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Next entry: National Screw On Contraception Day Previous entry: The Internet Has Been Won

The Plural Of Anecdote Is Conservatism

Patterico’s Pontifications notices that unemployment rates for those ages 16-24 have risen much faster than those for other age groups, and that said rise probably has a lot to do with that age group entering the market for summer work.

For that bit of correctitude, the author gets a cookie.  It’s a nice cookie.

However, there’s a point to this observation - the reason that people in this age category can’t find employment as is easily is, you guessed it, the minimum wage:

Who does this age group represent?  How about high school and college students coming into the job market for the summer.

And what do many such job seekers get paid?  Minimum wage –which Congress increased last year from $5.15 to $5.85, and which will increase again next month to $6.55, and then again next year to $7.25.

Here’s a personal case study in how that works to squeeze workers out of the minimum wage job market:

It’s a story!  Stories always prove points!

My parents own an ice cream shop, and rely heavily in its operation on eight 16-20 year olds working part-time schedules of 16-24 hours a week, along with one full-time manager who is assisted by my parents in their free time.  Over the course of a 7 day work week, they typically employ the part-time workers for a total of about 340 hours a week.

Raising the minimum wage by .70 increased their straight wage expense by $240 a week, or about $1000 a month.  But it had collateral consequences as well, as their worker’s comp. and unemployment insurance costs rose in relation to their payroll, as did their payroll tax contributions.  The combination of wage increase and the various increases that spin off that wage increase was about $1500 a month.  This is against a total wage expense for the part-timers of about $8000 a month.

Now, the ice cream parlor business is somewhat inelastic from a price stand point — people won’t continue to pay higher and higher prices for an ice cream cone when the alternative is simply to do without.  So, that increase in operating expense could not, in total, be passed on to the customers.  Instead, my parents worked a few more hours themselves and trimmed back on the hours they had the part-timers working.  When one of the part-timers quit, they didn’t hire a replacement for her.

Now, the same thing is going to happen next month — another increase of .70 per hour, totaling about $1500 a month in additional operating expenses is going to kick in.  This will come on top of significant increases over the past year in product costs — multiply the increased cost of milk you are paying at the supermarket several times over and you get a feel for the increased cost of buying ice cream on a large scale for a business establishment.

Well, first thought: have you tried Dippin’ Dots?  They are the ice cream of the future, after all.

If you own an ice cream shop, there might be more pressing concerns to you than relatively small increases in salary.  The aforementioned rise in milk costs, the rise in sweetener costs and…what was the other thing?

Oh, yeah, the fucking recession we’re in.

Gas prices are up immensely.  Energy costs overall are up immensely.  Everything from the dairy and sugar above to corn-based products and wheat are all rising.  Virtually every sector of our economy that relies on the spending of disposable income is planning on tight times ahead because people have less disposable income to spend.  Now, bear with me, because I’m about to unleash some dirty hippie economics over here, and sometimes the transition from GDP to unicorn beams is confusing.  My thought: maybe the reason that employers are hiring fewer seasonal employees is because they expect to have a bad season, what with people not going out as much and having to sell their bodily fluids for fuel.  It’s hard to scream for ice cream when you’re borderline anemic, after all.

Oh, and the employment figures in the anecdote are entirely off, in case you were wondering how you can employ eight part-time teenagers at an average of 42.5 hours per week.


Image used via Creative Commons License from mutantlog.

 

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Posted by Jesse Taylor on 02:00 AM • (34) Comments

If your business relies on hiring casual work on the minimum wage, and is so lean that you can’t make ends meet just by keeping their wages matching inflation, then your business was never going to last anyway. And you definitely shouldn’t be influencing business or labour market policy, since your own business model is hardly a sterling example.

Comment #1: flashheart  on  06/07  at  05:31 AM

What flashheast said.My friend works as a barista,and he can’t afford to by a fu*#ing latte at the price his employer has set.He also insists that a minimum wage of 7.50 Euros as demanded by leftists in our fair country would very likely threaten him with unemployment.The chain for which he works,however,(no,not Starbucks) is making larger profits every year…

Comment #2: resident_alien  on  06/07  at  06:47 AM

“But it had collateral consequences as well, as their worker’s comp. and unemployment insurance costs rose in relation to their payroll, as did their payroll tax contributions.”

But here’s the best part.  Since the wage cap (which is rather low) of the unemployement tax did not change, that means that total unemployment costs did not change (although the timing of those costs would shift slightly seasonally.  And even in high-risk occupations (which I seriously doubt an ice-cream stand qualifies as), workers comp is about $0.05 per 1.00 paid.  Most non-construction/non manual labor jobs are under $0.01 per $1.00 paid.  It is indeed true that Medicate/FICA are an additional 7.65% of the wage base, but the most the payroll tax/workers comp burden could possible be is about 10%, not the 50% he claims in this math-addled article.

Comment #3: Malaclypse  on  06/07  at  08:08 AM

“My parents own an ice cream shop, and rely heavily in its operation on eight 16-20 year olds working part-time schedules of 16-24 hours a week, along with one full-time manager who is assisted by my parents in their free time.  Over the course of a 7 day work week, they typically employ the part-time workers for a total of about 340 hours a week.”

Oh, the sadness of industries that rely on teenaged sweatshop labor.  My heart always breaks for them!  I remember how awesome it was to be scheduled for as many 3.5 and 7.5 hour shifts as could fit into a week, because for shifts less than 8 hours long you only have to be given a 20 minute break instead of a 30 minute break and for shifts less than 4 hours long you don’t have to legally be given any kind of break at all! without putting me over the magic “40 hour” mark so I wouldn’t have to be paid overtime or be eligible for even the tiniest of benefits.

Comment #4: Lisa KS  on  06/07  at  08:32 AM

There always is the possibility that raising the minimum wage will put some bad business models out of business, that are only open because they can exploit cheap labor.

So be it. That’s how it’s supposed to work.

One of the common arguments given is that raising the minimum wage doesn’t say that they’ll go out of business, just that they’ll hire less. This is a bad argument. Why? To maximize their profits, pretty much every service industry outfit out there is already running on a skeleton crew. If they COULD cut any more they already WOULD have. In this case, you have the owner working himself. Which yes, eliminates A job. (Or two part-time). But that assumes that his labor isn’t more valuable or needed elsewhere, but ideally, the increased spending power given to much more people also increases the labor needed to serve those people. Now if in the end, economically it’s a plus or a minus amount is up in the air, as it’s far too complex to truly judge (but it looks like it’s a plus on the whole).

Comment #5: Karmakin  on  06/07  at  08:47 AM

BTW. Even if it was a minus I still support modest raises to the minimum wage, as working poverty IMO is a massive social ill.

Comment #6: Karmakin  on  06/07  at  08:49 AM

Please distinguish between small business (and by that I mean independents, not franchises) and large ones.  Large corporate entities are hostile to minimum wage increases but they are best able to absorb it.  Small businesses, though, may not be able to.  “[Y]our business was never going to last anyway ... you definitely shouldn’t be influencing business or labour market policy, since your own business model is hardly a sterling example” is a rather callous point of view to take.  It comes perilously close to the shrugs and “so?” of the corporate types when they gut another factory town in order to move the jobs to slave-level wages in the third world.  (FTR, I don’t think you meant it that way.  I do think that you didn’t pause to consider the brutal impact of the words and the casualness with which they were delivered.)

I have met quite a few small businessmen here in Canada* whose interests would be far better served by the principles behind NDP (social democratic) policies, but they’d never vote for them because NDPers are very prone to seeing all businesses as the same (or at least seeming to be), be they mom and pop operations or Wal-Mart.  There is a real fear amongst the small business class that a soc-dem government means a real disinterest in whether their life’s work goes down the tubes as long as some shiny new taxes and entitlement programs come along.  Whether people on the left really do give a shit about factory workers and the homelesss and don’t give a flying damn for shopkeepers I will leave for others to debate; I personally do not believe it to be so and I have been both a small businessman and a social services worker.  What I think is undeniable, though, is that we often seem to care more about social programs than successful businesses and the Right has been driving busloads of votes out of our camp through our foolish failure to communicate with people who are natural allies.

* - I note that flashheart uses the (ahem!) correct spelling of “labour” so I’m going to assume that he’s Canadian, or at least Commonwealth.

One thing that drives me nuts, though: that subset of people who own or manage businesses who will almost masturbate to the concept of the concept of value-for-dollar when, say, complaining about taxes and government but can’t see it in front of their nose vis-a-vis their employees: specifically, their inability to grasp that paying minimum wage guarantees receiving minimum effort.  If the employee has no fiscal or personal stake in your business then why on earth should they do more than the bare minimum?  Why should they do more than what they’re paid for?

Comment #7: seeker6079  on  06/07  at  09:38 AM

Dammit!  Why the hell can’t service businesses be as easy to offshore other businesses?  It’s just not fair!

When workers in your American factory demand living wages, you can just pack the whole thing up and move it to Mexico.  When the Mexicans get too rich for their britches, you move to Indonesia, then to China, etc.

But if you have an ice cream shop, or a retail store, or a restaurant, what do you do?  You’re held hostage to Government Regulations that force you to pay those teenage slackers $6 or $7/per hour!  When you should be able to get away with $2.50/hour, or maybe even $1/hour!

How in the hell are you supposed to rise to and stay in the top tiers of society when the workers you exploit to get there are so damn greedy?...

Comment #8: MikeEss  on  06/07  at  10:19 AM

Jeez, Mike, aren’t we in a mood today!

Can I buy you an ice cream?

Comment #9: seeker6079  on  06/07  at  10:24 AM

I have a Latin maxim I made up just for people like Patterico:

Ne me terreas factis, iam ego decrevi

Do not trouble me with facts, I have already made up my mind.

Comment #10: ummeli  on  06/07  at  10:27 AM

IF someone asks me about ummeli I will reply, dignus est intrare.

Comment #11: seeker6079  on  06/07  at  10:35 AM

“Jeez, Mike, aren’t we in a mood today!”

I am in a bad mood all too often…sorry.  These kinds of things really piss me off. 

I was born and raised a conservative Republican (when both of those words actually meant something other than soulless immoral greedmeister).  I’ve am more than familiar with that cheapass attitude.

But as I get older, I’m turning into a Marxist…

Paying people too little to be able to fully participate in the economy is ultimately self-defeating. 

The conceptual nirvana which is the end result of current capitalist thinking in America is a barren wasteland consisting of two classes of people:  The underclass who are only employed at all because some things must be done in person, and the overclass who live off the exploitation of everyone else.
Imagine a country where you’re either rich, or you’re a rich person’s gardener, housemaid, restaurant worker, hotel clerk, etc.  No engineers, no programmers, no chemists, no factories or their workers, etc.  Everything that is not a required service job is off-shored to some third-world country.

We’ve already moved a long way in that direction.  Factories were among the first to exit because goods can be produced anywhere - so why not where wages are lowest?  Then things like customer support started getting moved offshore.  Then things like data-entry.  These were low-skill jobs that only required English-language skills and some minimal training. 

But it was always assumed that highly skilled jobs would remain in America, with only the “grunt-work” being moved.  However, that assumption has been destroyed.

There are skilled engineers, programmers, support people, scientists, designers, architects, etc., all over the world.  The US does not have a monopoly on these things any more.  People in other countries are as innovative (or more) than Americans are.  But we’ve been coasting on our past glories for so long we don’t see that the world has fundamentally changed.

China doesn’t need to use warfare to “drink our milkshake”, they can do it though business and economics.  And as long as the people at the top get their slice, they don’t give a shit what happens to the rest of us.

Welcome to America v2.0…

Comment #12: MikeEss  on  06/07  at  11:02 AM

Oh, maybe this also has to do with immigration policies that allow shops in resort areas to hire college students from abroad for “internships”?

Comment #13: Ms Kate  on  06/07  at  11:40 AM

Why is “small business” such a sacred cow that they think the get to underpay people, special treatment on labor laws, and exemption from workplace safety regulations????

Anybody with any sense knows that small businesses would proliferate if there was socialized health care in the US because more people would leave other jobs to take a chance. It is only the existing exploitative businesses that want you to think it is all the “regulation” that is “killing their profits” that means they don’t get to reenact slavery and squeeze money out of their workers like petty tyrant control freaks.

Comment #14: Ms Kate  on  06/07  at  11:47 AM

The Republicans always talk about how horribly inflationary minimum wage hikes are, but the dirty little secret is that massive tax cuts are even more inflationary. So is fiscal irresponsibility on the part of the federal government.

Comment #15: Ben D.  on  06/07  at  12:12 PM

“Why is “small business” such a sacred cow that they think the get to underpay people, special treatment on labor laws, and exemption from workplace safety regulations????”

I always figured the emphasis on “small business” served the same purpose as the emphasis on “family farms” - a cute, down home distraction from the fact that “large business” overwhelmingly dominates the business climate, just like “corporate farms” overwhelmingly dominate farming.

We don’t want to believe we are slaves to our corporate masters so we buy the myths to make our lives seem less empty than they really are…

Comment #16: MikeEss  on  06/07  at  12:13 PM

I’m not sure if anyone has brought this up yet, but it’s very unlikely that part-time employed high school and college students who make minimum wage have anything to do with the unemployment rate.  Such people are generally not eligible to go on unemployment, which as far as I know is how the unemployment rate is determined. 

But adults who work full-time minimum wage jobs?  Now they sure are eligible.  And tend not to be cute middle class students who only need the work for spending money.  Though I guess those folks still factor in this stupid anecdote about how all small businesses will close down if we raise the minimum wage, because if ice cream prices go up people will just stop buying it (which, anecdotally speaking, hasn’t been the case thus far in my experience - food prices have risen over the last few months, but i’ll still buy the occasional ice cream, even if it’s a quarter more expensive than it was last summer).

Comment #17: The Opoponax  on  06/07  at  12:15 PM

Not all regulation is created equal. Some government regulation does indeed help big business at the expense of small business, but this usually isn’t the kind of regulation proposed by Democrats.

Its another unfortunate effect on our language of the conservative ascendancy since 1980 that now all government regulation is seen as the same.

Comment #18: Ben D.  on  06/07  at  12:15 PM

”(which, anecdotally speaking, hasn’t been the case thus far in my experience - food prices have risen over the last few months, but i’ll still buy the occasional ice cream, even if it’s a quarter more expensive than it was last summer).”

But don’t you see Opoponax, according to the story, because of the increase in the minimum wage shoved cruelly down the throats of American businessmen, that cone which would have cost you $2.50 before would now have to sell for over $9 Just To Break Even!!!

(math does not seem to be a conservative strongpoint…)

Comment #19: MikeEss  on  06/07  at  12:30 PM

I am so sick of these goddamned cheapskates carrying on about having to pay their employees an extra 50 cents an hour. Hey, fuckhead, if employing people is so onerous, why don’t you go to work for someone else and see how YOU like it.

Comment #20: Bitter Scribe  on  06/07  at  01:06 PM

if employing people is so onerous, why don’t you go to work for someone else and see how YOU like it.

Or, hey, why not fire all your employees and do all the work yourself, or hire the wife and kids for “an allowance”?  Teh Evul immigrants seem to be doing OK with that model…

Comment #21: The Opoponax  on  06/07  at  01:32 PM

The part I find most amusing is that minimum wage laws are about the fairest cost increase a small business owner gets because they affect all of the competition equally. Most of the other things vary in their effects - e.g. milk prices are going to hurt the people without large, long-term contracts the most, health insurance affects people with small plans and no full-time negotiators, etc. The owner of our small neighborhood coffee shop got hit with a massive health-insurance increase (roughly $400/mo -> $750/mo IIRC) a couple of months ago - since she has at most one other person working alongside her, that’s more than the equivalent of minimum wage jumping from $5 to $7 and it was unpredictable and, worse, places like Starbucks didn’t have anything like a corresponding jump.

Comment #22: Chris Adams  on  06/07  at  01:52 PM

Anybody with any sense knows that small businesses would proliferate if there was socialized health care in the US because more people would leave other jobs to take a chance. It is only the existing exploitative businesses that want you to think it is all the “regulation” that is “killing their profits” that means they don’t get to reenact slavery and squeeze money out of their workers like petty tyrant control freaks.

That needed saying again.

Comment #23: Auguste  on  06/07  at  03:54 PM

Oh, wait. Aren’t ice cream stands considered restaurants, in which case tippable staff are in many states not subject to the standard minimum wage? Also, assuming the typical 12-14 hour opening time of an ice cream stand, that would mean an average staff of 3 plus owners/managers, which you only need if you’re selling into the hundreds of cones an hour (in which case minimum wage is definitely not your problem). I call bullshit.

Oh, and one other thing: this must be the first year ever that high school and colleges students went out to look for summer jobs. Because otherwise the (actually very good) economists at the BLS would have data from how the summer-job influx affected the raw numbers, and the young-people unemployment rate would be, y’know, seasonally adjusted just like all the other major numbers the BLS releases.

Comment #24: paul  on  06/07  at  06:05 PM

I think what Chris said also needs saying again (and again and again). In a privately-owned business, direct wages are usually the smallest and least relevant portion of the cash outflow. Inventory, maintenance, rent/lease/mortgage, transportation and advertising cost a whole hell of a lot more than paying your employees.

And just to provide a counter-anecdote to Patterico’s useless maundering: My father recently dabbled in owning an ice cream store (two, actually) and eventually had to sell them off, not because he was driven broke by the government audaciously forcing him to pay his employees, but because selling ice cream is an inherently crappy business. Even if it weren’t a largely seasonal product, it’d still be damn near impossible to turn a useful profit off of it, because A) there’s nothing to mark up and B) nobody is going to pay more than about $3.50 for an ice cream cone (unless they’re eating at a Wolfgang Puck restaurant).

Food service is a bad industry on which to base an anti-minimum-wage argument, anyway, since those businesses tend to have pretty razor-thin profit margins regardless of the prevailing economic environment. Celebrity chefs aren’t rich because it’s just so easy to run a restaurant profitably, they’re rich because their restaurants generally target a clientele that can afford to buy already-expensive foodstuffs that are very easy to mark up further at the point of sale.

That’s a rule that cuts across all industries, anyway: If the things you’re selling aren’t expensive to begin with, you’re not going to make a huge profit. It’s easy to get rich selling BMWs for a living. But if you’re selling selling $3 ice cream cones at the mall, not so much.

Comment #25: Dan, Grand High Emperor of Bananas Foster  on  06/07  at  06:22 PM

Celebrity chefs aren’t rich because it’s just so easy to run a restaurant profitably, they’re rich because their restaurants generally target a clientele that can afford to buy already-expensive foodstuffs that are very easy to mark up further at the point of sale.

If you ever watch “Gordon Ramsay’s Kitchen Nightmares” on BBC America, his mantra for a successful restaurant is fresh local ingredients (which are always cheaper) made into simple dishes.  Spending a huge amount of money on really expensive imported ingredients is a one-way ticket to running yourself out of business.

Comment #26: Mnemosyne  on  06/07  at  06:42 PM

Hey, each scoop at Baskin Robbins used to be a quarter!!!  $0.75 for a triple!  Why should I pay more than that just b/c Donny Osmond had the #1 record at the time?

Ice cream (and Italian Ice) here in Chicago will cost you more than $3.50.  People pay it if it’s ‘gelato’ or ‘custard’.

Plus, asshole’s paying ‘part-time’ minimum wage.  Over the summer, kids will work full time.  Really, they do.  So will adults.  But then you might have to pay for benefits, so, damn, there go profits again.

I’m with Mike Ess and becoming more Marxist as I age.  Capitalism, unrestrained and unregulated, is going to destroy the Republic.  Can’t have a real democracy when landed gentry own everything and most people are desperate just to keep their homes.

Funny, since all my high school friends in RepublicanLand (Indiana) always told me I’d be a Republican when I “grew up”.

Comment #27: Caren  on  06/07  at  07:32 PM

Anybody else have a sudden hankering for Dairy Queen?
I so need a blizzard right now…

Comment #28: hbsweet, empress of ice cream  on  06/07  at  07:46 PM

Ms Kate has it about right.  Where I live (in Canada, but specifically the city I live in) has a really superb set of government programmes besides the single-payer healthcare, and our small business climate is fantastic.

I (as usual) don’t agree with Seeker about the NDP; I think everyone to the right of them (which is pretty much everyone else) says that about them, that they’re anti-business and everything, but they’re actually disturbingly pro-corporate for an ostensible labour party.  But the Liberals and the CRAPs wouldn’t be able to hand the baton back and forth ad infinitum if people actually knew that, so it’s a convenient piece of propaganda.

Comment #29: Interrobang  on  06/07  at  09:05 PM

Celebrity chefs aren’t rich because it’s just so easy to run a restaurant profitably, they’re rich because their restaurants generally target a clientele that can afford to buy already-expensive foodstuffs that are very easy to mark up further at the point of sale.

Well, to be perfectly honest, Celebrity Chefs make money because they’re famous enough to sell their own name as a brand, usually via the media.  They’re in the intellectual property business, not the food business.  And even so, celebrity != wealth, and it’s certainly possible to make good money as an executive chef who is not famous.

Comment #30: The Opoponax  on  06/07  at  09:44 PM

“Ms Kate has it about right.  Where I live (in Canada, but specifically the city I live in) has a really superb set of government programmes besides the single-payer healthcare, and our small business climate is fantastic.”

It’s only because you take the take the treasures that we Americans mine out of capitalism.

We give you gold, and you gilded Canadian fatcats only give us more canaries.

Comment #31: Jesse Taylor  on  06/07  at  10:13 PM

“I am so sick of these goddamned cheapskates carrying on about having to pay their employees an extra 50 cents an hour. Hey, fuckhead, if employing people is so onerous, why don’t you go to work for someone else and see how YOU like it.”

Or, if wages above a certain level are so important to you, why don’t you try providing them yourself, instead of spending that energy trying to compel others to do so?

Comment #32: Benquo  on  06/08  at  02:34 AM

Or, if wages above a certain level are so important to you, why don’t you try providing them yourself, instead of spending that energy trying to compel others to do so?

So did it hurt? falling out of the stupid tree, I mean.

I’m at a loss for artful metaphors about how stupid that was. allow me to rephrase your comment and the one you quoted into a more clear context.

“If driving under the speed limit is too complicated a concept for you, perhaps you shouldn’t own a car.”
“Well, if you think people should only drive under a certain speed, maybe you should go FASTER than that and see how you like it!”

Comment #33: karpad  on  06/08  at  04:17 AM

To maximize their profits, pretty much every service industry outfit out there is already running on a skeleton crew.

And let’s see how well those businesses survive when their customers have to wait in long lines for shoddy service.  Perhaps customers would prefer to pay a little more.

Comment #34: keshmeshi  on  06/09  at  04:06 PM
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