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Next entry: Iowa Caucuses do Obama a giant favor Previous entry: Satan cloaks himself in truth

What To Expect In Iowa Tonight

First, I (@pandagon) and Amanda (@amandamarcotte) will be offering up commentary on the Iowa Caucuses on Twitter tonight. Follow us for fun and hilarity and idle ruminations on how awesome it would be if a giggly-drunk Rick Perry showed up at Romney's victory party and offered to weed his garden, if you know what I mean.

Second, a bit on what to expect tonight:

  • People you've never seen before, but whom news networks will assure you are Iowa political experts, will very solemnly lead you through the complex political topography of Iowa, such that by the end of the night you'll be having debates over what the returns from Cedar Rapids signify.
  • You should decide what you want the post-Iowa narrative to be by late afternoon today. Say it loudly, and you can be Chris Matthews. Say it in an even-keeled voice and then ask David Brooks if that's right, and you can be David Gregory. Roll around on the ground in a blonde wig and spit up your oatmeal, and you can be Victoria Jackson.
  • Your Ron Paul-supporting friends on Facebook will say something insufferable, no matter what happens.
  • After nearly a year of candidates running for President of Fox News, yo-yoing up and down the polls at dizzying rates and barely showing any recognition that running for president is a thing that requires more forethought than a glorified professional wrestling promo, the top four campaigns coming out of Iowa will be the best-organized: Romney, Paul, Santorum and Perry.
  • Look out for lots of old people and lots of young white dudes saying things that only young white dudes say.
  • Casseroles out the ass. If we ever go back to the Articles of Confederation, the coin of the Republic of Iowa will be casserole.

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Posted by Jesse Taylor on 10:58 AM • (25) Comments

Before you end the night thinking ill of Iowans, consider the following:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=73vsqcpkFes

Comment #1: Zifnab  on  01/03  at  12:02 PM

Thanks Zifnab!

This Iowan wants it all to be over with quickly, and for there to be a national primary next time, so that I don’t have Santorums and Bachmanns junking up my favorite diner all the time.

Comment #2: vodkavonstroheim  on  01/03  at  12:07 PM

Your Ron Paul-supporting friends on Facebook will say something insufferable, no matter what happens.

Yep. I’m going to stay away from Facebook for a while, I think. I just can’t handle the irony of a bunch of rather comfortable middle to upper middle class white, straight dudes I used to call “friends” whinging about their infringed “freedom” and how Ron Paul is going to fix ALL THE THINGS if only our corrupt government would give him the chance. Mentioning this irony is of course the equivalent of throwing down the gauntlet for a facebook war I really do not care to have.

Not that the GOP primaries are ever anything other than garbage, but this one has been a real doosey and has really made me think about defriending a bunch of people who’s blether I no longer care to see blowing up my news feed.

Comment #3: LaylaBug  on  01/03  at  12:11 PM

I like casseroles and I don’t feel bad about that.

Comment #4: Triplanetary  on  01/03  at  01:28 PM

*yaaaaawn*

Please. It’s all a distracting Dog & Pony & Goats Dressed Up In Victoria’s Secret Underthingies Show to distract from what everybody already knows is gonna happen: Mittens has this all sewn up.

Why? Because out of all the offensive and putrid candidates available, he’s (on the surface) the least offensive. Also - he’s a Mormon. And that’s basically a cult. Thereby ensuring that he will lose & we will get another four years of Obama.

Which is exactly what the GOP, the corporate robber-barons & the 1% want.

Again, why? Because it’s far easier to blame, complain & whine for another four years than to fix an economic situation that, in their eyes, is desirable. Far better to bitch on the surface while working behind the scenes to steal away more of our civil liberties, gain a stronger corporate footing & fuel more tensions for another patriotic holy war.

It’s a gamble on their part that public opinion will be far more in their favor come 2016 than it is now.

Let’s focus less on ‘Dancing with the Assholes’ and more on ensuring that they never get a chance to screw us over ever again.

Comment #5: MHF  on  01/03  at  02:53 PM

You’re made of sterner stuff than I, if you can watch this, but I’d feel like the subject of an auto-da-fe.

Comment #6: judybrowni  on  01/03  at  03:12 PM

Facebook is currently rage inducing to me as my mother
- who attended college through a MEd via guarenteed student loans and pell grants while a divorced woman with 3 children throughout the 1970s (‘72-78); spent part of those years receiving welfare, food stamps and/or subsudized housing; with the children in free/reduced lunch programs with subsudies for extra curricular activites (both in and after school, the later amounting to subsudized after school programs); and once started working received the earned income tax credit and mortgage intrest tax credit and currently receives SS and gov medical support -
has been posting crap like “which is better, Reagan years or Obama Years”, “It’s time for the government to get those austerity programs going!” and similar.

Comment #7: helen w. h.  on  01/03  at  03:37 PM

I’m intrigued to figure out who is going to come in second overall in the race.  Mittens is going to win this nomination but if Newt Gingrich wins 2nd throughout it’ll be a even more hilarious 2016 against Biden or some newcomer..

Iowa is such a non-indicator of the actual US that it intrigues me why we put so much emphasis on them.  I pray for the day of national primaries soon…

Comment #8: Xeranar  on  01/03  at  04:52 PM

I am sooooooo fucking tired of hearing about the 100,000 people in nobody-gives-a-shit-aboutland who are the-most-important-people-EVAR for a fucking year.  I want the Iowa caucus dead, now; murder, suicide, a pact with New Hampshire, I don’t fucking care.  Kudos to Jesse and Amanda for making funnies over bigoted asshats, but my sanity can’t take anymore.

Comment #9: veggiegirl2  on  01/03  at  06:25 PM

Whatever happens in Iowa, we can count on one thing: if you thought the Republican rabble was about stupid-n-angry in the summer of ‘09, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

Comment #10: Xecklothxayyquou Gilchrist  on  01/03  at  06:37 PM

The Reagan years were much better than the Obama years, which is why we should go back to the tax levels that prevailed in Reagan’s day.

Comment #11: Punditus Maximus  on  01/03  at  07:30 PM

Oh my, the Frothy Mixture looks like the big winner tonight.

And the Iowa GOP Presidential Caucus continues its descent into total irrelevance.

Comment #12: DTGslu2K  on  01/04  at  12:39 AM

You’re made of sterner stuff than I, if you can watch this, but I’d feel like the subject of an auto-da-fe.

Auto-da-fe? what’s an auto-da-fe?

Comment #13: karpad  on  01/04  at  01:04 AM

Santorum surges!

NotRomney-itis or just an indicator of how fucked up conservative Christians are?

And if Romney can’t beat the toxic clown car of also rans, how does he expect to beat Obama?

Seriously?  Santorum?  Unreal.  I wanted him gone like Cain.

Comment #14: Caren-Sun-blocking Creator of Animorphic Pancakes  on  01/04  at  01:05 AM

Santorum is the last candidate to get a surge and he isn’t a minority (Cain), a woman (Bachmanan), a disturbed psychopath with no handle on society (Gingrich/Paul - It really is a toss up), or a normal person with a slightly right-wing point of view (Huntsman).  In the end Santorum’s surge was inevitable just like Mike Huckabee’s surge was 4 years ago.  Iowa is full of cranky old white folks who seem to think that their state isn’t funded by huge agricultural subsidies or general cash welfare directly to their local governments.  The real interest here is what was said earlier on CNN as I flipped by to catch the end results: Can the anti-Romney vote consolidate around Santorum or is it merely a slow stroll for Mittens to the nomination?  I think Mittens has the nomination but I don’t think he can safely lock it up until Super Tuesday or a later date by which time Obama will have only to pound him for 5 months while the Republicans beat on him for the other 5.

Comment #15: Xeranar  on  01/04  at  01:39 AM

Biggest surprise of the night - Rick Perry basically calling it quits after just one contest. I really expected him to be the not-Romney who would go the distance with Mittens.

Bachmann, Huntsman, and Perry will all officially drop out after the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday.

Comment #16: DTGslu2K  on  01/04  at  01:56 AM

So…does this mean that there will be a Santorum tsunami heading towards New Hampshire?  (Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.)

Comment #17: Fatman  on  01/04  at  01:57 AM

Auto-da-fe? what’s an auto-da-fe?

An auto-da-fé (also auto da fé and auto de fe) was the ritual of public penance of condemned heretics and apostates that took place when the Spanish Inquisition or the Portuguese Inquisition had decided their punishment, followed by the execution by the civil authorities of the sentences imposed. Both auto de fe in medieval Spanish and auto da fé in Portuguese mean “act of faith”.

As the burning at the stake for heresy was perhaps the most profound aspect of many autos-da-fé, this particular aspect of it, that is, the act of burning at the stake eventually became the primary meaning of the phrase in popular usage, despite the fact that such was not its original meaning.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auto-da-fé

In other words, if I could have brought myself to watch the Republican Iowa caucus (or any Republican debate, for that matter) I’d have felt tortured by religious hypocrites and fanatics

Comment #18: judybrowni  on  01/04  at  02:28 AM

99.5% of Iowa precincts reporting:

Rick Santorum 29,968
Mitt Romney 29,964

Wow… 4 votes difference. Has to be the closest Iowa caucus of all time.

Comment #19: DTGslu2K  on  01/04  at  03:22 AM

Fatman, I hope not as I live on the border.  The Santorum swirling on our airwaves in the form of political ads is bad enough already, I can’t wait for next Wednesday.
DTGslu2K, I think it was 8 votes by the end, and yes, that’s what they are saying anyway.

Comment #20: helen w. h.  on  01/04  at  10:02 AM

Auto-da-fe? What’s an auto-da-fe?

It’s what you ought not to do, but you do anyway! >:-)

Comment #21: Sutehp  on  01/04  at  03:45 PM

The Santorum swirling on our airwaves in the form of political ads is bad enough already, I can’t wait for next Wednesday. DTGslu2K, I think it was 8 votes by the end, and yes, that’s what they are saying anyway.

It was Romney winning by 8 votes in the end - Santorum led Romney by 4 in the last count before Romney was declared winner.

Frothy Mix is going to get buried in New Hampshire by Romney, who will ultimately be the nominee. Santorum is the 2012 version of Huckabee, and Romney is the 2012 version of McCain.

All of this bodes well for Obama’s re-election hopes.

Comment #22: DTGslu2K  on  01/04  at  05:51 PM

...you’ll be having debates over what the returns from Cedar Rapids signify.

lots of young white dudes saying things that only young white dudes say.

Cedar Rapids in da house, yo!  smile

So…since Cedar Rapids is an urban area, the Republicans are generally going to be more moderate than in the rural areas of the state.  (And certainly more moderate than those areas in the northwest or the south!)  Likewise, there are more “independents.”  Therefore it should have been expected that Linn County would vote either Romney or Paul.  And therefore there is nothing significant about them.

Comment #23: Leo Buzalsky  on  01/04  at  08:30 PM

What’s funniest about this is just how little the Ames Straw Poll meant, in that Romney didn’t participate at all and Santorum got fourth, behind Pawlenty who dropped out because of that! I wonder what Timmy thinks of that now…

Comment #24: Erda  on  01/05  at  01:39 AM

Pay me no attention; I’m just trying to find out if I’m really registered.

Comment #25: Older  on  01/05  at  02:39 PM
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