Leading the polls in the summer does not equate to success in November, so it is inconsequential that McCain hasn’t led Obama. It is dispositive, however, that the Obamessiah hasn’t been able to get over 50% in any poll. McCain is a known quantity, which is part of the reason he hasn’t garnered as much interest. Obama is new! Fresh! Improved! But his poll numbers don’t reflect the American fixation on new and different.

Hey, Sanjay interviewing Matthew McConaughey is infinitely less like to damage the Republic than the courtier media fellating St. BBQ.

And Sharon, it’s really rare for any candidate in a race this big to top 50% this early because pollsters aren’t pushing leaners or undecideds very hard to make a choice. Don’t let reality get in the way of your “Obamamessiah” bullshit, though, by all means.

No, it’s not rare. Michael Dukakis had a 17-point lead over George H.W. Bush in 1988. Jimmy Carter led Gerald Ford by 33 points in 1976. And George W. Bush had an 8-point lead over Al Gore in 2000 (not to rub any salt in the still, still, still open wounds, mind you). And don’t forget, the party out of power nearly always leads in spring and summer polling because people like the idea of “change” until they have to pull the lever in November.

Now, you might argue that Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush still won, even though their leads evaporated, but the point is that the summer polling wasn’t entirely accurate. So, touting Obama’s 5-point lead, in a summer poll, when he’s the challenger, does not spell a big win for him in November.

Is this an argument?

Maybe not an argument. It’s just the truth.

If you’re known, and you aren’t garnering enough interest to get a plurality, let alone a majority, and you’re at such a point for months on end…isn’t that a serious problem?

Not really. When Americans have to make a decision about where they want the country to go, they are more likely to go with a candidate with whom they are familiar rather than “hope” and “change.” The problem for Barack Obama is that he works better as an abstract figure than as a real politician.

Currently on CNN’s front page the link: “Obama faces uphill polling battle” takes us to a story that lays out a 48% - 43% Obama lead in the CNN “Poll of Polls”.  The wily and wrinkled white-haired dude has backed Obama into a corner, saddled him with a lead outside the margin of error. It’s downhill the rest of the way for the experienced straight-talking maverick!!!

Not really. When Americans have to make a decision about where they want the country to go, they are more likely to go with a candidate with whom they are familiar rather than “hope” and “change.”

Of course, which is why Herbert Hoover won re-election in 1932 and then-Vice President Nixon crushed John Kennedy in the 1960 election.

See, you may not have noticed, Sharon, but the country is going to shit right now.  People can’t afford to pay for gas.  Unemployment is up for the fourth month in a row.  Banks are failing.  The value of people’s houses is plummeting.  And what is John McCain offering the country?  More of the same policies that got us into this hole in the first place.

But, hey, I guess all of this is happening because we’re a “nation of whiners,” right?  If we would all just straighten up and fly right, the economy would magically fix itself and there would be ponies and rainbows for everyone!

Let’s also not forget—as even Markos has surprisingly forgotten to emphasize lately—that national polls are always meaningless.  We don’t elect the President based on a single national ballot. You learn a lot more by aggregating state polls and compiling the associated electoral votes.

It’s not being touted.  It’s being pointed out by way of criticism of overreliance on polls.

So, you rely on other polls to show that there’s an overreliance on polls? Interesting approach.

See, you may not have noticed, Sharon, but the country is going to shit right now.

Well, no, the country isn’t going to shit right now. We are having some economic problems, but nothing in the historic range of previous times. So, yeah, “nation of whiners” sounds about right, to be honest. We live in far better times with better living standards than at any point in history. It’s pretty difficult to argue that somehow, because our economy might be struggling atm that it’s a catastrophe. And you might not like the policies John McCain offers, but taxing the hell out of everyone—and I do mean everyone—isn’t going to improve our economy. I guess if you think “tax the rich” is the best way to improve unemployment, then you’ll love the figures for an Obama administration.

But that’s all a little off the topic.

.”...in fact the better Obama does now, the worse he will lose in November, ain’t that right Sharon?…

MikeEss, you have a reading comprehension problem. Nowhere in the statement you quoted did I say Obama would lose in November. What I said is that leading in summer polling does not mean one will win in November and that isn’t unusual.

’cause if he was over 50%, that would indicate a complete sweep of congress for the Republicans, as well as POTUS, as everybody knows…

If Obama had a 20-point lead, it would be more evidence that Democrats will sweep the elections. At this point, with the presidential race so tight, there’s no reason for “everybody” to assume this.

actually, Sharon dear, the only thing McCain has going for him is he’s not Obama.  To most of us that’s a drawback, but to you Koolaid addicts, that’s enough…

Well, for most of us who are NOT the Koolaid drinkers, John McCain has more going for him than just not being Obama (although, I will admit, that’s a real plus). He has experience in government and in the military. He’s worked with Democrats and Republicans, which gives him some of that “bipartisan” flavor that Obama talks a lot about but doesn’t have much to put on the ol’ resume. And, of course, he thinks a comprehensive energy plan that includes drilling now is better than thinking everybody’s gonna use wind power to power their cars in the next 10 years. You know, the age of oil is over, according to Obama. Riiight.

so in typical wingnut fashion, instead if taking evidence which conflicts with your assumption and using it to reevaluate your assumption, you cling ever more strongly to your pre-conceived assumption — and are therefore confused when the real world does not match your expectations.

I’m not confused about anything. I pointed out that summer polls typically favor the out of office party but that such polls don’t mean much by Election Day. You guys are the ones who are confused when your candidates don’t win.

It must be because McCain is a natural, charismatic leader with experience winning a war (somewhere, nobody knows for sure where), so his personal magnetism and awesomeness must be the explanation.  Besides, did you hear he was a POW in Vietnam?…

Like many Americans, I find McCain’s service to this country in Vietnam to be exemplary, but it isn’t the only reason I prefer him. I know the fact that he actually suffered doesn’t mean anything here, but it isn’t the only reason to support him over Obama.

Another emerging problem with polls is that they don’t target cell phones. That may be changing, though. And, of course, Cris, you’re right that state polls are more important since it is the electoral college that elects the President.

You don’t have to look far to see leftwing sites questioning McCain’s captivity, Mike. Just as I can deny the hyperbole of your statements about not screaming “baby killer,” I’m sure you can deny personal responsibility for the trashing of McCain’s POW status.

I really don’t care how you were raised, Mike. Your behavior to anyone who disagrees speaks volumes about who you are now and how you view political disagreement.

The post was about polls and whether or not they are reliable. I answered that question.

Sharon, McCain made a great member of the bipartisan committee he chaired, with John Kerry, to help normalize relations between the US and Vietnam. He’d also make a great chair of the committee on to reform military procurement.

However, he’s not really that knowledgeable about policy matters, he opposes a bipartisan energy compromise, and he’s out of touch with the American people when it comes to the things they care most about, like health care and the Iraq war.

But, hey, he’s not Obama and he’s a Republican, and that’s enough for a lot of people. But I don’t reward failure, and the Republican party has been behind an avalanche of policy failures over the last decade. Electing McCain is nothing more than a form of “social promotion.”

The post was about polls and whether they are reliable

Basically, once Labor Day rolls around, the polls are going to be pretty static. I really don’t see what the McCain campaign pulls out of its hat to change the dynamic of the race. But I give McCain 3 weeks to overcome his huge disadvantages in terms of money, ground organization, and public revulsion at the Republican party.  He might even reclaim the “hip, cool, flyboy” persona he exploited to great effect in 2000, but I doubt it, given that he’s been overshadowed by Obama as the popular figure that he used to be.

This is much like 1992: Clinton was ahead in the polls over the summer, and he stayed ahead in the polls while the Bush campaign sputtered to defeat. There were similar dynamics at work as well: people were tired of Republicans, and the Republican candidate had little support from his own party.  The cult-of-personality that made up the GW Bush base of activists who came out to support him in droves would consider it a public insult to elect McCain, so I don’t see McCain being able to draw on any of GW Bush’s advantages. You can pretend that McCain has all these natural advantages that are going to overcome his current weakness, and you can talk about what a wonderful person he is (contra what everyone who has dealt with him personally seems to think) but it’s not going to happen.

Well, no, the country isn’t going to shit right now. We are having some economic problems, but nothing in the historic range of previous times. So, yeah, “nation of whiners” sounds about right, to be honest. We live in far better times with better living standards than at any point in history. It’s pretty difficult to argue that somehow, because our economy might be struggling atm that it’s a catastrophe.

You just keep whistling past that graveyard, Sharon.  Everything is for the best in this best of all possible worlds, eh?  I sure hope you don’t have an Alt-A adjustable rate mortgage, because that’s the market that the bottom is falling out of next—and it’s my Republican brother with a picture of Ronald Reagan on his desk who told me that.

And, yes, the fact that the economy is going down the tubes is what’s driving this election.  When 80 percent of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, you 20-percenters are going to have to do a lot of cheating to get the same-old same-old party into power.

I’m very happy that Obama is going on vacation right now.  Please, rest, then come back blazing and crush McCain.