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Next entry: Sarah Palin, working for the rapist lobby Previous entry: On impersonating politicians

The Utility Of Word Limits

This is the longest, angriest, least coherent way I can think of to say “I think Gallup changed their party ID numbers, because I huff glue.”

You see, if you look at Barack Obama’s support for the past week as compared to other weeks, it’s gone down in many ideological groups - he would have lost support!  And up through the 18th, he’d gained support!  Devious Gallup motherfuckers!

Except that if you look at the linked page which determines support by ideological subgroup, it ends on the 14th, not the 18th.  Which, of course, means that we need to look back to the 14th…which, of course, was when Obama was actually behind McCain

In fact, there’s no reason why there’d be data for the 18th, because it’s released weekly…and the last release would have been for the week ending the 14th.  Stupid explain that part of the post…outright crazy explains the rest of the rant about how a liberal troll on their site will lose the election for Barack Obama. 

There’s also this John Podhoretz classic in which he uses a poll of New York Jewish voters with an eleven point margin of error to show that there’s been a sea change in this election.  Given that a poll of a group of people with an eleven point margin of error pretty much only shows that said group of people exist, either Podhoretz is under the impression that Jews just gained the franchise, or he’s a functional political illiterate.  I’ll take whichever is more likely to get me accused of anti-Semitism, please.

 

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Posted by Jesse Taylor on 03:38 PM • (18) Comments

I hope you didn’t read all of that, Jesse.  I just looked at parts of it and I don’t have it in me to absorb all that furious incoherent sputtering.

Comment #1: Neil the Ethical Werewolf  on  09/20  at  04:19 PM

I really didn’t - I just jumped to the parts with the tables.  I assumed the rest was either fetish porn or a Townhall.com column.  Ah, but I repeat myself.

Comment #2: Jesse Taylor  on  09/20  at  04:32 PM

This thing really is Obama’s to lose. He doesn’t even have to win the debates, just tie. They got nothing left, and I don’t buy the “Bradley Effect” nonsense.

Comment #3: Ben D.  on  09/20  at  04:36 PM

there’s an idiot post on the Agonist like that.  It was saying that the DKos tracking poll is oversampling hispanics because makeup of the hispanic profile includes illegals.  Seriously.

Comment #4: shah8  on  09/20  at  04:49 PM

I think those polls are not taking into account a MAJOR variable.

During the primaries, Democrats turned out to vote at 2x, 3x, and even 4x the rate of Republicans.

Shouldn’t that affect the ratio of Democratic voters the pollsters interview?

Comment #5: Beast  on  09/20  at  04:59 PM

From the article:

“Democrats like to encourage the vermin on their side, while Republicans would generally prefer a clean contest.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Yeah, RIIIIIIIIIIGHT…

Do any of you remember the way the Repubes attacked Kerry for having an affluent wife?  Has anybody asked McCain how long he has to go down on Cindy before she gives him his allowance?

Does anyone remeber the Purple Heart Bandaids at the ‘04 Republican Convention?  How the ‘Pubes ridiculed Kerry’s heroism disregarding the fact that he still carries shrapnel under his hide, and was awared the Bronze Star and the Silver Star?  Doesn’t that give us carte blanche to ridicule McCains service?  Where are OUR Bandaids mocking McCain’s widdle POW boo-boos?

Comment #6: Beast  on  09/20  at  05:26 PM

I mentally drop 4% off of Obama for what i call the “Liz Lemon Effect”.  Last year on “30 Rock”, Tina Fey’s character told people she was voting for Obama, but would really be voting for McCain.  What’s odd is that that episode aired last Fall, before the primaries even got started.

So according to the Lemon Effect, it’s still way too close.

Comment #7: pablo  on  09/20  at  06:10 PM

I see Beast beat me to it on this: “while Republicans would generally prefer a clean contest”.

Yup.  Just like the 1970s Philadelphia Flyers were furious that their clean play was never appreciated the way that the dirty play of their opponents were.

Comment #8: seeker6079  on  09/20  at  06:34 PM

I believe you left out the third option: Podhoretz is a propagandist.

Comment #9: befuggled  on  09/20  at  07:44 PM

Has anybody asked McCain how long he has to go down on Cindy before she gives him his allowance?

If I were her, I’d pay him not to touch me.

Comment #10: keshmeshi  on  09/20  at  08:05 PM

If I were her, I’d pay him not to touch me.

keshmeshi on 09/20 at 07:05 PM
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I’ve always wondered about that relationship.  For instance, the fact that she was a Percocet/Vicodin junkie for three years, and apparently John McCain never noticed:

“In describing her struggle with drugs, McCain has said that she became addicted to Vicodin and Percocet in early 1989 after rupturing two disks and having back surgery. She has said she hid her addiction from her husband, Sen. John McCain, and stopped taking the painkillers in 1992 after her parents confronted her. She has not discussed what kind of treatment she received for her addiction, but she has made clear that she believes she has put her problems behind her.

While McCain’s accounts have captured the pain of her addiction, her journey through this personal crisis is a more complicated story than she has described, and it had more consequences for her and those around her than she has acknowledged.

Her misuse of painkillers prompted an investigation by the Drug Enforcement Administration and local prosecutors that put her in legal jeopardy. A doctor with McCain’s medical charity who supplied her with prescriptions for the drugs lost his license and never practiced again. The charity, the American Voluntary Medical Team, eventually had to be closed in the wake of the controversy. Her husband was forced to admit publicly that he was absent much of the time she was having problems and was not aware of them.”

Comment #11: Beast  on  09/20  at  08:21 PM

I don’t care if Cindy McCain snarfs down Oxy on a daily basis. Then again, I’m for drug legalization.

What bothers me is her husband putting people in prison for the same thing she did, while she gets a 5-star hotel “rehab” as “punishment”.

Comment #12: Ben D.  on  09/20  at  08:27 PM

This thing really is Obama’s to lose. He doesn’t even have to win the debates, just tie. They got nothing left, and I don’t buy the “Bradley Effect” nonsense.

I don’t either… I think if the so-called “Bradley Effect” (which was a real phenomenon… a freaking quarter century ago) was going to play out enough to change the overall outcome, it already would have in the primaries.

I agree with the consensus opinion of Andrew Sullivan and will.i.am from last night’s Real Time with Bill Mahr... people under the age of 40 in general are not really freaked out by Obama being black as opposed to the older generation - they (mostly we, here) don’t find the notion of black presidency to be such an (racist dog whistle word) “exotic” thing.

And I think the turnout among African-Americans and youth voters is going to be historically high this year, and if it is… this is gonna be an Obama blowout.

Comment #13: DTG in STL  on  09/20  at  09:34 PM

Does anyone remeber the Purple Heart Bandaids at the ‘04 Republican Convention?  How the ‘Pubes ridiculed Kerry’s heroism disregarding the fact that he still carries shrapnel under his hide, and was awared the Bronze Star and the Silver Star?  Doesn’t that give us carte blanche to ridicule McCains service?  Where are OUR Bandaids mocking McCain’s widdle POW boo-boos?

Horrible idea.

While what the Republicans did in 2004 was nothing short of shameful in their attacks on Kerry, comparing the extent of Kerry’s Vietnam injuries to those sustained by John McCain is insulting to most people’s intelligence.  I’m not trying to defend McCain here, but the dude really did get fucked up pretty bad over there - much worse than did John Kerry, and it ain’t even close.  If the campaign or a 527 group were to refer to McCain’s injuries as “widdle POW boo boos”, it would seriously piss off more than half of America, and could cost Obama the election.

What I do think is completely fair to ridicule is the constant POW references McCain uses as a defense for any totally unrelated criticism levied against him, and the idea that he’s presenting his POW experience as one of his leading qualifications for the office.

If 527 groups decide to mass produce “POW bandaids” as a weapon against McCain’s time in the Hanoi Hilton, it would kneecap Obama and severely hurt him in the election, because it would cause quite an outrage and put him in a spot where he would have to be making a denunciation everyday and practically beg his supporters to stop attacking McCain’s military service.

I don’t recommend this strategy at all, and if one of Obama’s senior campaign staffers were to suggest it, I imagine they would be quickly unemployed.

Comment #14: DTG in STL  on  09/20  at  09:45 PM

I don’t recommend this strategy at all, and if one of Obama’s senior campaign staffers were to suggest it, I imagine they would be quickly unemployed.

DTG in STL on 09/20 at 08:45 PM
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Of course they’d be fired, and yes, it’s a horrible idea.

It just chaps my ass that the Repubes actually pull crap like that and not only get away with it, they win elections.

My “POW Bandaid” is just a metaphor.  When are we going to fight back against these a-holes?

Comment #15: Beast  on  09/20  at  10:11 PM

It just chaps my ass that the Repubes actually pull crap like that and not only get away with it, they win elections.

I believe the Republican Party’s greatest strength is their appeal to our greatest fears, and to the ugliest and most condescending aspects of the American spirit.

The greatest success of the Republican Convention was in how good they were at making liberals out to be the worst of the worst in America.

Democrats greatest strength is when they appeal to our greatest hopes and dreams about what America COULD BE, and about the equality of all of us as human beings worthy of basic dignity and respect.

The greatest success at the Democratic Convention was in how good they were in appealing to the best of the best in all of us.

We Democrats don’t win elections when we try to convince the electorate that we are any good at being bad.  And Republicans don’t win elections when they reveal how truly bad they are at trying to be good.

Comment #16: DTG in STL  on  09/20  at  11:55 PM

I agree with the consensus opinion of Andrew Sullivan and will.i.am from last night’s Real Time with Bill Mahr… people under the age of 40 in general are not really freaked out by Obama being black as opposed to the older generation - they (mostly we, here) don’t find the notion of black presidency to be such an (racist dog whistle word) “exotic” thing.

Exactly. That’s why even among white males under 40, Obama leads McCain.

Comment #17: Ben D.  on  09/21  at  12:12 PM

I think there are also a lot of southern white guys who will vote for Obama but aren’t saying it because they don’t want to admit voting for a black guy. I think that’s why his margin overshot his poll numbers by a good deal in North Carolina and Virginia during the primaries, for example.

Comment #18: Ben D.  on  09/21  at  12:14 PM
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