Maybe I’m not cynical enough, but there is a direct historical analogue to a future government shutdown with the shutdown of 1995, which undoubtedly weakened Gingrich’s conservative coalition. The right wing at that time was focused on hating Clinton just as it is currently focused on hating Obama. Remember outlandish stuff like Vince Foster? Not too far removed from the Kenya stuff. You are correct that voters don’t assign blame because they don’t pay attention, but when something as massive as a government shutdown occurs, they do pay attention to it and are consequently better informed. I’m a big believer in democracy, and majorities of informed voters are usually correct.

I don’t know. In 1994, I was pretty politically unaware and also not yet fully recovered from my republican upbringing, so I was not unlike the masses of “independent” out there. I didn’t blame Clinton for the shutdown. If I thought about it at all, I just thought Newt Gingrich was a dick.

I can’t imagine a talking tangerine like Boehner is going to come off as any less of a dick.

In theory, it should be in their own best interests not to orchestrate a government shutdown by basically refusing to work with the White House on anything.  But I suspect that they think this is the best idea in the world, because they’re pretty convinced that the nation will blame Obama.

Frankly, I don’t think they’re even that rational.  They think it’s the best idea in the world because they have the mentality of five-year-olds who have decided that if their classmates aren’t willing to let them make up the rules of the game as they go along, they’re going to take their ball and go home.  Oh, and hold their breath until they turn blue, too.

If they get the chance, they’re going to shut down the government because they can.  Any “reasons” they come up with will be rationalizations after the fact.

But hey, maybe I’m too cynical about this.

Bwahahahah - oh, Amanda, you so funny...

“But hey, maybe I’m too cynical about this.”

At this point, I’m not sure it’s possible to be too cynical about what the Reichwing will do (to us).  As long as there is even one Democrat or one non-Teabagger Republican left in office somewhere, they have a ready target to explain away any of the negative effects their scorched-earth bring.

After all, this is the same group who is still able to sell the idea that reducing taxes is revenue neutral, while also blaming the huge deficits that result on the Democrats.  And the Teabagging Morons just eat it up.

Remember the (many) Big Lies of the Reichwing:

We’re for Real Americans! (as long at they’re Millionaires…)

We’ll cut everyone’s taxes so you can keep more of your money! (only applies if your name is Gates, Buffet, Hilton, Walton, or Koch…)

We’re for cutting government spending and controlling the size of government! (only applies to Social Security, Medicare, and AFDC.  Everything else, especially the War Department will get much, much bigger…)

We’re for balanced budgets! (only applies to Democratic Presidents, Governors, and Mayors…)

We support the American Family! (that’s why they marry, have affairs — straight and gay, get divorced, and re-marry so often — so they can support as many of their own families as possible…)

We believe in accountability! (which is why Dick Cheney, David Addington, John Yoo, and Jay Bybee are still walking around free…)

We believe in transparency in government! (which is why Cheney and Rove could “lose” thousands of emails and never be held accountable, the CIA can “lose” interrogation tapes, and we can have Secret Military Tribunals instead of Public Trials By Jury…)

We’ll keep government from intruding into your lives! (...unless you have a vagina and/or working ovaries, sleep in a bedroom, like people of the same gender, engage in fellatio or cunnilingus or anal sex, use birth control, disagree with the government, or live in any Islamic country or any country that has oil.  Does apply very strongly if you live in New Orleans, are poor, are old, or need medical care which you can’t afford…)

Etc…

To quote the philosopher Tomlin: No matter how cynical I get, it’s never enough.

As a S/F fan I’m curious about the future Fascist States of America.
Will it resemble Imperial England with the sweatshops and the projection of military power where ever the Captains of Industry demand the resources?
Or will it collapse into something more resembling Inquisition era Spain?

The Republicans managed to blame Clinton for the ‘95 shut down, even while they were doing it, so I don’t have a lot of hope that voters are actually paying attention. I remember being amazed at the time how well the lie that it was Clinton’s fault went over.

It’s all gladiatorial kabuki at this point, and need make no more sense than a badly-edited reality show about hamster runway models with guns. Boehner could personally set fire to Indianapolis, and blame the SEIU in order to turn them into manacled Appalachian coal miners. Palin speaks out against the Dove burners, and so she now owns Pakistan, and that makes Trig into Jesus II.

Perhaps there’s been a much slower-working form of mad cow in our food supply all along. But whatever the reason, tag, you’re enslaved.

Really Egnu? My memory is just the opposite.  I thought the Republicans were overwhelmingly blamed for the shut down in 95 and Clinton not so much.  I was young then and at a liberal college so maybe it was just my particular environment.

“Will it resemble Imperial England with the sweatshops and the projection of military power where ever the Captains of Industry demand the resources?
Or will it collapse into something more resembling Inquisition era Spain?”

I’d like to think that we can use our bloated sense of exceptionalism, poor education, crazy superstitions, arrogance, and a large dollop of good old-fashioned American Ingenuity to combine the worst aspects of both those high-points of human history in our budding fascist dictatorship.  We’re all about innovation!...

If the Republicans just take the House there maybe some action think Obama’s caving will force the Senate to act on stuff it might otherwise pass on.

One thing I think people haven’t really became aware of yet is this is it for Pelosi.  We are about to lose the one consistently liberal voice with any sort of power and most likely her career in leadership is over.

Wow, I would so much rather speculate about future Failed State America than do my actual job right now. I think it will involve a lot of tribal warfare based around professional and college football. Well, insofar as there are still colleges.

For the record, I don’t think that there’s any significant chance that the Republicans will retake the House. I think the polls miss both Obama’s GOTV operation and the laser-like focus the Democrats will have on scaring the bejesus out of everyone with Boehner’s orange pumpkin face. The laser-like focus they totally lacked on actually helping America.

“I have this weird image of “Squatter Suburbs”, where the homeless and unemployed have taken over foreclosed communities, driving those with jobs into the more exclusive gated communities, and reclaim urban enclaves.”

“I think it will involve a lot of tribal warfare based around professional and college football. Well, insofar as there are still colleges.”

I would guess there’ll be a lot of Blackwater-style private military units roaming around, enforcing curfews, manning checkpoints, and protecting Real (Rich) Americans from the unwashed, unemployed, and homeless proles.

If we’re really lucky, Jessica Alba, complete with barcode on the back of her neck, will be involved in the struggle against the government…

I don’t know, felagund.  One should never underestimate the Democrats’ ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  If I had to put money on it, I’d bet that the Dems lose not only the House but the Senate as well.  I’m afraid we may even lose Barbara Boxer and Russ Feingold.  Happy to be wrong, of course.

Just when we Californians were ready to get rid of Governor Schwartznegger, we’re faced with the prospect of Senator Fiorina.  Gah!

As a S/F fan I’m curious about the future Fascist States of America.
Will it resemble Imperial England with the sweatshops and the projection of military power where ever the Captains of Industry demand the resources?
Or will it collapse into something more resembling Inquisition era Spain?

Surely not the former. Britain had the manufacturing capacity and technical infrastructure to dominate global trade as well as the military power to open markets with internal colonialism providing cheap labor. China will be Imperial England. We were Imperial England from about 1890-1970.

I think Spain is a good bet, but my money is something more akin to Franco’s Spain than the Hapsburgs.

I’d be willing to bet you on that one, Captain B. I think one should never underestimate the perfidiousness and preemptive capitulation of the Vichy Dems, but however lukewarm I may be about Obama’s politics, he runs a damned good campaign apparatus.

Felagund—used to run.  Now he’s hired the morons he beat.

@#9;

Oh, I don’t know.  According to the Barb Wire timeline, we’re only about 7 years away from the next civil war, so we’ll probably be on the run from Congressionals next year.  That’ll be fun for Pamela Anderson fans, but not so much for everyone else.

(repeating myself from elsewhere)

I’m just not really convinced most voters pay enough attention to hand out blame to those who deserve it the most.

It’s more than that - the voters are of course fucking stupid. But they also will “rationally” blame the people in charge when things are really bad, even if the bad stuff is objectively the fault of the people the current bosses replaced. This is especially true if:

A) the current bosses continue a lot of the same policies as the people the voters elected them to replace (this pisses off the supporters of the current boss and depresses turnout for your side).

B) things continue to be awful or get worse.

C) the current bosses do absolutely nothing at all to distinguish themselves from the bad guys until 18 months after taking power, all the while they allowed the bad guys to completely trash them without fight nor punishment

Mainly, if the republicans take both houses of congress, it won’t matter if they fuck the country up, because Obama will still be in charge - hell, he’ll probably pledge to “respect the will of the people” and start supporting whatever crazy bullshit the Republicans demand in the interest of being Bipartisan. And since he’s the one in charge, (People still consider the President to be The President), the republicans will have a field day blaming him for refusing to work with the majority the American People elected. Which means that as the country continues its slide into third world status, Obama will be blamed.

But then what do I know. I probably need a drug test because I’m “fucking retarded”. Also, “fuck the UAW”. I’m sure Obama’s policy of forcing his base to eat a constant shit buffet, bending over backwards to continue Bush-era policies enthusiastically, making every effort to compromise the democratic agenda to the point of uselessness in pursuit of Bipartisanship, outright breaking promises, and basically letting right wing democrats set the agenda, will do more for helping the democrats keep their majorities than I’m giving him credit for.

talking tangerine Boehner

Congratulations!  Please be advised that your new, shiny Internet will be arriving in 2-5 business days.

Okay, I know like half the comments are going to be about the misspelling.  It’s fixed.

Conservatives have and always will always pretend to be the victims even when in power.  Of course liberals do the same, but there’s a difference, liberals are the victims.  A lot of dictatorships do this as well, like the Nazis.  Even though the Nazis had all the power, they still claimed the Jews were out to get them even though they were already a persecuted minority.  Conservatives in the US demonize certain groups as well they think that are out to get them like gays, unions, environmentalists, feminists, atheists, teachers, minorities, Muslims, etc.

Okay, I know like half the comments are going to be about the misspelling.  It’s fixed.
Comment #27: Amanda Marcotte

I’d like to think we are better than that.

And let’s face it, it’s more important to know where you can get the correct football gear and feathers to wear in your muscle car / dune buggy, as we cruise the wastelands of a permenant Republican majority U.S.

Read Heinlein’s “If This Goes On-” where:

”...The story is set in a future theocratic American society, ruled by the latest in a series of “Prophets.” The First Prophet was Nehemiah Scudder, a backwoods preacher turned President (elected in 2012), then dictator (no elections were held in 2016 or later)....”

A bit presentient?

felagund @ 22: 

But it’s not Obama’s apparatus this time around.  It’s 200-odd individual campaigns where the candidates are in various stages of running away from Obama.  It’s also an environment in which the opposition is considerably more motivated than Obama’s base. 

It’s a bet that I would be overjoyed to lose.  Sadly, however, I don’t think I will.

#9: I think Failed State America would be rather unique. I have this weird image of “Squatter Suburbs”, where the homeless and unemployed have taken over foreclosed communities, driving those with jobs into the more exclusive gated communities, and reclaim urban enclaves.

Don’t forget that whatever the de jure laws, it will be de facto legal for the rich or their bodyguards to shoot the poor if they feel “threatened”.

Three factors for the Failed States of America:

i, Overt religiousity at the top.  Maybe even Jebus-loyalty tests for full citizenship rights.

ii, War.  War war warity war.  Stop complaining about the economy and support our troops, you islamofascistssocialist!

iii, Parts of the US will quietly be left to rot.  A dozen or a score of post-Katrinas.

cynickal @#9: just google “Nehemiah Scudder”

Dang, kwillow@#30 beat me to it…. now cue the Heinlein haters…....

(although: shame on you kwillow: it’s ‘prescient’. Haters gonna go to town on ‘presentient’.)

The Orange Boehner is going to be the United States Speaker of the House in four months.

No matter how much I try to prepare myself for that virtual inevitability (let’s not kid ourselves anymore… the House is gone), I’m still going to throw up in my mouth a little when I watch President Obama delivering the 2011 State of the Union Address with that smarmy orange-skinned dickhead sitting next to Vice President Biden in the background.

Three factors for the Failed States of America:
i, Overt religiousity at the top.  Maybe even Jebus-loyalty tests for full citizenship rights.
ii, War.  War war warity war.  Stop complaining about the economy and support our troops, you islamofascistssocialist!
iii, Parts of the US will quietly be left to rot

So… not much different then today then?

Linnaeus: It wasn’t just ancien regime France. Tax farming, i.e. privatized tax collecting, used to be the norm for many governments through out human history. It was ended because it was really inefficient and corrupt.

I think both Cap’n B and Murrow Fan are still wrong. Why? 1) everyone who’s going to vote Republican has already stated their intention to do so, and 2) Democrats are slack and won’t get off the couch to go vote unless and until they’re threatened and/or inspired. Plus, 3) Obama is going to go nuts threatening lazy Dems with what a douche Boner will be, which 4) happens to be obviously true, and 5) it’s easy to make the case that Republican policies are what drove us into the ditch in the first place. Not only that, but 6) everyone fucking hates George Bush and 7) the OFA organization does have the capacity to get the Dem vote off the couch.

It’s going to be a hard slog, and a lot of us, myself included, are going to have to hold our noses and vote for a party whose only recommendation is that it’s the lesser of two evils, and a lot of seats will be lost—but they’ll mostly be Blue Dogs and good riddance—but I think that right now, you’re seeing the peak Republican score as far as percentage of the vote goes. They aren’t going to convince a significant number of undecided voters; the question remains how many of those can be got off the couch.

Ancien régime France practiced a kind of outsourced tax collection called the ferme générale and it ran into a few problems around 1789 or so

Lavoisier got what he deserved, the god damn tax farmer
We need our own Saint-Just or Desmoulins.

“Tax farming, i.e. privatized tax collecting, used to be the norm for many governments through out human history. It was ended because it was really inefficient and corrupt.”

...so, a perfect fit for our modern Republican/Libertarian times, right?  I bet Halliburton has a tax-collection division all ready to go…

It’s more than that - the voters are of course fucking stupid. But they also will “rationally” blame the people in charge when things are really bad, even if the bad stuff is objectively the fault of the people the current bosses replaced.

Why people think that we can turn this ship around after less than two years is a complete mystery to me.  Or it would be if the Dems weren’t so meek about mentioning all the things they did get accomplished in spite of the Republicans.  The Rs shout lies from every rooftop; why can’t the Ds shout the truth?  Afraid someone’s going to frown at them?  The Rs take advantage of the national short attention span; why don’t the Ds?

/rhetorical question

Let’s remember that the GOP was perfectly happy to run as “outsiders” and to complain about the vast power wielded by dirty fscking hippies when the controlled the white house and both chambers of congress. They will have no trouble at all staying in victim mode.

Talking point One: the economy would be doing fine if the democratic congress hadn’t caused a crash in 2008 and then done all that deficit spending.

Bobby, based on your assumptions about men and women, this commercial would be the equivalent of a woman telling her husband/father/whatever authority figure that she will not be forced to get a practical job and earn some money rather than follow her dreams and make no money. This is men feeling put upon because women want them to be all thin and pretty. The commercial is protesting a situation that has been scientifically proven by evolution and science to never ever exist.

shit, wrong thread. sorry

“Some things truly are better done by the government.”

...which is unmistakable proof you’re some kind of Unserious and Incredibly Dangerous LiberoIslamicCommunoFascist Dirty Hippie…

Ancien régime France practiced a kind of outsourced tax collection called the ferme générale and it ran into a few problems around 1789 or so.

I wonder if the French nobility, a few years before 1789, were also arrogantly bragging about how the fact that they have the will to power enables them to create their own reality.

“I wonder if the French nobility, a few years before 1789, were also arrogantly bragging about how the fact that they have the will to power enables them to create their own reality.”

L’Etat, C’Est Moi!

S’ils n’ont plus de pain, qu’ils mangent de la brioche…

(Yes, I’ve heard that both of these are either apocryphal or mis-attributed.  But they’re still fun.  And since I don’t speak French - but you do, BlackBloc - I copied and pasted those “quotes”, so all apologies if the punctuation/spelling/usage is wrong…)

For the record, I don’t think that there’s any significant chance that the Republicans will retake the House. I think the polls miss both Obama’s GOTV operation and the laser-like focus the Democrats will have on scaring the bejesus out of everyone with Boehner’s orange pumpkin face. The laser-like focus they totally lacked on actually helping America.

A few points…

Obama’s vaunted GOTV operation has been practically invisible this year.  I get all of the OFA emails, but I probably read maybe 1 out of 10 of them.  This isn’t 2008, not even a little bit.  Whatever was going on back then that had everybody really enthusiastic about voting isn’t present in 2010.  At least not for Democratic voters.

The second point is… since when have Democrats had success by pitching themselves as the lesser of two evils?  Sure, lots of Democrats knew objectively that John Kerry couldn’t possibly have been as lousy of a president as Bush had been, but I don’t recall there being a groundswell of voters marching to the polls thinking, “Boy that John Kerry sure sucks, but at least sucks less than Bush!”

To take over the House, the Republicans only need to pick up 20 seats… they currently have 198, and 218 seats crosses the majority threshold.  The polls have been horrible this year, and one recent poll showed that the Democrats have even worse approval ratings today, in September 2010, then they had 16 years ago, in September 1994.  We all know what happened that November, and it wasn’t pretty.

Nate Silver, whose poll analysis blog has a shiny new look at its new home on the New York Times website, is the go-to guy for deciphering the cumulative poll data to show where election races really stand.  He’s not very optimistic about the Democrats retaining the House, and while he still favors the Democrats to retain the Senate, he’s now giving the GOP 1 in 4 odds of taking that chamber over in addition to the House.  When Silver says the Democrats are in trouble, I believe that the Democrats really are in trouble.

Just looking at the Senate, there are three Democratic U.S. Senate seats that are going to be picked up: Delaware, North Dakota, and Arkansas.  Absolutely no one believes the Democrats can keep those seats.  Pennsylvania is looking bad… Joe Sestak ran a great primary against Arlen Specter, but now he seems to have fallen off the map.  The best hope for Florida is a Charlie Crist victory, because Kendrick Meek, the Democrat, doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell… he’s trailing by 20+ points.  I’m afraid my state is going to send Rep. Roy Blunt, a Tom Delay lackey, to the U.S. Senate over Robin Carnahan, whose brother Russ is my Congressman.  Illinois is shaky, Colorado is shaky, Ohio is shaky.

There’s just not much good news out there.  I think the best case scenario is probably the GOP winding up with 220 House seats for a 5 vote majority, and the Democrats retaining 54 U.S. Senate seats.  And I think that’s the very best outcome that can be reasonably expected at this point.  Unless I see the polls move in the opposite direction as we get closer to Election Day, I don’t see much reason to be hopeful about what we’re looking at right now.

Our unemployment rate is still nearly 10%, and that’s just the U3 stat… the U6 stat probably is around 20%.  Anytime unemployment is that high heading into an election, the party in power takes a big hit.  You and I know that giving the Republicans even more control would be disasterous, but most low information voters don’t think like that.  Economy is crappy?  Vote the bums out.  And the “bums” are whichever party has control.  Voter anger in tough times always gets focused on the team that has more control, no matter how wrongheaded that thinking might be.  We knew when Obama took office in January 2009 that the clock would be ticking, and something had to be done to turn things around.  And while I think Obama deserves a ton of credit for preventing things from becoming even worse than they are, the fact is, most people are not much better off today than they were 2 years ago; as a matter of fact, quite a few people are even worse off today than they were two years ago.

“It’s the economy, stupid”... that’s the mantra that has predicted the outcome of nearly every election in my lifetime.  I don’t see that trend changing in the next two months.

“Tax farming, i.e. privatized tax collecting, used to be the norm for many governments through out human history. It was ended because it was really inefficient and corrupt.”

The most famous tax farmer, of course, is St. Matthew.  Christ dined with tax farmers and prostitutes, and was criticized for it by the Pharisees.  Nevertheless, one must not conclude from this that Christ approved of tax farming, any more than he approved of prostitution.

”the historical treatment of Lavoisier’s role in the French tax farm tends toward the view that he was not corrupt or abusive”

Tax farmers are corrupt and abusive just by being tax farmers

My main objection with the 200 years of historians (and many of his contemporaries) trying to rehabilitate Lavoisier is the “Egalite” in “Liberte, egalite, and fraternite”

When the judge told him that “the Republic has no need of scientists” he wasn’t defending anti-intellectualism. He was saying that no one is above the law, even the cream of the scientific community line up to say how important you are citoyen, you are still not too important to face the same punishment that any other person would get.

We would be a better country if we were the type of country where Scooter Libby (or for that matter, if George Bush) would hear that from a judge

The Republicans haven’t been the ‘loyal opposition’, corwin, did you miss the part where a Republican Congressman declared that Health Care would be Obama’s “Waterloo”, or are you going to engage in High Broderism here?