I still think the poit of media is “how many people read you” and “ are those readers people that matters”?

1. in term of media size, bloggers are puny.  It does however control the core of movement very well. It can deliver news analysis fast and right to people who are paying attention.  News and analysis that matters is on the blog. Bloggers are not afraid to say things that can’t be said in polite company. (eg.Bush corruption, torture, racket, etc)

2. Blogger don’t control delivery technology end to end yet. (eg. ISP can shut down blogger, NSA/FBI can shut down blogger, etc)

3. Blogger is still about 20-30 something, plus political junkies.  General public still watch TV and listen to radio.

4. money, money, money.... (without money, DC won’t notice. delivering vote is nice, swinging few issues are nice. but DC people only understand “MONEY”.  So, some blogger really need to get filthy rich, just because…

I don’t know, get together and do IPO for blog-smartphone delivery system or something.)

5. I for one think, as long as Limbough, O’reilly still command nation’s attention, the battle is not over.

Don’t forget the voting machines!  4 years ago the owner of Diebold went around saying he was a committed Republican and would do “whatever he could” to win then the election.  I doubt that has changed.

Committed, certifiable....tomato, tomahto....

Not only that, Amanda, but if Obama does win, there’s always the chance he’ll be as disappointing as Bill Clinton was.  Just once before I die, I’d like to see a Democratic president as far to the left as the last four Republican presidents have been to the right.

Racism could throw a wrench into the works, as could a new war.  Other than that, the fundamentals favor the Dems pretty much across the board:  hated GOP President, hated war, shitty economy, Dem nominee with tons of money and the biggest presidential campaign organization ever.  Even a McCain-loving press can’t make up for that kind of disadvantage.

So yeah, a new war could scramble things significantly, as could another big terrorist attack on the US.  Racism is always a factor, though hardly an “x-factor”—it’s kinda been the defining characteristic of American society for a few centuries.  This election will be unfathomably ugly, with an every-worsening explosion of American racism spewing all over all of us.  But that won’t be a shock, and it won’t be sudden.

I’m curious as well, Amanda, about the reaction to a President Obama among the blogosphere.  Victory will tend to weaken the Popular Front approach to Dem politics, I think, and there’ll be more internal dissent and lots of meta-arguing about whether a particular fight is the fight we should wage—FISA was a good foreshadowing of this.  In the end, the only way we’ll get radical change (which I think is necessary) will be to recognize that the Presidency, as an institution, is not on our side, and that to try to get it on our side will take an oppositional movement that threatens institutional power pretty much across the board.  That is to say, Obama will not really be our friend or ally—he’ll be managing the national security state and stabilizing American (corporate) hegemony around the world (since those are the main responsibilities of the Presidency), not looking out for our interests.  Not because he’s a bad guy, but because that’s the job he’s trying to get hired to do.

Amanda, i think you have good reason to be wary about the election.
a lot can happen in three and a half months. many bloggers are sniggering at McCain, but a lot of Joe Six Packs don’t. things look good right now for a real Democratic Party win, but, how things look now don’t mean jack come November.
i, for one, could do with a lot less cocky on our side. conventional wisdom aside, this race is not in the bag.