning is enough for me to believe that this country is doing the right thing finally after the last eight years.

I still get nervous every time McCain promises a win, even though I know that’s what he has to do.

However, that said, they had a video on Olbermann last night of McCain making another one of those promises of a victory on Tuesday.  This time, though, it was clear by his facial expression and tone of voice that he didn’t really believe it.  There wasn’t any emotion behind it, it was just what he had to say to prevent the base from becoming disenchanted and simply not turning up at the polls.  I honestly think that the high ups in the campaign know he’s done for, but they need everyone to show up anyway or else they will lose more house and senate seats.  So McCain is going out there day after day, making me worry that he’s up to something evil and manipulative, when he knows full well that it’s a hollow promise.

At least I hope it is

Whereas I don’t find big logical flaws in Jesse’s post or in anybody else’s comments so far, I hope you’ll forgive me if I wait until November 5th to relax. I was living in DC in late 2004 & early 2005 and the post election to inauguration GOP celebrations were too painful after having had hope that Kerry might pull it off. This time around I’ll be cautiously optimistic until November 4th, and hopefully switch my mood to ecstatic on November 5th.

“They need the media to buy the meme that statistical fluctuations within the margin of error are actually meaningful so they (hope) that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

In MN in the 1998 governor’s race Jesse Ventura was more than 6 points behind in every poll to the leader Norm Coleman a week out.  No-one expected that Jesse had a chance, and then he won.  Clearly margins of error are real and polls can be meaningless on election day.  The electoral college arguement, however, is spot on.  Obama will run away with the states that matter.

I don’t trust any political poll that involves a former professional wrestler, except maybe one that had the Ultimate Warrior running for County Clerk

I actually don’t mind the media narrative that it’s a close race because I think it’s keeping our side motivated, and we already have the more motivated voters. 

This is not going to be a huge amount of comfort to the worriers, but remember that John Kerry was behind Bush through all of October.  It was only a few points—just enough to make us hopeful that he could close the deal after all—but he was behind, not in the lead.

As a Jew, I was terrified by a comment made by Sarah Palin at a rally in which “Joe the Plumber” was a featured guest.

“With his shaved head, jeans, and steel toed boots, he’s OUR kind of guy right?” said Palin to a resounding cheer from
the overwhelmingly WASP crowd. (At which point I cringed for her husband, Todd who is nothing like Joe the Plumber).

In what country are shaved heads, certain brands of jeans and especially steel toed boots not associated with radical
Neo-Nazi skinheads? And how do you suppose those Neo-Nazi skinheads feel about Jews, African-Americans, Catholics, and anyone else who does not fit the narrow description of a
“real” American according to the right wing conservatives?

Wake up Children of Israel!
McCain/Palin is a vote for those who despise us. Remember this: they protect Israel for Christianity, NOT Judaism.

It is all over but the shouting.  All of McCain’s work in PA has not worked, the shift to him is slight, maybe .5%.  If he doesn’t win PA he absolutely has to win VA AND CO.  That ain’t gonna happen.  I’m still hoping for OH, NC, FL, and IN but they ain’t absolutely necessary.  It does look like Liddy Dole is history (bwahahaha).

Howard Fineman wonders why this race is still so close, and why McCain hasn’t been “put away” yet

For fuck’s sake. If it ends 53-47, and the winning campaign gets the votes out when it matters, that probably gives Obama a 200 EV victory. As for the ‘not closed the deal’ bullshit: what do they expect? The black guy to be winning the way incumbents LBJ and Reagan won in ‘64 and ‘84? Daddy Bush got 53.4% of the pop. vote and took away 426 EVs.

As for the <s>morons</s> undecideds: 25/25/50 probably fits the bill, but you also have to factor in the number of <s>fucking idiots</s> genuine undecideds who want to back the winner. I’m with Magis: Kerry states + IA/NM/CO puts Obama over the top, and everything else is gravy.

What I hear is that, traditionally, Republicans do fantastic in early voting/absentee ballots, etc.  So if McCain is only winning that by 55-45% that’s still a victory for Obama.

Undecideds, almost always break 25% for one, 25% for the other, 50% don’t show up to vote.

That’s what I’ve been wondering—what proportion of the “undecideds” never will decide, and just stay home?  Seems like it might be a lot of them.

If undecideds were going to break for Obama, they would have

That reminds me of an economist joke. 

Regular person:  “Hey, there’s a $20 on the ground!”
Economist:  “Impossible.  If there had been a $20 on the ground, someone would have picked it up by now.”

CHILDREN OF ISRAEL, you know your countrymen are terrorists according to the far Left, right?  Amazing.

Dr T, you know that you’re a lying sack of shit, right?

CHILDREN OF ISRAEL, you know your countrymen are terrorists according to the far Left, right?  Amazing.

I would have thought that someone who murdered Israel’s Prime Minister would be classified as a terrorist, but since the assassin was himself Israeli I guess it was just a strong political disagreement within the country.

CHILDREN OF ISRAEL, you know your countrymen are terrorists according to the far Left, right?

And they’re also considered the world’s secret puppetmasters according to the far Right. I doubt either group of extremists will vote for Obama or (Palin’s skinhead dog whistle notwithstanding) McCain—especially since both candidates have expressed equally strong support for Israel. So I have to wonder, what’s your point?

My guess is that you’re a little worried that a majority of pro-Israel Jewish voters finally see the PNACers and the Xtian Zionists for what they are: a collection of fantasists and closet anti-Semites disguised as Republicans.

No narrative needed. The commercial media will always benefit from portraying any race as closer than it actually is, in either direction. They grab more eyes and sell more advertising that way.

“So I have to wonder, what’s your point?”

United States Evangelical Christians are the most pro-Israel group on the face of the earth.  An unlicensed plumber with a shaved head and an outfit from the LL Bean catalogue is no more a white supremicist than a Sikh wearing a turban on a plane is an Al Quaeda terrorist.  To say so is beyond idiotic.

United States Evangelical Christians are the most pro-Israel group on the face of the earth.

Really now. More than, I dunno…the ISRAELIS?

And if that’s true, that USECs are more pro-Israel than Israel, then doesn’t that rather lend support to the (admittedly a little unhinged) poster’s claim that Christians are in it for THEMSELVES, and not the Jewish people?

United States Evangelical Christians are the most pro-Israel group on the face of the earth.

Yes, because they have their own plans for the place which involve the wholesale slaughter of the Jews.

Nice try, though.

United States Evangelical Christians are the most pro-Israel group on the face of the earth. 

Pro-Israel, perhaps, but not always pro-Jew or even pro-Israeli.

T, you clearly don’t read enough parodies of far-left views. It’s that Israelis are oppressors, not that they’re terrorists. (And, for the record: I’m a Jew. I think that some of Israel’s policies are indeed discrimintory and oppressive.)

Not to mention that Joe the Plumber’s views don’t matter all that much. Sarah Palin’s, if she gets into the White House, do. And when she says “With his shaved head, jeans, and steel toed boots, he’s OUR kind of guy,” I hear, “With his shaved WHITE head, jeans ON A WHITE BODY, and steel toed boots ON WHITE FEET.”

United States Evangelical Christians are the most pro-Israel group on the face of the earth.

For reasons that are obvious to the rest of us, that statement is so idiotic that my saying it’s beside the point would be too kind.

An unlicensed plumber with a shaved head and an outfit from the LL Bean catalogue is no more a white supremicist than a Sikh wearing a turban on a plane is an Al Quaeda terrorist.  To say so is beyond idiotic.

Well, CHILDREN OF ISRAEL didn’t say that, and neither did I. I guess your usual non-existent straw man might have said something idiotic like that, but if that was your point it really leaves something to be desired.

Dr T, this is the second thread in as many days in which you’ve made a fool of yourself. Can’t wait to see what’s coming up on Friday.

Ok, speaking of Joe the Plumber, The Onion has once again proved itself so prescient that its owners must own a time machine.

There’s no other explanation for the 29 May, 1993 front page:

Uneducated Forklift Driver to Address Nation on Rush Limbaugh Radio Show

Nation Eagerly Awaits Ohion Man’s Profound Insight Into Current Events.

LIMA, OH—Roy Shybinski, an uneducated 33-year-old forklift operator from Lima, is making final preparations for his national radio address tomorrow on The Rush Limbaugh SHow/

Shybinski, who has been “waiting a long time to speak my mind about this draft-dodging, pot-smoking Clinton bozo: will speak to an expected audience of 32 million…

[...]

Political observers are eagerly anticipating the three-minute radio address.

“I am very much looking forward to hearing Mr. Shybinski’s sophisticated insights and trenchant social and political commentary,” Sam Donaldson of ABC News said. “This is a man who has much to contribute to our national dialogue. If ever there were a man who deserved a national forum in which to express his views, it is Roy Shybinski of Lima, Ohio.”

Mind boggle: one poll give McCain a four point lead in early voting; the other poll gives Obama a twenty-four point lead. And the newspaper leads with the 4 point lead poll and mentions the other as an afterthought?

If it’s because a 24 point lead is considered less likely,t hen they really ought to talk abut the differences in how the polls were handled. Because that just said that the statistcal pools on both were very small, meaning the margin of error could be wide.

Wider than 4 points, I’m sure—but wider than 24 fucking points?!