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Next entry: Jesus Was Born In A Desert Previous entry: Star Trek, Star Wars And The Corner: Abandon Sex All Ye Who Enter Here

Why I don’t think this “split” will amount to much by Valentine’s Day

I suspect the main reason Republicans continued to use obstructionist tactics to stall the vote, even after it was a done deal, was that they were hoping that forcing Robert Byrd to come to the Senate every day to suffer through procedural shit in ill health would result in him being too sick to vote, or worse, dead.  They failed; this morning, Byrd voted for the health care bill and touchingly dedicated his vote to Ted Kennedy.  But I think that the Republicans also realized that delaying tactics bought them time to increase the acrimony on the left.  Every day this dragged out, the more rooted the narrative about the Crazy Left vs. the Reasonable Liberals took hold—-the same narrative that was established during the Iraq War run-up.  The problem with that is that it’s dangerous—-pre-existing roles to snap into discourage people from looking at the facts and making their decisions that way.  And every day that this process drags out, the more entrenched the “sides” get, and the more they look to the unique times when their “side” was right—-kill the bill people are claiming the left and taking moral authority from debacles like Iraq and NAFTA, people who say that the Senate bill is far from great but needs to be passed are referencing Ralph Nader, who is making this all worse by running around doing kill the bill stuff using racist language.

This entrenchment has resulted in nothing but digestion problems.  Jonathan Chait is crowing triumphantly to see The Left get egg on their face by being wrong on this issue.  But it’s really not that simple.  Many of us with pretty radical politics on the whole are not engaged in this “kill the bill” rhetoric.  I’ve been a little cowardly and not posting too much on the actual Senate bill because I don’t want to deal with the “kill the bill” crowd—-or worse, people starting to talk third parties and other such nonsense—-but I have been tweeting in support of getting through this process with our wits about ourselves, including reminding people that, contrary to mainstream media insinuations to the contrary, the House does matter.  The continued dismissal of Nancy Pelosi’s power has left me really uneasy, because I detect more than a whiff of unintentional sexism to it, though part of the reason that people overlook Pelosi is that she’s a publicly unassuming person. That, and there’s also the way that the House is treated like the rabble compared to the Senate.  Anyway, the point is that I’m The Left—-I hate corporate sellouts, I think the war in Afghanistan is a bad idea, I’ve got big time socialist leanings—-and I’m far more into the “eh, we’re not going to get anything better by killing it, and killing it would be criminally negligent, so let’s calm down” camp.

The reason is that I read arguments like this or this or this and think that they make their case, full stop.  One of our bloggers at Pandagon—-Auguste—-has written before about how he pays 19% of his income to an insurance company, and so the anger that you may have to pay 8% of your income to an insurance company rings a little hollow to me as a complaint.  That would be a massive cost savings to Auguste, should he be able to benefit.  (Right now, this is mostly aimed at the uninsured, so people who are going through employers have a different shakeout.)  I agree with the defenders that we have to work with the Senate we have, and not the Senate we want.  I also agree that it’s premature to blame “The Democrats” for this, which unfairly punishes the majority of Democrats who were pushing for a way more progressive bill but were stymied by conservatives.  Howard Dean is playing gadfly on this, but I have to point out that he was a cheerleader for increasing the rolls of Democratic politicians by recruiting conservatives.  Well, conservatives are going to be conservative.

If we want better legislation, we need better politicians.  And if you think health care is a daunting task, then fighting for better politicians is going to defeat your patience at every turn.  The netroots has only been around for like 6 or 7 years, and only really been a player for 4.  Taking over a party takes longer than that, and that’s all there is to it.  I think there’s a tendency to fight for scorched earth tactics designed to get a lot of results in a very short period of time, and a defeatism when that doesn’t work.  I’ll admit that impetus baffles me, because a lot of us are into politics because we love the game, and so we should have the disposition for a long term fight.  And by “long term”, I mean taking a truly radical stance, which is that political means alone will not get us where we need to go, but that we have to change society itself.  We shouldn’t despair of this task; we have had remarkable achievements in a short period of time, which is why Obama got to be President in the first place.  But we need to understand that there will never be a time to rest on our laurels, and therefore it’s not some sort of betrayal of our deeply held beliefs to allow that “better than nothing” is better than nothing.

That said, I think that the tendency of defenders of the Senate bill has been to scold instead of understand, and that’s also worrisome.  The links I provided do try to rein it in, arguing on points and not resorting to the DFH intimations, and that’s because Ezra and Sir Charles certainly count themselves in the DFH fold, as people who think that there’s a moral argument for social welfare and that the DFHs were 100% right on Iraq.  But unfortunately, as I noted above, some people are absolutely ecstatic at an opportunity to take a giant piss all over the DFHs, even though a lot of us are far from being “kill the bill” sorts.  (But I’d say that we may even be scarier DFHs to the cluck-clucking “moderate” crowd, because we’re not happy with how conservative the U.S. in general is, and are looking for massive social change to get our way.)  This is only going to entrench the anger of people who want to kill the bill, and make them more suspicious of the motivations of those of us who are generally on their side, but think killing the bill is a bad idea.


I was overly optimistic that the cynicism of many on the left wouldn’t just start blaming Obama to the degree that they’d start making Naderite noises about giving the country back to Republicans as punishment.  That sort of thinking scares me.  But I want to take a moment to defend liberal cynicism from those who are getting really angry right now.  Cynicism is an emotional strategy to protect you from heartbreak.  There’s a long historical debate about how effective it is, and I can’t say either way on that front, but I think the urge to be cynical is one that is so strong in the human spirit that it should be respected.  Cynicism also has a valuable role to play.  Cynics are more willing than others to call out their allies, and keep them honest.  There was an appalling lack of cynicism in the 90s that gave Clinton a lot of room to do neoliberal corporate protectionist stuff that hurt people, like passing NAFTA.  If it weren’t for cynicism, many on the left would have no energy to offer a counterbalance to the sea of lobbyist money that pulls Democrats to the right, and history shows this.  And cynicism has played a role in this debate.  I’m sure peace-making Democrats like Harry Reid would have bargained away everything but a mandate if there wasn’t a non-stop pressure campaign from the left, and many of the folks involved have to draw their energy from cynicism.  That’s just all there is to it.

And they aren’t wrong to be suspicious.
It’s absolutely true that the Democrats have made protecting insurance profits a priority throughout this process, and that goes a long way to explaining why they often seem surprisingly indifferent to basic concerns about how the voters will see this.  And at the base of all this is the fundamental fucked-up-ness of making health care provision a capitalist enterprise that puts profits before people.  The reason is that every capitalist interaction between a consumer and a corporation is inherently adversarial. We are both trying to maximize our resources from an interaction, and there’s only so much money to go around. From that, it’s reasonable to conclude that anything that’s going to make the insurance companies a lot of money is going to do so by taking something from the people.  So, the knee-jerk hostility to corporate profits is far from childish; it’s a lot more reasonable than “reasonable” moderates suggesting that there’s a way to create a capitalist market that doesn’t trend towards picking people’s pockets, at least without heavy regulation that basically forces companies to limit how far they’re willing to go. 

The lack of controls in the bill suggests that insurance companies have figured out how to game the system.  The problem is that none of us know yet if that’s true or not, because it’s really hard to see how that would work.  But it seems impossible to the cynic that they haven’t figured it out, because if insurance companies really did lose this battle, then how is it that their stocks are rising?  Marcy Wheeler’s piece is getting a lot of guff because it’s poorly reasoned, but what she’s doing is more of what defenders need to be doing, which is looking for the ways that insurance companies gamed this bill so that they can pick our pockets.  Because it is 100% true that they tried, and it’s 100% true that Democrats took their attempts seriously and many gave insurance company concerns more air time than public concerns about affordable health care.  We ignore these facts at our own risk.

This is why there is so much acrimony right now: we are in a space of waiting and uncertainty.  And until this thing is final, we’re not going to really know what’s next.  We can guess, but that’s ultimately what we’re doing.  The problem is that everyone who is at odds with each other is working with correct information.  People who support the bill have evidence that it’s going to save people a lot of money.  But people who see this as an insurance company giveaway at the expense of the people are correct that this is what the insurance companies want and have fought for—-and that insurance companies have legions of bean counters who would totally be able to write legislation that favors their profits-through-pick-pocketing strategy without looking like that is what it will do.  Everyone has a real point, and things have only gotten bad in the past few days because we’ve had nothing to do but stew and get more and more entrenched.

But now the bill has passed and things will be moving forward.  And instead of spinning our wheels with “the scorched earth vs. reasonable people narrative”—-a false narrative that makes everyone look bad—-we can move back towards pressuring Congress to reconcile this bill into the most progressive one possible.  And now it’s inevitable that a bill will pass, and everyone will start shifting, starting today, into wait and see mode.  And while that might seem like it amps up the uncertainty principle, it actually doesn’t, because one thing is certain, which is that once it passes, it’s out of our hands.  And our certainty in that will calm everyone down, and we’ll be able to move on.  And I think that there’s enough respect to go around that everyone will be able to put this week behind us, even though Republicans did their best to draw it out.

 

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Posted by Amanda Marcotte on 11:41 AM • (158) Comments

I’ll add that I think the “kill the bill” sentiment arose because people on the left see how “kill the bill” tactics are working for people on the right, and they want that kind of power.  What they fail to understand is that “kill the bill” is not a tactic for the right; it’s the ultimate goal.

Comment #1: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  11:56 AM

or worse, people starting to talk third parties and other such nonsense

Excuse me, why the hell is that “nonsense”?

As far as I’m concerned, the two-party system plays a huge role in screwing up this country.

Comment #2: Nobody in Particular  on  12/24  at  12:02 PM

Agreed.  And again, the tendency on the left is to look for easy, lazy solutions like simply starting a third party so that you can punish the Democrats by giving elections to Republicans without actually voting for Republicans and being an official bad guy.  Lazy, short-sighted, scorched earth.  If you really want there to be room for third parties, start a non-profit group dedicated to rewriting the Constitution so that a multi-party system is feasible, and realize that you have at least 30-40 years of hard work to even make that a possibility.  Anything short of that is child’s play.

Comment #3: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  12:05 PM

You remind me of the only reason I might be induced into voting again:  to piss off Republicans.

Meanwhile, I look at what the Democrats have done with health care reform and all I see are a bunch of self-congratulating jerks who are wholly owned by the insurance and other industries tryign their hardest to put lipstick on this pig of a health care bill.

Comment #4: DBK  on  12/24  at  12:09 PM

Okay, then. I think that’s unfair to the people who struck out for real change, who are the majority in the party but who are constrained by a straight up numbers game.  But if you want better politicians, you need to start thinking seriously about what that would take.  I have an idea, but boy oh boy is it going to be a lot of work that will take a long ass time.

Comment #5: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  12:11 PM

I ardently agree that society needs to change if our corporate-driven political process is going to change, but I haven’t a clue how to accomplish that. This isn’t the 60s, and looking around, I just don’t see a counterculture ready to rise up and stir things up.

Comment #6: Triplanetary  on  12/24  at  12:16 PM

The bottom line is this: we’re getting HillaryCare. This is almost identical to the Clinton bill from the ‘90s.

If this were ten years ago, we’d be dancing in the streets over getting that passed.

And fuck FDL. Jane Hamsher going on Fox & Freinds of all places and collaborating with Grover “drown government in a bathtub” Norquist tells you all you need to know about her.

Comment #7: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  12:16 PM

Oh, and the wingnuts are pissing their pants. THEY certainly know this bill will be improved on in the future and that it’s a big defeat for Reaganite ideology to have the principle of universal health care established, even if it’s through private insurance:

What that means is that there will be no way to go back to a pre-national health care system, because all these transformed institutions will create an inertia for a national health care approach that will make impossible attempts to go back. In other words, as with most of the New Deal or Great Society programs like Medicare, once we have substantial numbers of voters and institutions dependent upon Federal largess and regulation, the relationship becomes mutually parasitic and inseparable.

That is, all the institutions that resisted the Federalization efforts – and that could only be overcome by corruption and co-option and self-delusion – will now line up to protect the new status quo.

Instead, just as we’ve seen with Social Security and Medicare (even among many “conservative” Republicans), the debate no longer is around whether or not these institutions will continue (remember the radioactive response to efforts to privatize part of the Social Security program) – rather, when problems arise, the debate centers around how to reform or improve the system. That is, when the multitude of problems and failings of current legislation become evident, the debate will be to figure out some (probably incremental) fix the system rather than scrap it – especially since these flaws will come up piecemeal and there will be woefully insufficient force to undo a national system. This is even more certain to happen given the clever timeline for implementation of the bill’s provisions.

Comment #8: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  12:21 PM

The bill is not a sure thing just yet, so don’t get too complacent.

Comment #9: Alkaloid  on  12/24  at  12:31 PM

After the Bush years I can’t imagine anyone voting for a third partyy guy like Nader and giving control of the U.S to someone like Sarah Palin, or worse yet someone like Romney who can almost sound sane, or Mike Huckabee with his running mate Chuck Norris.

Comment #10: John Rove  on  12/24  at  12:32 PM

And really, if you have any doubt that this bill makes wingnuts shit their pants, read the comments here:

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/national/national_govtpolitics/article/senate_passes_health_care_bill/313409/

One said it’s the “worst thing to happen to America since the Great Tyrant FDR passed Social Security”.

If nothing else it’s beautiful to watch these fucks freak out.

Comment #11: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  12:34 PM

You know, at times I’m grateful for wingnuts like Alk, because their viciousness reminds us that there’s a real enemy out there.

Comment #12: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  12:39 PM

I really have no idea what to do about the situation the country finds itself in- in which every attempt to address our serious problems is immediately perverted into a naked giveaway to the very corporations and other powerful interests that played major roles in causing the problem in the first place. I do know that we can’t go on like this indefinitely. If we don’t find a way out we’re headed for a crash that will make the current recession seem like a walk in the park.

Comment #13: Steve LaBonne  on  12/24  at  12:44 PM

I agree that a third party option isn’t realistic and could cause real damage.  However, votes have consequences.  I won’t be contributing to Organizing for America or the Democratic Party or the Congressional Committees.  They’ll wind up supporting the Conservadems who are fighting what I want to see happen in this country.  Campaign contributions to progressives like my Rep, Lloyd Doggett, or to Act Blue and FDL seem a reasonable response.  I also think we should encourage primaries against the Conservadems and, if we lose those, encourage progressives to sit out the election.

Comment #14: DrJ  on  12/24  at  12:45 PM

1)  We’re not getting HillaryCare.  Just had to say that off the top of the head. 

2)  The material issue in the whole health care debate has been the spiralling *cost* of health care.  The doctors, hospitals, drugs, and equipment.  The insurance companies are evil, but this is because they are obsolete for the sociopolitical purposes of health care politics in the US.  They are evil also because there are no actuarial means to control risks such that reasonable premiums will allow money to be made from stock or bond markets.  They aren’t the enemies in this discussion no matter how much we’d like them to be instead of the friendlier faces that we’d like to trust.

3)  The notion that cynicism has its purpose in context strikes me in much the same way that the idea that greed has its purpose in, say, making capitalism work.  Greed is a deadly sin (outside of the context of religion) because without the capacity to be sated, you (and the system you reside in) are going to be screwed eventually.  Cynicism, in the purest meaning of the term, represents a toxic negativity that decreases the amount of trust people put into each other and into institutions.  The aristocratic elite might encourage cynicism as they would greed, because both are fundamental in the execution of divide-and-conquer politics.  One can be realistic without being cynical, one can aspire without being greedy, and one can feel that centrifugal security without being religious.

Comment #15: shah8  on  12/24  at  12:47 PM

I’ve been thinking about this as I’ve been fighting with people here and at Balloon-Juice, and I really do think that a lot of the acrimony is leftover bad feeling from the primary.  We had two candidates who were so close together in their policies that we were having knock-down, drag-out fights over things like a public option with mandates or a public option without mandates, and a lot of that was never resolved.  Blog friendships that broke up over Clinton vs. Obama have never quite recovered.  You have a lot of people waiting for Obama to fail so they can, like, totally prove that they were right and you were wrong (which is where the weird “people supporting the Senate bill are just like Iraq War supporters!” is coming from), which makes people defend him more than they actually want to, which starts a whole cycle of recrimination and anger and we end up fighting the primary all over again. 

And, no, I’m not saying, “Oh, you PUMAs wrecked everything.”  There’s more than enough blame to go around on both sides and there are plenty of Obama supporters who were total assholes during the primary who now have some apologizing to do to Clinton supporters because they contributed to this problem.

The candidates themselves seem to have resolved things quite amicably, but damned if I know what to do for the blogosphere.

Comment #16: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  12:48 PM

Campaign contributions to progressives like my Rep, Lloyd Doggett, or to Act Blue and FDL

Act Blue, yeah, but FDL just lost all credibility in this debate, sorry. Going on Fox and Friends and being propaganda for Steve Doocey, and partnering with Grover Norquist is inexcusable.

Comment #17: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  12:48 PM

hmmm, desire, not aspire, sorry.

Comment #18: shah8  on  12/24  at  12:49 PM

I thought about doing a “lessons learned” part of the post, but it was getting long enough.  But yes, one lesson is that we need to think very seriously about what it will take to increase progressive power in the party.  One thing I’ve learned is that we need way more women in Congress, because this Stupak-Pitts thing is largely due to Congress being a boys’ club.  Emily’s List is a useful PAC to give to, because they are very effective.

Comment #19: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  12:49 PM

1) We’re not getting HillaryCare.  Just had to say that off the top of the head.

Really? I’ve read both plans and they seem eerily similar. No public option, expansion of Medicaid and S-CHIP, a mandate, and subsidies done under the auspices of private insurers.

Comment #20: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  12:50 PM

Mnem, I’ve thought about this, but I haven’t seen anyone actually resort to arguing Clinton could have done a better job, because I know people can’t say that with a straight face.

Comment #21: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  12:51 PM

Okay, wait…

I was operating under the assumption that HillaryCare was the 1994 program, not 2008 campaign…

Comment #22: shah8  on  12/24  at  12:52 PM

Not that you’re wrong, Mnem—-I think you have a point.  But I’m sort of surprised that no one has pulled that card out, and it really shows how farcical the idea that this could have been a super progressive bill if things were slightly different is. Which is why I don’t think anyone is pulling that card.

Comment #23: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  12:52 PM

Sah8—-

I am talking about ‘90s HillaryCare. It’s still similar. There was no public option in that, either, and it kept private insurers intact, and relied on subsidies along with expanding existing programs.

Comment #24: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  12:55 PM

The way I see it, the internal debate among the left is generally a healthy thing (the wounds created will not last long enough to do significant damage, IMHO) because it was still fundamentally a discussion over actually doing something liberal.  All the Republicans could offer was obstruction.

Blaming the left end of the American left is pretty much standard practice in American politics and has been so for over a century.  Thing is, even the more centrist inclined tend to say that this is a step in the direction of something better, and that something is at its core a leftist idea.  It does suck that the Very Serious People will at every step say “sorry, that can’t be done” and then when it does get done say, “Oh yeah, we were for it all along!” but that’s how it goes.

Comment #25: Linnaeus  on  12/24  at  12:56 PM

But it seems impossible to the cynic that they haven’t figured it out, because if insurance companies really did lose this battle, then how is it that their stocks are rising?

My question in response to this question is, since when have the stock markets been rational?  It’s not like the health insurance companies get to set their own stock prices, and the stock markets believe all kinds of weird-ass things, like that massive layoffs at a company are always good because they’re “tightening their belts” but being a highly profitable company with a lot of cash on hand (like Apple) is bad because shut up, that’s why.

Investors are relieved that health insurance companies are not being nationalized like the wingnuts have been claiming they would be, so stocks went up.  Since the stocks were already pretty low, they’re really just back up to where they were before the whole debate began.  Seriously, reading the entrails of a chicken would probably give you just as good a notion about how health insurance companies are going to do as following the stock market will.

Comment #26: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  12:56 PM

Mnem, I’ve thought about this, but I haven’t seen anyone actually resort to arguing Clinton could have done a better job, because I know people can’t say that with a straight face.

It’s more that there are still a lot of hurt feelings that people are having a hard time acknowledging, so they channel them into criticism or defensiveness that goes over the top.  And, to make it worse, a lot of the people with hurt feelings are guys, and God forbid that even a progressive guy say that he’s upset because people were assholes last year and he misses his friends.  Better to channel that hurt into anger and lash out at people by either violently attacking or violently defending the administration’s policies.

I mean, I’m not the only one who realized after a few rounds that she was reacting that way, right?

Comment #27: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  01:02 PM

I have not read the bill from 1994, but my memory and some mild internet browsing sez that the two plans are pretty different in emphasis.  Not to mention that the 1994 plan was proposing some fairly radical changes in the insurance industry (while this one is adding structure in exchanges, adding regs,  and a hotpot of cost-saving initiative) and would have been truly universal.  In some ways (tho’ I did not like the plan) it was just a little too advanced for its time.  We’ll have rule by HMO soon enough.

Comment #28: shah8  on  12/24  at  01:05 PM

The damnable shame of it is, the left already punished the Democratic Party with defeat in a presidential election once within the last decade, George W. Bush was elected and really screwed things up, and the Democrats DID NOT LEARN the lesson.

I voted (ineffectually) for Nader in 2000 and I wouldn’t do it again, because, yeah, Bush was a lot worse than he even seemed and a third term of welfare reform, corporation fluffing and triangulation would have been a whole hell of a lot better. (And Gore’s performance since losing the election suggests he might have been a much better president than Clinton) All obvious. But we’d be a lot better off in this country if the Democrats feared the left as much as they fear the center. (And there may be more votes in the center, but Democrats can’t win without at least acceptance from the Left)

But too many would rather lose an election because the DFH’s didn’t turn out than because the insurance companies donated more to the Republican. Maybe they make the correct calculation re: keeping their jobs, but the mandate concept especially seems like something from people who can only politically hear the registers insurance execs speak in and not those voters do.

I’ll say this for the DFHs, though. If they punish the Democrats by staying home or voting for whatever Greens are still around, they’ll at least be more sensible than the greater number of Americans who’ll punish the Democrats’ foolishness on health care by voting Republican.

Comment #29: witless chum  on  12/24  at  01:14 PM

The reason there is a two party system in America is because of Duverger’s Law. The only way to fix that is to change our congressional districts to proportional representation and to eliminate the electoral college. I’m for both. Let’s do it.

I think there’s real danger in Hamsher teaming up with Norquist to go after Emmanuel. I hate him like everyone else does, but it seems like a setup to a new Whitewater. The GOP will do anything in their power to impeach Obama if they get a majority again, and you know Lieberman would be thrilled to shiv us again.

I know we can’t march in lockstep on the left, and the bill sucks, and I know the Democrats now offer us nothing but “The Republicans are Worse”, but… dammit… the Republicans are worse. It’s not just the Right in America that has no long-term memory.

Comment #30: Seebach  on  12/24  at  01:15 PM

The problem is that real voting people are very much concerned with things like the stock market and housing values. So doing potentially helpful things that may very well remove money from the financial/speculation sector, and put it to actual use, is something that is approached with a lot of caution by most/all politicians.

Which is why this has to be a giveaway to the insurance industry (which really is just an arm of the financial industry), and also why the banks had to be bailed out.

The further problem is that blogospheric progressives, actually sometimes use these same metrics as signs of economic success as well. So by and large, we’re really not THAT much different (a matter of degree, to be sure…)

Until this changes, until people accept a more frugal lifestyle, until people accept a flattening of the class plateaus (among all classes), quite frankly, none of this is likely to change. This is a cultural issue, not a political one.

Comment #31: Karmakin  on  12/24  at  01:16 PM

think there’s real danger in Hamsher teaming up with Norquist to go after Emmanuel. I hate him like everyone else does, but it seems like a setup to a new Whitewater.

It is, and she is either woefully stupid or a secret Republican plant.

Comment #32: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  01:19 PM

Heh, it’s been awhile since you’ve written something I disagree with so completely.

Let’s start with the assumption that this battle is between The Left and The Democrats.  The largest nursing group in the country stands against this bill.  Howard Dean is the head of the freaking party and HE stands against this bill - and, oh yeah, he’s an MD.  Health professionals and the head of the DNC are hardly Naderites. 

Second, let’s dissect the “better than nothing” claim.  Every argument I’ve read from everyone supporting the bill rests that claim on 3 undefended assumptions: A) That insurance companies will act rationally, B) that there will be actual enforcement against them for breaking the rules, and C) That somehow we’ll have *more* momentum to revisit all of this and somehow make it all more progressive down the road. 

I think C) is ludicrous on its face, so let’s hit A & B.  There are significant loopholes in this bill that will allow insurance companies to drop people willy nilly.  They still can drop people for “intentional misrepresentation,” which is how they drop most people right now.  The only people who decide if you didn’t tell the whole truth intentionally?  Insurance companies.  Possibly even more damaging, the nursing union (NNU) points out that insurance companies will be able to set up in one state and sell to the other 49, meaning that if they find a state who’s lax on enforcement (sayyyy, Mississippi or South Carolina), they can set up there, do whatever they want, and suffer little to no consequence.  Add in their ability to charge more to people who fail “wellness tests” (designed by them!), and it’s unclear who or how many people who need insurance will actually be paying less for it.  Add in the fact that insurance companies will now be making even more money and be basically pseudo government agencies funded by massive federal programs, that reproductive rights will be devastated, AND that there’s no cost control at all, and I think you can argue that this is actually worse.  Everyone has to pay into a broken system that may not actually cover that many more people or keep costs down for people who need it and has enforcement loopholes you could drive an insurance company through.

#3 - Downplaying Nancy Pelosi’s power isn’t sexist, it’s a reflection of the power of the Senate.  The conference bill will have to get through another filibuster blockade in the Senate before it can be voted on, meaning you have to appease Nelson and Lieberman in the final bill or else you get nada.  So what they want matters more than what she wants, because they hold the cards.  It sucks, its unfair, but it’s true.  So I am not holding my breath for any improvements on repro rights or coverage.  You shouldn’t either.

#4 - People who are talking about third parties and hating on Obama aren’t just doing it because of health care.  They’re doing it because of the entire disappointment of his administration.  I am not saying the guy’s done no good at all, but certainly the degree of timidity on financial reform, health care, Guantanamo, the wars, and so on have left us without a single marquee progressive victory. I think a lot of people hoped that he was sacrificing on all the other fronts to use his political capital on health care, but once again he started from the middle and worked to the right, and I think it was more of a last straw.  I agree that a 3rd party will take 30+ years to get right, but I also feel increasingly like a person without a party. 

#5 - Speaking of the long term vs short term, you call the Kill the Bill crowd out for being short term thinkers, but I think that’s exactly the disease of the Pass the Bill crowd, too.  In particular, when you say that it’s wrong to threaten a return to Republican rule as a way to punish the Democrats, I often agree.  But that’s short term thinking.  It’s possible that if the base of the Democratic party abandons them for 4-8 years that we might go through short term hell, but it’s also possible that we come out 20 years from that with a (more) progressive Democratic party because they realize we CAN cut them off.  Everybody is working on short term thinking, and none of us have any idea how to get past the status quo, but that doesn’t make the status quo okay.

In summary, there is no split—this is not a bunch of Lefties or even cynics calling for a Burn the Bill rally.  These are nurses and the head of the DNC, along with tons of regular Americans, who believe that this might actually make things worse than the status quo.  And unless you believe in the insurance companies not exploiting every loophole they can, I think it’s foolish not to stand with them.

Comment #33: Marc  on  12/24  at  01:31 PM

Despite the fact that I put myself firmly in the Krugman/Ezra “get it passed” camp, I have defended Jane Hamsher as an advocate, playing an important role.  But over the past week or so, and this Norquist nonsense in particular, she’s driving me toward an ulcer. Thank you Amanda for saying exactly what I’ve been feeling.

Comment #34: jleaux  on  12/24  at  01:31 PM

Marc, Dean now supports passing the bill with the late changes Harry Reid made.

Comment #35: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  01:33 PM

Ben, that’s fine, but the core of the bill is the same as that which he opposed, and I think the nurses union is a much more significant and objective opinion.

Comment #36: Marc  on  12/24  at  01:36 PM

Yes well we will see where they stand when this comes out of conference.

Oh, and the thing about maybe if we abandon the Democratic Party and let the right wing rule for 20 years, then we’ll have REAL progressives in office? Yeah, the German left tried that in 1933. It didn’t work so well.

Comment #37: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  01:41 PM

Ben, my point was not that we should do that, only that to dismiss it outright because of the potential short term pain of Republican rule was hypocritical.  Invoking 1933 Germany is just inflammatory.

Comment #38: Marc  on  12/24  at  01:44 PM

And my point is there’s no such thing as “short term” pain from Republican rule. There’s quite a bit of long term pain. We’re going to be digging out from under the rubble the Shrub/Vader ticket left for us until at least 2016.

Comment #39: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  01:47 PM

Isn’t 15 years short term compared to, say the 30-50 years to change the constitution or create a 3rd party? 

The 3rd party business is entirely tangential to the larger points—that this isn’t a Lefties vs mainstream Dems battle and that this bill is only a potential improvement if you assume good will from the insurance industry.

Comment #40: Marc  on  12/24  at  01:53 PM

this bill is only a potential improvement if you assume good will from the insurance industry.

Oh on the contrary, I assume the insurance companies will do everything in their power to evade the provisions in the bill. But it’s still an improvement. Why? They’re going to be getting public money. This means increased scrutiny, and more outrage from the public when they commit abuses. And they’re going to get slapped down with further legislation.

Ask the bankers. They hate being under the public microscope so much, and it limits their ability to profiteer so much, that they’re paying back the TARP money early just to get out from under it!

Comment #41: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  01:57 PM

Yeah, the German left tried that in 1933. It didn’t work so well.

Well, I’m only being 90% flippant, but not entirely, when I point out that the NSDAP no longer exists but the SPD (along with more truly left-wing parties) certainly does. And the US will not be able to commit the crimes that came in between, not on an international scale at any rate. Hitler could defy the world because of Germany’s economic autarky, but the US can be brought to its knees whenever the Chinese decide to cut up our credit card.

Not, mind you, that I want to go anything like the 20-years-of-fascist-insanity route, but I see this “nach Hitler, uns” bit all over the place and it’s really not quite the knockdown argument that the people bandying it about it imagine.

Comment #42: Steve LaBonne  on  12/24  at  01:57 PM

Wait, so the idea of recision is still being left in the bill? I mean, basically the"dropping people who intentionally misrepresent their health” thing is recission. That’s awful! Is there any way that Obama could line-item snip that out??

Comment #43: t-ster  on  12/24  at  01:59 PM

Really, Ben?  You think the banks are acting more responsibly now after TARP?  That’s the argument FOR the bill?

I have seen no evidence of that.  I see unsafe trading going bonkers again already, I see bonuses out the wazoo, and I see massive profit spikes for Goldman Sachs and friends already.  Oh, and I see them with a total stranglehold on our political system.  THAT’S your model for improvement?  Trust me, the banks don’t care about bad press, they just care about money.  Insurance is the same game.

Comment #44: Marc  on  12/24  at  01:59 PM

Yeah, the German left tried that in 1933. It didn’t work so well.

In the March 1933 German election (the last one before the Nazis outlawed their opposition), the main left-wing party (the Social Democrats) were the only party in the Reichstag to vote against the Enabling Act that effectively gave Hitler dictatorial powers.  The Communists in the Reichstag would have opposed that too, but were under arrest due to being under suspicion for their role in the Reichstag fire.

The Nazis didn’t have a majority (in fact, they never did prior to November 1933), and got the Enabling Act passed with the support of two conservative parties, the German National People’s Party and the Centre Party.  So that’s what didn’t work out so well.

Comment #45: Linnaeus  on  12/24  at  02:01 PM

t-ster, yep - you can be dropped any time an insurance company claims you lied to them.

Comment #46: Marc  on  12/24  at  02:01 PM

Seteve—

I’d still rather go with the French model of the same time period, where the left stuck together against the Fascists and stopped them from taking power in the first place.

Comment #47: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  02:01 PM

I don’t think this fight mirrors the Clinton/Obama primary fight at all. I think a lot of the motivation on the “kill bill” side — at least, this is where I find it emotionally resonant — comes from the same place as the anger over the bailouts, which exists on the left as it does in the teabagger contingent — that is, oh look, here we are getting it in the neck again to preserve the careers of corporate executives. Any real attempt to disarm this sentiment is going to have to address 1) people not getting it in the neck and a bit less of 2) large corporations not being set for ever b/c of people getting it in the neck.

So far I’m a little bit mollified but the message the establishment Dems need to get on is “this bill is not going to screw you, and here how” and I sure hope they’re right.

Comment #48: brandon  on  12/24  at  02:01 PM

Trust me, the banks don’t care about bad press,

No, but politicians do. Which is why the bonuses of AIG were confiscated by the House of Representatives.

Comment #49: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  02:04 PM

The Nazis didn’t have a majority (in fact, they never did prior to November 1933), and got the Enabling Act passed with the support of two conservative parties, the German National People’s Party and the Centre Party.  So that’s what didn’t work out so well.

Thanks for pointing this out, as I should also have done. Kind of reminds one of the Republican enabling of the teabaggers, doesn’t it?

But for some people it’s so much easier to bash “the left” than to deal with the real threats…

Comment #50: Steve LaBonne  on  12/24  at  02:04 PM

Oh, and the pay of their executives being limited to $500,000/year as well instead of tens of millions of dollars. The banks HATE that.

Comment #51: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  02:06 PM

“From that, it’s reasonable to conclude that anything that’s going to make the insurance companies a lot of money is going to do so by taking something from the people. “

Of course, an argument like that could be expanded to any consensual transaction, not just healthcare.  Why should any corporation make “a lot of money” at the expense of their customers?  This tired line of thinking is what made the USSR the paradise that it became!
In all seriousness, though, that was a fundamental assumption underlying communism, so I’m not being too inflammatory.

Comment #52: anoNY  on  12/24  at  02:09 PM

How on Earth does any of that have to do with this bill, Ben?  Insurance execs will have no such limitations—in fact, they are only required to spend 70% of the money they receive on providing care.  The other 30% is to be treated as profit.  There’s hardly a pay cap there. 

And again, to suggest that Goldman Sachs is under the thumb of the government is sheer folly.  Be real. It’s entirely the other way ‘round and we all know it.

Comment #53: Marc  on  12/24  at  02:11 PM

How on Earth does any of that have to do with this bill, Ben?  Insurance execs will have no such limitations

They don’t NOW, but how do you think Reps. and Senators will react when they have attack ads running against them saying things like “Big Health Insurance Company XYZ denied me care when I got cancer, even though their CEO made big profits using public money! Senator Moneybags DID NOTHING!”

The American public yawns when a CEO makes an obscene profit using private money, but when public money is involved there’s an uproar if they won’t keep their end of the deal.

Comment #54: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  02:13 PM

Sorry, Ben.  We’ll just have to agree to disagree that the banking system is under control, that the government has authority over it, and that it’s a good (!) model for insurance reform.

Comment #55: Marc  on  12/24  at  02:16 PM

Not that it’s a good “model”, but that introducing public money changes the whole equation. And, in the long run, to the detriment of the insurance companies.

Comment #56: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  02:19 PM

In the long run we’re all dead. (Especially when our insurance company cancels our coverage.)

Comment #57: Steve LaBonne  on  12/24  at  02:20 PM

So far I’m a little bit mollified but the message the establishment Dems need to get on is “this bill is not going to screw you, and here how” and I sure hope they’re right.

Admittedly, I waffled quite a bit from day to day because I had to digest a new pro-or con-bill argument a few times a day over the past few weeks.  This statement, though, reflects my feeling on the bill right now.  I’m deeply suspicious of how the bill will actually work out, since I don’t trust the health insurance companies at all, but I knew that some kind of bill was going to pass.  Too many people in Congress and the president had too much invested in it to allow it to fail.

Comment #58: Linnaeus  on  12/24  at  02:23 PM

Basically, I’m not sure if the bill will help the people it needs to. But its clear to me that not passing it will ruin the democrats, and by extension, our prospects for getting other progressive measures passed. They dug themselves so far in that they have no choice but to finish it.  Failing to pass it will be political suicide for Dems. And if they’re ruined, the Republicans will pick up their seats.

So I’m hoping the bill passes, not so much because I think it will change my day-to-day experience of going to the doctor (I know it won’t), but because it needs to pass for other things I care about to get addressed.

Comment #59: t-ster  on  12/24  at  02:29 PM

Marc has said a lot in response to this post that I agree with. One other point would be that this idea that “Kill the Bill” = “Hand the Country Back to the Repubs” is a strawman.  I have been worried that this bill, as it stands, can be so easily used by the Reps to bash us (i.e. “The Gvt. is taking your money and not giving you healthcare” which, while not strictly true, is what this is going to look like to many people) that *passing* it could hand the next election over to the Reps.  Digby has been pointing this out.

Which is to say, I lean towards “kill the bill” in order to *salvage* Dem election prospects.

Comment #60: Clone6  on  12/24  at  02:30 PM

T-ster, looks like we’re opposite prognosticators.  Given that I think this will pass, I hope you’re right.

Comment #61: Clone6  on  12/24  at  02:32 PM

Auguste—-has written before about how he pays 19% of his income to an insurance company, and so the anger that you may have to pay 8% of your income to an insurance company rings a little hollow to me as a complaint.

 
Uh, sorry, but 8-percent of my lower-middle-class income isn’t just angry-making, it unaffordable.  The money just isn’t there and because we don’t have children, my husband and I are probably not going to get a subsidy or much of a subsidy. 

I’m sorry Auguste has to pay 19-percent of his income and I’m disgusted that I live in a country where anyone has to pay that much.

But that doesn’t make 8-percent any more affordable for folks like me.  And it certainly doesn’t make our anger less legitimate.

Comment #62: adobedragon  on  12/24  at  02:36 PM

Amanda, what the hell is “vicious” about reminding you that this isn’t a done deal? I don’t know why you think I’m a wingnut; how many wingnuts do you know who want single-payer?

Comment #63: Alkaloid  on  12/24  at  02:40 PM

The fact that they passed a flat-rate tax on health care is one of the great undiscussed conservative victories of this entire bill.  Sickening.  (Literally.)

Comment #64: Marc  on  12/24  at  02:41 PM

It’s possible that if the base of the Democratic party abandons them for 4-8 years that we might go through short term hell, but it’s also possible that we come out 20 years from that with a (more) progressive Democratic party because they realize we CAN cut them off.

Well, the liberal base deserted Clinton in 1994 and the Republicans took over Congress, so I guess we only have to wait until 2014 for liberal nirvana to arrive.  Unless, of course, the clock resets with the 2010 election, which means we have to wait until 2030 for liberal nirvana to arrive.  But if we count the abandonment from 2000, we only have to wait untili 2020!

Funny how people keep saying that the Democratic Party will be forced to listen to the left wing if we stay home, and yet it never seems to work no matter how many times we try it.  You’d think that we might have tried to come up with a new strategy by now since this one seems to be a total failure, but I guess that’s just too much trouble.

Comment #65: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  02:42 PM

The money just isn’t there and because we don’t have children, my husband and I are probably not going to get a subsidy or much of a subsidy.

So you and your husband combined make more than $58,280 a year (which is the level at which subsidies stop for a family of two) and you still can’t afford health insurance?  Man, that sucks.

Comment #66: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  02:45 PM

How on Earth does any of that have to do with this bill, Ben?  Insurance execs will have no such limitations—in fact, they are only required to spend 70% of the money they receive on providing care.

Actually, it’s 80 percent.

Comment #67: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  02:46 PM

anonY @52: No, that’s not a “communist” assumption. Before they devolved into a form of pseudo-fascists, it was a given even in libertarian/conservative arguments that the fundamental relationship between a corporation and the consumer was adversarial.  That’s the basic premise of supply and demand.  Their argument was that the free market system would, through the power of competition, benefit consumers by forcing corporations to minimize how much they could take from the transaction.  In reality, the modern conservative movement has largely worked to shield corporations from this kind of competition, which was of course what taking the public option out was all about.

Comment #68: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  02:46 PM

Sigh.  As I already said 2x, Mnemosyne, its not that I defend the no-vote punishment, just pointing out that arguing against it comes from a similar position of short term thinking.  Basically, none of us want to go backward to go forward, and as a result we’re all stuck slowly drifting to the right.

Comment #69: Marc  on  12/24  at  02:46 PM

Re #67 - My bad.  Still, though, 20% kept for the company?  That’s absurdly high.  I will try to dig up the doc, but I’ve read before it should cost no more than 4%-8% to administrate care.

Comment #70: Marc  on  12/24  at  02:50 PM

a lot of us are into politics because we love the game

Ooh, I don’t know about that. James Carville loves the game. Keith Olbermann loves the game. Paul Begala loves the game. Note that two of those people have been romantically linked with a pundit on the other side. As a Rangers fan who lives with a Flyers fan, I’m disturbed by someone looking at the running of the country the way I look at hockey.

I’m not sure that’s how you meant it, though

Nobody (2):

As far as I’m concerned, the two-party system plays a huge role in screwing up this country

Oh absolutely. But simply starting a third party without first convincing a whole bunch of people that the Big Two are doing a lousy job of really representing their interests is not going to change anything. Getting a third party to grow organically—generating the demand, persuading people that they want another option and then getting them to be that option—is the only way to make a viable third party. It’s more important than a headquarters in Washington and a catchy name with a logo to match. It’s more important than even a candidate.

Though as Seebach pointed out, that doesn’t really work. Most important is a way to convince people who are wavering that voting for your party isn’t wasting a vote or helping the oppositon. New York has fusion: the Working Families Party often nominates the Democratic candidate. I support approval voting, so if you’re worried about the DFH Party (or whatever) having a chance you can vote for the Democrat too.

Ben (37):

the thing about maybe if we abandon the Democratic Party and let the right wing rule for 20 years, then we’ll have REAL progressives in office? Yeah, the German left tried that in 1933. It didn’t work so well

Well, who was ruling Germany in 1953?

Comment #71: Hershele Ostropoler  on  12/24  at  02:53 PM

As I already said 2x, Mnemosyne, its not that I defend the no-vote punishment, just pointing out that arguing against it comes from a similar position of short term thinking.

How is it short-term thinking to say that what we need to do is to do what the wingnuts did and start getting our candidates elected to every office we can find, starting with the school boards and working our way up to Congress?  It took them 30 years—it will probably take us just as long.  But since most people would rather not vote than do that hard work, we’re going to keep losing because the other guys planned and executed their long-term strategy while we were standing around with our dicks in our hands debating whether or not we should vote at all.

Comment #72: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  02:54 PM

Well, who was ruling Germany in 1953?

Well, 1/4 of the country was given up to Stalinist police state.

The West was ruled by the Social Democrats but I think that could have been done without first handing the country over to Nazis.

Comment #73: Ben D.  on  12/24  at  02:55 PM

One other point would be that this idea that “Kill the Bill” = “Hand the Country Back to the Repubs” is a strawman.

I want it on the record that I never said that.  What is not a strawman is to argue that killing the bill means that this is the end of any attempt at health care reform until we go through another political generation.  The centrist Democrats are only doing this because they have to, and if they can say that it’s over, they’ll take the chance.  So the notion that we can kill the bill and start over is a broken premise.  We can, and should, shrilly lobby for the final bill to be as progressive as possible. 

What we need to do, basically, is get out of the habit of being conciliatory and “reasonable” at the outset, and then get increasingly shrill as things are coming to a close and we’ve already conceded way more than we should have.  You start shrill and then, when the bargaining process is over, you shove through what you got and throw a party.  “Kill the bill” is doing things backwards, and in the worst possible way.  What we needed to do was demand single payer, and roll back to a public option.  And we needed to be screaming in the summertime, and chilling out now.

Comment #74: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  02:59 PM

Uh, sorry, but 8-percent of my lower-middle-class income isn’t just angry-making, it unaffordable. 

Have you checked to see if you fall into the subsidy bracket?  People seem to forget there is one.

Comment #75: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  02:59 PM

Thus far, I don’t see anyone refuting the concerns about insurance companies basically being able to carry on as they do now thanks to all the loopholes for dropping people, upping coverage costs, and avoiding enforcement.  With the loss of reproductive coverage for millions and the total lack of cost control despite a requirement for us all to pay in (at basically a flat rate), is there anyone who can help me see why this health care situation won’t be straight-up worse than it is now in the big picture?

Also, re #66, I am still trying to determine if that was sarcastic.  You don’t expect two people making about $30K each to feel the effects of an 8% kick to the gut?  That’s hardly rolling in the dough.  Richer folks (6 figures and above) should have had to shoulder a much larger burden here. 10% of their income would have made it possible to subsidize (or reduce tax rates) for a lot more people.

Comment #76: Marc  on  12/24  at  03:00 PM

adobedragon (62):

Uh, sorry, but 8-percent of my lower-middle-class income isn’t just angry-making, it unaffordable

Presumably, then, you can’t afford 19% either. So even if 8% isn’t better than 19%, I fail to see how it’s worse.

Marc (70):

Still, though, 20% kept for the company?  That’s absurdly high.  I will try to dig up the doc, but I’ve read before it should cost no more than 4%-8% to administrate care.

I don’t think the company aking a profit as a bad thing. I’m more worried that they’ll fulfil their obligations by paying doctors more for the same services, not by paying for more services, but that’s a worry even if the requrement is 85% or 90% or 92% or 95% or whatever you’d find fair.

Comment #77: Hershele Ostropoler  on  12/24  at  03:04 PM

Basically, none of us want to go backward to go forward, and as a result we’re all stuck slowly drifting to the right.

I agree, and think a lot of it is liberal unwillingness to do the hard work of culture changing.  And part of the reason is we’re afraid.  We’re afraid of what that would look like.  We’re afraid of confronting the people that we know that are so far to the right that they are yanking the country that way.  We’re afraid to look at the complex way politics works, and how a right-leaning center is formed.  A lot of us just learned what a conservative Democrat looks like. 

I don’t know why that is, but it is the main problem, and the reason that we have an upside-down bargaining strategy, where we start soft and get increasingly shrill.  Right wingers are effective for two reasons, one we can emulate and one we can’t.  One is that they would shoot puppies in the street to get their way.  That extremism in pursuit of winning is something that Jane is trying on for size, and it’s a bad idea.  It concedes our moral authority, and the Norquist thing demonstrates.

But what they do is something we fail to do: They start off way to the right and bargain from that position, getting increasingly conciliatory as they approach the finish line.  It doesn’t seem that way, because they drive a hard bargain and we’re shocked at how they get away with so much.  But that’s how they do it!  They start extreme and so they have stuff to give up.  We don’t.  And then at the last minute, we try to shove stuff back in and feel betrayed.  It’s ineffective.

Comment #78: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  03:06 PM

Now I realize that we’re climbing down the insurance company rabbit hole again and completely ignoring where the vast majority of healthcare costs come from, which is things like provider costs and prescription drug costs, not insurance premiums.  Even if every insurance company was blown up tomorrow, our system would still suck because our provider costs are way too high.

I’m on the side of incrementalism and passing the bill because right now, healthcare costs are 15 percent of our GDP.  You can’t just rip out a chunk of that by putting hundreds of thousands of health insurance employees out of work and expect the economy to do just fine.  I’m not willing to disastrously increase an already major unemployment problem just to stick it to the insurance companies.

Comment #79: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  03:08 PM

Getting a third party to grow organically—generating the demand, persuading people that they want another option and then getting them to be that option—is the only way to make a viable third party.

There’s a lot of political science research that’s quite complex that demonstrates that the real impediment to a 3rd party is the Constitution—-the way that representatives and the President are elected effectively blocks a 3rd party.  I don’t have the argument in my brain, but if I recall, it’s quite convincing.  There is no way, short of rewriting the Constitution, to have a multi-party system.

Comment #80: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  03:10 PM

And history will show that when a 3rd party does manage to win elections, they supersede one of the existing parties, which is how Republicans came to exist at all.

Comment #81: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  03:10 PM

Mnemosyne, the costs alone are bad, but we also have so many people uncovered or unable to get coverage without pay and exorbitant cost.  Even if the bill somehow reduces the cost spiral (though it’s unclear how), it leaves too many ways for people to be dropped or forced to pay more.  And again, it shatters reproductive coverage, which is no small thing.  Reproductive justice is a crucial component to ironing out class inequalities.

Comment #82: Marc  on  12/24  at  03:14 PM

The profit limits are outrageous, for sure, but I’m concerned about putting our hostility towards out of control corporate profits in front of the need to establish universal health care.  Not that I’m super against it, actually.  I think what’s sending this country down the drain is the Wall Street assumption that slowly building wealth over a long period of time is super to putting up super high profits in one quarter and grabbing the money and running.

The solution to that is high marginal tax rates.  If you hit the rich with a huge tax burden that privileges growing wealth slowly over rapidly, they’ll adjust their business practices.

Comment #83: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  03:15 PM

Ben D.—remember, conservatives are always wrong.

AIG execs break promise to return bonuses.

The defining feature of American conservatism is its total disengagement with reality.  No matter what, if a conservative makes a statement to you, it will be false in some important fashion.

Comment #84: Punditus Maximus  on  12/24  at  03:16 PM

Thus far, I don’t see anyone refuting the concerns about insurance companies basically being able to carry on as they do now thanks to all the loopholes for dropping people, upping coverage costs, and avoiding enforcement.

Every contact that you sign has a rescission clause.  Insurance companies will no longer be allowed to discriminate against people because of pre-existing conditions, which removes the incentive for people to not report those and hope they don’t get caught.  (When I was briefly on the individual insurance market, my parents advised me to not mention any of my pre-existing conditions, so don’t claim that people never actually do it.)  If insurance companies aren’t allowed to cancel your policy because of a pre-existing condition, then rescission goes back to what it was designed to be for, canceling contracts that people obtained based on fraud.

Think of it like auto insurance:  if someone has three accidents but claims to have a clean driving record in order to get cheaper insurance, should the insurance company have to pay when that person gets into a fourth accident, or should they be allowed to point out that the person lied to them?

Also, re #66, I am still trying to determine if that was sarcastic.  You don’t expect two people making about $30K each to feel the effects of an 8% kick to the gut?

No, that was me pointing out that if they make less than $58,280 a year as a family of two, they’re eligible for a subsidy since the subsidies cover people up to 400 percent of the poverty rate, which means that the 8 percent of income part doesn’t enter into it.  In other words, the poster may be worrying about a problem that doesn’t actually apply to her.

Comment #85: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  03:17 PM

(though it’s unclear how)

The idea is by limiting how much insurance companies can charge consumers, they will be forced to bargain with providers, as opposed to the current system, where consumers just pay whatever is charged one way or another.  This sounds weird, I know, but it’s actually how most universal systems work, whether they are like the one in our bill (which is close to France’s) or whether or not they’re single payer like Canada or England.  That’s why doctors were initially against this bill, but they’ve come around on the grounds, I do believe, that it’s going to minimize the headache of getting their patients to pay up.

Comment #86: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  03:17 PM

Mnem, the rescission thing is completely awful, and we need to hammer Congress to get it out before passing it on.  They claim it’s “fraud”, but they’ll dump you for “fraud” for things like not knowing you had a condition, not remembering you had a yeast infection 5 years ago, or in my case, not knowing I would have a bad Pap smear when my past 10 had been great. 

The only disincentive to continue to do this that I see is they have to take you right back because of the ban on pre-existing conditions.

Comment #87: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  03:22 PM

I don’t think the company aking a profit as a bad thing. I’m more worried that they’ll fulfil their obligations by paying doctors more for the same services, not by paying for more services, but that’s a worry even if the requrement is 85% or 90% or 92% or 95% or whatever you’d find fair.

IIRC, one of the pilot programs in the Senate bill is an attempt to get us away from the fee-for-service model because that’s one of the things that’s driving the insane increase in healthcare costs.  If doctors/hospitals are reimbursed for each test or procedure, they have an incentive to order more tests and procedures even if they’re not necessary.  I think the attempt is to try and change the model so it’s reimbursement based on outcome, not per service.

Comment #88: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  03:23 PM

I’m concerned about putting our hostility towards out of control corporate profits in front of the need to establish universal health care.

I am reasonably hostile towards out-of-control corporate profits, but I am a lot more concerned with being forced to contribute to those profits. It’s bad enough Aetna makes millions cutting people’s care; it’s outrageous that I am to be obliged to give them more.

And if this bill actually did anything to establish universal health care, rather than leaving 23 million people uninsured, then maybe the “worry about corporate profits” tomorrow argument would resonate. But it doesn’t. This is a center-right, blue-dog-Democrat corporate welfare bill, not a universal health care bill.

I guess I’m such a wingnut that I don’t see a giant corporate giveaway as Step One towards the progressive promised land.

Comment #89: Alkaloid  on  12/24  at  03:23 PM

Mnem, the rescission thing is completely awful, and we need to hammer Congress to get it out before passing it on.  They claim it’s “fraud”, but they’ll dump you for “fraud” for things like not knowing you had a condition, not remembering you had a yeast infection 5 years ago, or in my case, not knowing I would have a bad Pap smear when my past 10 had been great.

But some people actually do commit fraud.  Not, “oh, I forgot to put that on the form,” but actual fraud.  Basically, you’re re-writing contract law to say that contracts can be rescinded upon proof of fraud except for health insurance contracts.

Personally, I would prefer to put restrictions on the circumstances under which they can rescind your contract (which is what the bill seems to do) rather than declare that companies can’t cancel contracts even if they have proof of fraud.  That’s just not a good precedent to set.

Comment #90: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  03:27 PM

I have to admit, I’ve stepped back a bit from where I stood this time last week.

I still think this sucks pretty bad compared to where we began last spring, and I’m not celebrating its passage in its current form… but I’m also realizing that it’s probably the best we’re gonna get right now.

I hope that it turns out to be an improvement over the status quo, though I am not yet convinced that will be the case.  Only time will tell, and we really won’t know how good or bad this bill is for another 5 years or so, since it doesn’t fully kick in until 2014, and then it’ll probably be a good year or so before people get a sense of how well it is or isn’t working out.

But… upon learning that Jane Hamsher has been throwing primary threats at Senator Bernie Sanders (you know… the dude who belongs to the Socialist Party?), I had to back away from the “kill the bill” crowd a bit, because it all started to seem a bit unhinged.  When Bernie Sanders isn’t sufficiently left-leaning for your tastes, I don’t know what to tell you… Congress isn’t going to get too many people to his left anytime soon.

And while I’m particularly angry at President Obama over this - mainly for his lack of leadership - the primary talk is beyond fucking ridiculous.  It’s as much a pointless waste of time as volunteering for a Ralph Nader presidential campaign.  It ain’t going to happen.  And if it did, it would most likely mean that the White House is going to wind up being occupied by a Republican in 2013.  Do a little research on the success rate of primarying a sitting U.S. president and you’ll see what an utterly pointless waste of time it truly is.  Only one person has ever pulled it off successfully and then went on to become president - James Buchanan.  One of the worst presidents of all time.

The one beef I have with Ezra Klein is that he has no fucking clue what he’s talking about when he claims that Obama never campaigned on the public option.  That’s bullshit.  As a matter of fact, Obama separated himself from Hillary Clinton in the primaries by campaigning AGAINST mandates, and for a public option - the plan we’re probably gonna get is actually pretty close to Hillary Clinton’s proposal.  I know a lot of people who considered healthcare one of the key factors in their deciding between Clinton and Obama during the 2008 primaries, and a lot of them are pretty furious that he campaigned on one plan and is delivering us the plan that he actually campaigned against - namely mandates.

Anway, at this point, I’m in cross my fingers mode.  We’ll see what comes out of conference.  But as far as I’m concerned, the public option is gone and dead, and it ain’t coming back anytime soon.  It won’t be in this bill, and I really don’t buy the myth that it will get passed in 2010 separately via reconciliation.  Hopefully some improvement can be made on regulations and cost control, and hopefully they opt for the House tax proposals of hitting people with incomes over $500K rather than taxing union workers with so-called “Cadillac Plans”, as the Senate bill proposes.

We’ll see what happens.  I do enjoy the prospect of watching the Fox News crew having a collective meltdown when Obama finally signs this thing, however.

Comment #91: DTG in STL  on  12/24  at  03:28 PM

Jane Hamsher is one of the fighters. I don’t always agree with her, but it is disappointing as hell to see people here pissing on her and making comments like “that tells you all you need to know about Jane Hamsher.”

Shame on you.

Comment #92: millie  on  12/24  at  03:29 PM

Jane Hamsher is one of the fighters. I don’t always agree with her, but it is disappointing as hell to see people here pissing on her and making comments like “that tells you all you need to know about Jane Hamsher.”

Jane Hamsher has been appearing on Fox News arm-in-arm with Grover “Drown the government in a bathtub” Norquist and claiming that Norquist is really on to something when he denounces the Senate bill.

Lie down with dogs, get up with fleas.

Comment #93: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  03:32 PM

Mnem, the problem is not how it’s written, it’s just that a consumer who has been fraudulently dumped—-which would be a lot of consumers, possibly the majority—-has no recourse.  You could sue, I guess…..

hahahhaahahhahahahahahah

Yeah.  Outside of that, nada.  They’re the ones committing most of the fraud, and that’s the issue.

Comment #94: Amanda Marcotte  on  12/24  at  03:36 PM

(which is where the weird “people supporting the Senate bill are just like Iraq War supporters!” is coming from)

Actually, that came from Jake McIntyre at Daily Kos, and it wasn’t just a random hyperbolic statement pulled out of thin air, it was an assertion backed up by facts linking specific left-leaning bloggers (Yglesias, Klein) who were supporting the Senate Bill to their positions in 2003 of “yeah, this Iraq War thing sucks, but the Dems need to get behind it, because it’ll be really bad for our party if they don’t”.

McIntyre didn’t say all people who support passing the Senate Bill were in supporters of the Iraq War, he said that a few SPECIFIC left-leaning bloggers pushing for passage of the Senate Bill were also arguing in 2003 that the Democrats needed to vote in favor of the Iraq War for political survival.

I’m with you 99% of the time, Mnemosyne, but on this one you’re completely wrong.

Comment #95: DTG in STL  on  12/24  at  03:45 PM

Mnem, the problem is not how it’s written, it’s just that a consumer who has been fraudulently dumped—-which would be a lot of consumers, possibly the majority—-has no recourse.  You could sue, I guess…..

That’s what I’m saying too.  The problem isn’t that rescission exists—it exists in every contract.  The problem is that the health insurance companies are abusing it and using it to get out of contracts they don’t want to have to pay.  So what we need is to provide very strict grounds on which they can cancel a policy, not eliminate the ability for them to cancel even if someone defrauds them.

Comment #96: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  03:48 PM

Jane Hamsher is one of the fighters.

Agreed.  And in many ways, I’m with her.  I’m even with her on this bill insofar as I think it’s criminally bad that we’re being forced to settle for this when we should be able to get so much more.

But when she starts threatening to primary Bernie fucking Sanders for not being sufficiently progressive because he voted for the bill, she’s lost me.

I mean, seriously.  Bernie Sanders.  The guy is a literal member of the Socialist Party.  What does she want us to do, primary every single Democrat in Congress?  Because I’m sure that will work out favorably for us.

Comment #97: DTG in STL  on  12/24  at  03:50 PM

McIntyre didn’t say all people who support passing the Senate Bill were in supporters of the Iraq War, he said that a few SPECIFIC left-leaning bloggers pushing for passage of the Senate Bill were also arguing in 2003 that the Democrats needed to vote in favor of the Iraq War for political survival.

And yet that’s not how it was used by the people who picked up on it.  It was basically thrown in my face as, “Well, you must have thought the Iraq War was a great idea since Kevin Drum and Matt Yglesias support the Senate bill!”  I got that multiple times from different people and saw it thrown at others as well.  McIntyre may have meant to restrict it to only those few, but that’s not the way it was being used.  It was used as “they were wrong about Iraq, so therefore you must have supported that war and I don’t have to listen to you anymore.”

Not to mention, how many times do we have to say that correlation =/= causation?  It’s lazy to say that the bill must not have merit because Drum and Yglesias were wrong about Iraq.

Comment #98: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  03:52 PM

The exchange will do much of the mitigating against the ill effects of recission, and recission is such a negative public image activity that either way, we’ll probably benefit from the heightening of contradictions—corps stop voluntarily or public outcry promotes strong profit-taxing on anyone who’s cherrypicking.

I think though, that we should be on notice.  Effective enforcement of the new regulations are almost certainly going to put health insurance companies out of biz in the face of inflation.  One reason I do not buy into the idea that health care would be put away for a generation is that it’s in utter crisis NOW.  We would have come back to it in just a couple of years.  Not to say killing the bill is such a good idea—we need the forward progress.  It is more to say that the crisis in health care is probably going to promote more action *before* 2014—either in starting the reforms early or in the face of wholesale business failure of the insurance companies, we bring about a panicked nationalization.  We are, in fact, in serious trouble wrt Health Care, and in many facets—from drug discovery to rural health care delivery.

Comment #99: shah8  on  12/24  at  03:54 PM

One reason I do not buy into the idea that health care would be put away for a generation is that it’s in utter crisis NOW.  We would have come back to it in just a couple of years.

Yes, but come back to it in what form?  If Republicans are in charge, we get their magical combination of tax cuts for the wealthy, tax credits that most people can’t use, and deregulation.  Oh, and canceling all employer-based insurance and putting everyone into the individual market—that was a brainstorm of John McCain’s.  They could probably make just enough change to temporarily satisfy people and yet fuck up healthcare for at least a generation, forcing the Democrats to try and rally together again to clean up their mess.  I’m not so sure that third time will be the charm here.

Again, God knows I’m not arguing that either the Senate or the House bills are perfect.  I have my problems with both of them.  But at least there’s a foundation to start building on.

Comment #100: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  04:16 PM

Not to mention, how many times do we have to say that correlation =/= causation?  It’s lazy to say that the bill must not have merit because Drum and Yglesias were wrong about Iraq.

I don’t understand how anyone can argue both that Iraq taints the judgement of Drum and Yglesias, but working with Norquist to find common ground is a brilliant idea from Hamsher.

And I’m not saying you’re saying this, Mnemosyne. It’s just that I wanted to build off of your argument.

Comment #101: Seebach  on  12/24  at  04:16 PM

Republicans aren’t going to be in charge anytime soon.  That there is a dying party and not in the post-Nixon sense.  Furthermore, Republican agendas aren’t going to be in vogue anytime soon.  Their ideas suck and everyone knows this. 

What we should fear is Blairite NuLabor single-party chokehold.  That has different fear issues than Republicans, but it’s as unlikely that the economy will support Nulabor as it would support Republican tax cuts.  Just to really impress on people, we are really in trouble!  Obama ain’t talking about the deficit all the time because he’s a conservative.  He has to do that to keep the bond vigilantes at bay, and there are all kinds of cracks in that dam—if it breaks we’re all going to get IMF’d, and seriously, if it were actually possible for the IMF to help, even with the thrice damned austerity program, I’d sleep better.

Comment #102: shah8  on  12/24  at  04:34 PM

Anyway, here’s my personal theory, and I think you’re wrong on the split, Amanda.

Historically, the left does nothing better… nothing better… than getting into sectarian splits. Throughout all history, from the Communist Bloc, to Nader, to Canada, to France, the left is designed to be unable to cohere on anything. Ever. This is because building is harder than destroying. Setting a house on fire is easier than building one.

I think we’re going to see an acrimonious blogosphere split, between the pragmatists and the idealists. The idealists seem to think we live in Europe, with enlightened rationalists. But for better or for worse, this is America. 30% of our population is insane. Unless there are bread riots on the streets and labor union violence, we will never see single payer in this country. FDR had the thread of socialist violence over his head.

Bernie Sanders is going to be the most liberal senator we can get. Maybe ever. If this is not satisfactory, you need to move to a more liberal country.

We can continue to side with the basic democratic party, fight for a more left wing party, and try and incorporate ourselves into the party to become influential. Or we can try and take it all down. We must remember that the media we have is the media that we have. They will be willing to present the left blogosphere as just the left’s answer to the teabaggers, and people who do not pay attention will accept that “both sides are just as bad”.

Every institution in this country, from Wall Street, to the media, to the senate, to the house, to big business is aligned against us. The activist blogosphere is not powerful enough to take on the big boys, unless you’re willing to play a long game. There is only one institution that the left blogosphere is capable of destroying, and that’s the democratic party. And I don’t mean that then they will be magically replaced by a new, purer party. The demands of the electoral college and the winner-take-all nature of our electoral districts preclude a third party. If you want a real third party, you need to get your state legislature to change the way representatives are apportioned. Proportional representation will lead to a multi-party system, but that comes with its own disadvantages.

Unless the blogs want to be Sistah Souljah’d from the Democratic party and lose any influence they have built up so far, they must draw a line and refuse to work with the teabaggers and Norquist. Norquist and the tea-baggers are not anti-corporate. It is a ruse. It is a scam. It is a trap, laid to fracture the left. The blogs will lose everything we have built up.

We need to hold Obama accountable. I’m happy Sanders and Dean et al acted up to get more concessions. But we cannot, cannot, cannot destroy ourselves in the process. But since destroying itself is what the left is designed to do, I predict we will.

Comment #103: Seebach  on  12/24  at  04:41 PM

But I’m sort of surprised that no one has pulled that card out, and it really shows how farcical the idea that this could have been a super progressive bill if things were slightly different is. Which is why I don’t think anyone is pulling that card.

Nobody that anybody takes remotely seriously.

Wander over to Hillaryis44 (yeah, they haven’t gone anywhere), NoQuarter, Confluence, Alegre’s Litterbox or any of the other PUMA sites still alive and kicking and that’s all you’ll find: “If Hillary hadn’t been screwed over by Howard Dean and the DNC!!! Blah, blah, whine whine…”

Comment #104: DTG in STL  on  12/24  at  05:42 PM

Mnem, I’ve thought about this, but I haven’t seen anyone actually resort to arguing Clinton could have done a better job, because I know people can’t say that with a straight face.

I have.  See recent post at Shakesville, especially in comments where it is seriously argued that a McCain presidency would not have been “fundamentally different” from the current Obama presidency, and people are apologizing for being “hoodwinked” into voting for Obama instead of Clinton.  Also, that the current Congress would have prevented McCain from attacking Iran.  I don’t see how you can think Democratic congressmembers are useless tools on health care, and then believe they wouldn’t be cowed into voting for Iraq War II—especially if the country had just given its stamp of approval to Iraq I by electing McCain.

I’m also tired of the “All Democrats are tools” narrative.  Some Democrats sure are tools.  But lots aren’t.

And again, I just want to know if I’m getting old and a bunch of 17-year-olds are taking over, who were young children during the 2000 campaign and don’t actually remember how the vote split between Gore and Nader got us Bush. 

I know, because I was one of the people voting third party.  I was a radical progressive idealist, disenchanted with Bill Clinton’s centrist compromises and corporatism, and Bush and Gore looked pretty much the same to me.  I marched in protest of the presidential debates not letting Nader debate in Winston-Salem on October 11, 2000.  I voted for the Socialist Party USA candidate because I was voting for what I really wanted to see.

And what happened was this:  Nader won quite a lot of votes away from the Democrats, and a few from the Republicans, but nowhere near enough to win.  The Democratic/Republican vote was so close that it went to the Supreme Court, which voted along party lines to install Bush.  The right wing took over.  The lesson Democrats learned was not “Move left so you’ll win more progressive votes”—it was “You are powerless against Republicans.  Progressives are not a reliable source of votes.  You had better tack rightwards to avoid alienating the centrists whose votes you can win.”

The message we actually sent by voting third party in 2000 was exactly the opposite of the message we intended to send, and we got eight years of total nightmare under Bush.

That strategy has been tried and it blew up in our faces.  I’m immensely frustrated with anyone who seriously argues that we should do it again.  Look, I get the frustration with Obama and the Democratic members of Congress.  I’ve been there.  Hell, I’m still there.  But we need to think up a different strategy than that one, because fuck if I’m going to do the Bush years again.

Comment #105: snowmentality  on  12/24  at  06:01 PM

Nader won quite a lot of votes away from the Democrats, and a few from the Republicans, but nowhere near enough to win.

And nowhere near the 5% needed to get matching funds from the government. That was the project, I thought. Nader was going to build an actual third party, a threat from the left that would move the Democratic party to the left. I thought Americans were not stupid enough to elect Bush. Gore would win, AND the Green party would start the long game. It was win-win. I was 18 (birthday on election day!) I was in Texas, and could vote Nader with a clear conscience. As I blew out my candles, I made my wish that America would be on the right track. It was only up from here!

I will never, ever overestimate America again, for the rest of my life. The path of cowardice, convenience, and least effort is the path the American voter will take: now, and forever.

Nader then disappears from the scene like a fly-by-night charlatan, not standing up during the recount, not standing up against Bush, even eventually abandoning the Green party. But he returns every four years to speak ill about any democrat. I was used and I regret it.

Comment #106: Seebach  on  12/24  at  06:14 PM

I’ve read where the Kill the Bill opposition actually improved the bill, that drawing a line in the sand, finally, gave some push away from the worst of the worst.

If we want better politicians we needn’t wait for an election, we can make our Dems better now.

And Cenk Uygur agrees:

“Rahm Emanuel gave a wonderfully condescending interview to the Wall Street Journal where he explained that the White House has nothing to worry about from the left. That’s exactly what we have to change. Unfortunately, the only way to capture their attention and make them accommodate us rather than Fox News Channel is to hurt them. When we can put on the same kind of pain and pressure on the Obama White House as Fox does, that’s when they’ll have to move, at least to get out of the way.

You inflict political pain by voting things down. So far progressives have been completely unwilling to do this. They got rolled on healthcare because they had no intention of putting their foot down - and everyone knew it.

The next time Obama pushes a corporate agenda, progressives have to knock him upside the head. Deny him. Or as the kids would say, send his shit. And make a big stink out of it. Draw everyone’s attention to how far right Obama is and how out of whack he is with the American people.

If that scares you and you start to worry about damaging a Democratic president, you’re never going to win at this game. You’re never going to get the policies you want. They don’t listen to reason, they listen to power.”

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/25715

One big example of progressives refusing to fight are the abortion “compromises,” and then even being blase about the real damage they will cause:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/21/817753/-Nelson-Abortion-Compromise:-Threatening-Life-and-Health

Comment #107: judybrowni  on  12/24  at  06:15 PM

I have a sort of, but not really, off-topic question: How sick is Senator Byrd? IS he just old? Is it likely he’ll be up for voting on the, post-committee bill in mid-late January? I really do hope so.

Comment #108: t-ster  on  12/24  at  06:15 PM

Well, I made an argument that I never thought we’d see an actual 3 party system, but what I do see happening is a left-wing party taking the place of the Democrats and the Democrats turn more and more in the (historical) Republican party and the Republican party falls off the edge of its flat, 6000-year-old Earth.  But that is still going to require the left to abandon the Democratic party.

As far as the kill-billers go (and I understand and sympathize with the argument), the pragmatists need them.  They need someone further to the left to show that pragmatists are the “grown-ups”.  If there were no radical left, the pragmatists would be seen as radical leftists, sorta like the way the Republicans tried to say Obama was the most liberal senator ever of all times!  Sure, there need to be pragmatists (as much as they make me sick to my stomach) but if we ever want to drag this country back towards the left, we need people agitating at the boundaries.  So dismiss them (us) if you like, but without them (us), you’d be the rabid, radical left.

Comment #109: Mireille  on  12/24  at  06:15 PM

I have a sort of, but not really, off-topic question: How sick is Senator Byrd? IS he just old? Is it likely he’ll be up for voting on the, post-committee bill in mid-late January? I really do hope so.

In a worst case scenario (ie death), West Virginia has a Democratic governor, so he would appoint another Democrat to the seat.  Hopefully that won’t happen, though.

Comment #110: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  06:20 PM

Comment #105: snowmentality

Technically Nader peeling votes did not get us Bush.  The Supreme Court stopping the recount that would have given Gore the election gave us Bush.

Comment #111: Mireille  on  12/24  at  06:21 PM

So dismiss them (us) if you like, but without them (us), you’d be the rabid, radical left.

Oh, I agree the kill-billers are necessary. I think there does need to be an outraged left, to move the Overton window left. But to believe delivering potentially fatal wounds to the democratic party is fine because the Republicans are dead is dangerous.

I once assumed there was an “establishment” that realized how dangerous Bush was and would work to keep him in line because he hurt the long term project of corporate dominance of everything. They never did. I always thought US democracy was just a show, but it’s only just a show on the left side. On the right, the howling mob is king, and progressives ignore this at their peril.

Comment #112: Seebach  on  12/24  at  06:24 PM

But yes, one lesson is that we need to think very seriously about what it will take to increase progressive power in the party.

Well, the end to the unconstitutional supermajority requirement in the Senate would be a start. We need less veto points on legislation if progressive aims are to be achieved. Having more women in the Senate isn’t going to do bupkiss when you can still only pass the legislation that the 60th-most-liberal senator approves of. By definition, that’s going to be a lot less progressive than what the 50th-most liberal senator can support, which is why the cloture requirement needs to go.

Comment #113: Chet  on  12/24  at  06:25 PM

As far as the kill-billers go (and I understand and sympathize with the argument), the pragmatists need them.  They need someone further to the left to show that pragmatists are the “grown-ups”.

It all comes down to the difference between strategy and tactics.  I have no problem at all with using the tactic of denouncing the bill to hold people accountable and to make it harder to paint people in the actual center (not the Village’s center, but the actual political center) as wild-eyed pinko Commie dupes.

What I do have a problem with is the preferred liberal strategy of voters staying home and not voting to “send a message.”  That’s worked pretty much, well, never, but it always gets spouted in situations like this.  As I said from the beginning, if the message from people like Kos and Hamsher had been, “We are going to primary each and every one of you motherfuckers,” I would have been first in line to pick up my torch.  But it wasn’t—a lot of people fell right back into that destructive “both parties are the same, I’m never voting again” mindset that got us here in the first place.  I can’t speak for anyone else, but that’s what was pissing me off this week, not the tactics by people trying to change the bill.

Comment #114: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  06:26 PM

Telling the disaffected base to shut up and put up also pushes the move to third party.

I’m a life-long Democrat, from four generations of Democrats, and if I’m considering a move toward Independent, the Dems are losing their base from lack of fight.

Comment #115: judybrowni  on  12/24  at  06:27 PM

But to believe delivering potentially fatal wounds to the democratic party is fine because the Republicans are dead is dangerous.

A dead snake can still deliver a fatal bite.

Comment #116: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  06:29 PM

Telling the disaffected base to shut up and put up also pushes the move to third party.

Then the disaffected base had better get to work on dissolving the electoral college, eliminating the filibuster, and changing congressional representative apportionment at the state level. Just voting for a third party does absolutely nothing until it actually has the power to form as a viable institution.

Comment #117: Seebach  on  12/24  at  06:31 PM

Which progressive, by the way, has started the End the Filibuster movement? Is it Kos? Is it Hamsher, or is she too busy with the Whitewater Obama escapade? Or has nobody actually started this yet and it’s just a bunch of whining?

Comment #118: Seebach  on  12/24  at  06:35 PM

And at the base of all this is the fundamental fucked-up-ness of making health care provision a capitalist enterprise that puts profits before people.  The reason is that every capitalist interaction between a consumer and a corporation is inherently adversarial. We are both trying to maximize our resources from an interaction, and there’s only so much money to go around.

Not necessarily true.  Firstly, interaction is not necessarily a zero sum game - corporations can and do derive profit from adding value to goods and services. Secondly, a tranasaction is not isolated but exists in a context. It follows that where there is the expectation of a continuing relationship, it makes sense for both parties to ensure that the other benefits, that both split the value added by the company. The customer happily pays because they benefit more than it costs them, the company is happily nice to the customer to keep them coming back.

You can see the initial insurance contract as that - the value added for the customer is security and an assurance that catastrophic health care cots will be met.  The problem is that at some point, there isno mutually profitable continuing relationship - the customer becomes a net loss to the company (which is, of course, when they most need help). At that point the rules change and corporate sociopathy becomes profitable.

A capitalist system built on profit works and works well when that profit comes from adding value and corporations compete. The fundamental problem with the right is that they assume this is automatically the case.

Comment #119: Phoenician in a time of Romans  on  12/24  at  06:35 PM

I should probably say that the reason I’m such a bitch about denouncing the “I’ll just stay home” tactic is that I’ve been there, done that, and watched in horror as it bit me in the ass and I saw things get exponentially worse because only the crazy people were voting.

Did I vote for Nader in 2000?  Why, yes, I did.  Was it “okay” because I was in a safe state?  In retrospect, no, because I inadvertently continued the “Republicrats” meme that helped push George W. Bush into office.  After all, if they’re all the same and Bush policies would be no different than Gore’s, then there’s no need to get all bent out of shape if Bush wins instead, right?

Comment #120: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  06:41 PM

What I like about you Mnemosyne is that you made a mistake and then said “man, that was a mistake, not doing that again!” instead of crying about how you were used and the system is the devil and etc etc etc.

I agree with Mireille - the future for progressives is a third party that ends up replacing and displacing the Democratic party. I don’t know if the Greens are that party in the US; I’d wager not. I think a progressive third party will start out a lot more mainstream and a lot less hippie than the Greens (nothing against the hippies, I’m pretty much a hippie myself), good on environmental stuff but the bread and butter will be lunchpail issues - health care, social security, immigration, etc.

For such a progressive party to actually get anywhere, it will have to peel off a couple of elements of the hard left, or at least a couple of our touchstones are going to have to change. Immigration is the big one there. America should always be a welcoming country but a progressive party that cares about American workers is not going to be sitting with a 10% unemployment rate saying “you know what we need is, is more immigration!” We have to get over the idea of moderating immigration and having a degree of control over the border being a progressive third rail.

And at the same time that progressives must move a little bit right on immigration, they have to move a whole lot left on economic issues, with a Clintonian approach of using markets to fund social programs. This kind of health care monstrosity, taking power away from people and giving it to corporations, is pretty much the exact opposite of what a workable progressive movement can stand for. A real progressive party will be able to make promises it can keep, change that it actually intends to implement.

And btw, Amanda, I don’t think you’re a “wingnut” for being so far to the right of me on what kind of health care reform bill is acceptable. I just think you’re wrong. That’s another thing a workable progressive movement is going to have to learn how to do - have a culture where it’s possible to be wrong in the same room without it being a war or a mutual firing squad.

Comment #121: Alkaloid  on  12/24  at  06:54 PM

Technically Nader peeling votes did not get us Bush.  The Supreme Court stopping the recount that would have given Gore the election gave us Bush.

Because I’m sure Gore could have governed effectively with the GOP tarring him as an election thief from day 1. And remember the media hated Gore.

Plus, you have in this comments thread three people who would take it back and vote for Gore now. If we had 600 takebacks in Florida, none of this shit would have happened. No financial calamity, no Iraq War, and possibly no 9/11. I’d make the trade. I’d make it in a heartbeat. I’d take Gore’s corporate sell-out mandated health reform bullshit over the horror any day, any time.

Comment #122: Seebach  on  12/24  at  06:57 PM

What Seebach said in multiple places, especially:

I will never, ever overestimate America again, for the rest of my life. The path of cowardice, convenience, and least effort is the path the American voter will take: now, and forever.

I assumed that we could take the status quo under Clinton for granted.  Unlike you, I thought Bush might get elected, but I figured he wouldn’t really change too much, and the country would more or less continue as it had under Clinton—I really thought Bush and Gore were that similar.  And then we’d have an energized progressive movement to oppose him, and we could improve on the status quo.  But I certainly didn’t think we’d lose anything of significance.  I didn’t understand what it would mean to have that bluff called, basically.

(brb, inventing a time machine so I can go back to early fall 2000 and scream at myself.)

We both thought voting third-party didn’t run the risk of actually losing anything, or at least not much. We were both really, really wrong.

What I see when people say Obama = Bush or Obama = McCain is people telling themselves that they don’t stand to lose anything major, so they can make the gamble.  You and I were wrong about that in 2000.  They’re wrong about it now.

Yes, if the Supreme Court hadn’t stopped the recount, Gore would almost certainly have been elected.  If Nader hadn’t peeled votes, I don’t think it would ever have gone to the Supreme Court at all.

Hell, no, we don’t just shut up and blindly support whatever any Democrat does no matter how much it sucks.  But we can’t use the strategy of threatening to let the Republicans win to try and push them left.  (And both voting third party or not voting, as it stands now, are in practice equivalent to threatening to let the Republicans win. I don’t like that either, but it’s a fact.)  It’s been tried, it doesn’t work, and it backfires.  We need a better strategy.

Comment #123: snowmentality  on  12/24  at  07:51 PM

Again, telling the disaffected base that THEY have to change the filibuster, electoral college, etc. is telling that base to shut up and put up with whatever is dealt out.

And especially obnoxious when we watch the President we elected, do no work to follow through on his campaign promises—but seemingly work hard for the reverse.

I have not seen Obama twisting arms for the healthcare he campaigned on: but I did see Obama turn out for Lieberman when the disaffected base tried to elect a more progressive Senator. I’ve seen Obama work hard behind the scenes to kill the Public Option, while giving mealy-mouthed, limp “support.”

I have not seen Obama work hard to reform the financial instituitions that brought us to the brink of a financial meltdown: I have seen Obama reappoint the very leaders of the big financial giveaway to his administration, and then throw buckets of taxpayer cash at them.

Same goes for DOMA—we’ve only seen Obama work AGAINST the repeal, precisely the opposite of his campaign promises.

Torture, the executive power grab, Afghanistan, banks, Wall Street, so on and so forth: we’ve only seen Obama work hard to keep the status quo, at best.

And now, apparently signing on to the biggest backward movement in reproductive rights in decades.

I’m not threatening to leave the Democratic party for effect, and the disaffected base isn’t either. We’ve been driven away. I’ll work for progressive Democrats and Independents who vote progressive.

The Democratic Party has created this problem, and telling it to go away will not elect more Democrats.

Comment #124: judybrowni  on  12/24  at  08:22 PM

By the way, I never fell for Nader or Green Party distractions, have always voted Democratic down the ballot, never believed the “no difference between Dems and Republican” bullshit, so if the Dems are losing me now, they’ve made it their business to do so.

Comment #125: judybrowni  on  12/24  at  08:28 PM

I’m not threatening to leave the Democratic party for effect, and the disaffected base isn’t either. We’ve been driven away. I’ll work for progressive Democrats and Independents who vote progressive.

Okay, this is weird.

I’m saying, “If you want change in the Democratic Party, you should work for candidates who better represent what you want.”  I’m pretty sure that’s what Seebach is saying, too, though he’s (she’s?) being more hyperbolic about it.

You’re saying, “Piss off, I’m going to work for candidates who better represent what I want.”

I’m really not getting what the disagreement is here.  You’re planning to do exactly what we’re saying is the best strategy, namely working from the bottom up to get more progressives into office, and yet somehow we’re opposing you?  I’m very confused.

Comment #126: Mnemosyne  on  12/24  at  09:24 PM

I’ll work for progressive candidate, but I’m plugged in to know who is who, and I may become frustrated to the point I step back from gathering that information.

And I’m warning you: a large part of the disaffected Dem base is not plugged in, and will simply not show up for the next election in 2010.

I can’t tell you how many conversations I’ve had with everyday Dems disgusted by the bailouts and continuing in Afghanistan, or desperate about their business and job prospects - and they don’t see the Dems helping them the way it looks as though Wall Street and the bankers were boosted.

They’re staying home in 2010—along with the gay and lesbians and other activists who are spitting mad and feel betrayed six ways to Sunday.

Unless Obama and Congress start to court the base with real action, they’re the ones who will undermine the Democratic Party, not someone like me.

Comment #127: judybrowni  on  12/24  at  10:46 PM

Also: if it appears healthcare reform won’t change the way the system works: if they continue to be dumped by their insurance companies when they get sick, if their premiums are nearly as high, if they’re forced into junk insurance with high deductibles, and their treatments are only partially covered by the insurance companies, the base will blame Democrats now, instead of the insurance companies.

And by the by, the Senate bill includes all of the above abuses.

Comment #128: judybrowni  on  12/24  at  10:54 PM

And I’m warning you: a large part of the disaffected Dem base is not plugged in, and will simply not show up for the next election in 2010.

No, I get this. I understand it, and I think it’s likely to happen. I know which side of the political spectrum I’m on: The side that always loses.

Comment #129: Seebach  on  12/24  at  11:14 PM

But some people actually do commit fraud.  Not, “oh, I forgot to put that on the form,” but actual fraud.  Basically, you’re re-writing contract law to say that contracts can be rescinded upon proof of fraud except for health insurance contracts.

That’s fine, and I agree that an insurance company should have a mechanism to defend itself against things which reasonable people would consider fraudulent.

The problem is, the insurance company, with a heavy profit motive, gets to determine what constitutes fraud for themselves, and they get to make claims denial decisions based on their own skewed interpretation of what is or isn’t fraud.

And they’ve abused the hell out of it.

The patient’s only recourse when they are being denied coverage under allegations of fraud when any rational person wouldn’t consider it fraud is to sue the insurance company - something many insurers know most people won’t bother with, because it is extremely time consuming and expensive, not to mention quite stressful.  If a bean counter determines that the company could save $10 Million by abusing the rescission and denial tactic and only have to pay out $2 Million in lawsuit settlements to those who sue, they’re going to employ this tactic - BECAUSE IT WORKS.

A for-profit insurance company’s primary purpose for existing is to make money, not to deliver service.  If a practice can be determined to be profitable over the long term, even if it involves highly unethical behavior, they will engage in that practice.  If they can screw over 100 people by denying claims on bogus grounds and make $10 Million by doing it, they’ll totally do it if all they wind up having to pay in legal settletments is $2-3 Million to the five or six people who bother suing them over this practice.  And they walk out of the deal $7 Million richer than they would have been had they behaved ethically in the first place and not denied those claims.

It’s easy to not get infuriated by this practice if it has never happened to you or anyone you know.  Once you become a victim of it, your whole persepctive changes… I know mine has since UHC has put me through hell over a $20K hospital bill from last summer.  You sound like someone who has never gotten screwed over by a health insurance company, so you can’t accept that just because it has never happened to you doesn’t mean that it doesn’t happen to anyone else.  I think most people who have been fucked by one of the big health insurers probably lived under that same delusion for a long time - that this was a problem for other people, but not something that could never happen to me - until it did.

The claims denial process needs to be arbitrated by an independent third party that has no vested interest in finding in favor of one party over the other.  So long as health insurers get to make all the decisions about what is or isn’t fraud and misrepresentation, they are going to abuse that power, and they know that while it puts them at risk of being sued, most people just won’t bother because it ain’t worth the hassle.  Many lower level health insurance employees literally get huge bonuses based on the number of claims that they can deny - it pays a lot more to try to stretch the meaning of “fraud” to such an extent that the insurance company always wins.

Comment #130: DTG in STL  on  12/24  at  11:14 PM

I have a sort of, but not really, off-topic question: How sick is Senator Byrd? IS he just old? Is it likely he’ll be up for voting on the, post-committee bill in mid-late January? I really do hope so.

He’s 92 years old and mostly confined to a wheelchair.

I’m not aware of him suffering from any particular malady other than being well past the median lifespan of a male human being.

People do sometimes just die because they are really, really old.  Byrd is really, really old.  If he died in the next few months - a distinct possibility - it will likely be because he is really, really old, and old people often just die.  We aren’t immortal.  Every human who has ever lived has died.  Robert Byrd’s time to go probably isn’t too far off, given his age.

Prediction - both Senator Robert Byrd and Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stephens (89) will pass away before the next presidential inauguration in January 2013.  I’ll be surprised if they both survive through all of 2010.

Comment #131: DTG in STL  on  12/24  at  11:30 PM

Well, the end to the unconstitutional supermajority requirement in the Senate would be a start. We need less veto points on legislation if progressive aims are to be achieved. Having more women in the Senate isn’t going to do bupkiss when you can still only pass the legislation that the 60th-most-liberal senator approves of. By definition, that’s going to be a lot less progressive than what the 50th-most liberal senator can support, which is why the cloture requirement needs to go.

I agree with you.  I’ve heard others argue that the filibuster is necessary because without it, the Republicans will wreak havoc once they regain the majority.  As we saw throughout the Bush Administration, the Republicans never needed a supermajority to wreak havoc, as many Dems were unwilling to use the filibuster to stop them.

There is one catastrophe that might have occurred without the threat of filibuster looming - privatization of social security.  I think the Republicans totally would have pulled that off if they believed they could have actually gotten it passed, and the knowledge that it would have definitely been filibustered is what led them to back down.

That said, the filibuster has proven itself to be a tool that is far more powerful to Republicans than it is to Democrats.  And I think if it were taken away and progressive legislation actually had a chance to pass with a straight up or down vote, we’d see a completely different picture today.  The most pervasive meme working against the Democratic Party heading into 2010 is the same meme that always gets used against them - that they are ineffective at getting anything done.  It is extremely difficult to bank your electoral chances on the prmise that you are “the lesser of two evils” - just ask John Kerry and Al Gore.  The Democrats are in serious trouble next year, because they are going to be relying too heavily on negative reinforcement to try to get elected and re-elected - that things might be bad with Democrats, but that they’ll be worse with Republicans.  While I fully agree with that assessment, it doesn’t motivate people to turn out at the polls.  People want to vote FOR people and FOR policies, not AGAINST the alternative.  If the main reason people have to vote for Democrats next year is because they are marginally less crappy than Republicans, a lot of Democratic voters aren’t gonna bother showing up at the polls.

Contrary to the bullshit being spewed by Fox News, people aren’t frustrated with the Democrats because of all of the supposed and mostly non-existent sweeping changes they are making, they are frustrated precisely because they AREN’T getting nearly enough done given their majorities.  Historically, the weaker looking the party or the president is, the more likely it is that they will lose in their next election - we defeated George H.W. Bush because he looked weak and ineffectual on the domestic front, and yet we (sort of) re-elected his son, who while not precisely “weak”, was far more disasterous than his father in the policy that he was implementing.  Bush the Elder lost re-election because he was widely perceived as weak among his own base; Bush the Younger “won” (used loosely) re-election because while he was reviled by the opposition, he was still fairly well liked by his base in 2004.

If Obama loses re-election in 2012 (I don’t think he will, but assuming that it couldn’t possibly happen is incredibly naive), it won’t be because America is rejecting him for being the radical commie socialist fascist that Fox News paints him as being; it will be for exactly the opposite reasons, the perception that he is a weak president and isn’t getting nearly enough progressive policy implemented based on what he campaigned on in 2008.

Comment #132: DTG in STL  on  12/24  at  11:58 PM

Technically Nader peeling votes did not get us Bush.  The Supreme Court stopping the recount that would have given Gore the election gave us Bush.

And yet, had Ralph Nader never been a candidate painting Al Gore and George Bush as ideological twins, it is reasonable to assume that a sizeable chunk of the 97,000 votes he got would have gone to Al Gore instead, enough that there would have been no recount for the Supreme Court to even meddle with in the first place.  Sure, one could argue that a lot of those Floridian Naderites wouldn’t have even bothered voting, but if even 20% of them did vote (which is a reasonable assumption) and Gore took 18,000 and Bush took 6,000 of their votes (another completely reasonable assumption, and if anything, an overly conservative estimate), Gore wins the state by more than 10,000 votes… and no recount ever occurs.

No Nader, and Al Gore is declared President-elect by all parties on Election Night in November 2000, and we wouldn’t even be talking about SCOTUS fucking it all up.

Comment #133: DTG in STL  on  12/25  at  12:07 AM

Then the disaffected base had better get to work on dissolving the electoral college, eliminating the filibuster, and changing congressional representative apportionment at the state level. Just voting for a third party does absolutely nothing until it actually has the power to form as a viable institution.

And before we can expect to be able to achieve any of that stuff effectively, we need serious campaign finance reform.

We are an extremely low information electorate, and politicians buy their way into office all the time.  Don’t think that President Obama didn’t get to that office solely on great speechmaking and good talking points - he also got there because he spent over $600 Million on his campaign, and people were wowed by a fantastically well-run and highly polished machine that had a whole lot of experienced public relations practitioners making decisions as minute as what color of tie Candidate Obama would wear on a particular night.

There is a whole lot of smoke and mirrors that go into the making and selling of a candidate, especially at the presidential level.  These people become literal brands in the 21st Century, with pop icons recording music videos in homage to them - catchy as it was, I do know of some Obama voters who didn’t know jack shit about Obama’s politics or policies in 2008, but because will.i.am made a neat little viral YouTube video, they got excited about Candidate Obama.  They couldn’t tell you a fucking thing about his stance on Afghanistan or Pakistan or green technology, but he was on the cover of GQ magazine last month, so he must be cool.

And the whole Sarah Palin book tour with her image emblazoned on the side of a huge tour bus - same fucking thing.  It’s become about turning politicians into celebrities.

And the massive amount of money that corporate interests can pour into a favored candidate’s campaign coffers enables them to rely on completely vapid and superficial tactics to improve their electoral odds.  But once they win the office, it becomes time to pay the piper.

We need to keep the piper’s filthy lucre out of the campaigns of those we want to serve us in elected office.  Because as long as presidential candidates are going to need to raise a minimum of half a billion dollars to be viable, filthy rich corporatists who can supply that sort of money are going to have enormous influence on the candidates, regardless of what party they belong to.

A Green Party candidate trying to run for the presidency on a paltry $10 Million budget has absolutely no chance in hell of electoral victory among the low-information electorate.  They may hold the upper hand on substance, but let’s not kid ourselves - a significantly huge number of people vote more on style than they do on substance.  As much as I liked candidate Obama, Cynthia McKinney was far closer to my actual ideology as a candidate, but I knew that a vote for her was a wasted vote, particularly in a purple state like Missouri where the outcome wasn’t a near certainty beforehand.  That things have gotten to the point that we would consider $10,000,000 a “paltry” sum of campaign money for a presidential contender tells you all that you need to know about how far off the rails things have gotten.

Until we change the campaign finance laws that functionally allow corporate oligarchs to buy influence from both major party candidates, introducing a viable third party into the system is a fantasy.

Ralph Nader isn’t wrong to point out that corporate interests exert way too much power over both major parties.  They do, and while Barack Obama may not be as lobbyist-friendly as John McCain, only a fool thinks that lobbyists don’t have significant influence over his policy positions - he cut an $80 Billion deal with PhRMA, a literal lobbying organization, inside the Oval Office on HCR several months ago.  What Nader lacks is a pragmatic solution to this problem of corporate influence, and his own delusional messianic complex tells him that he personally is the answer to the problem.

Comment #134: DTG in STL  on  12/25  at  12:46 AM

As we saw throughout the Bush Administration, the Republicans never needed a supermajority to wreak havoc, as many Dems were unwilling to use the filibuster to stop them.

That, and the stuff they want to do can usually be done via reconciliation, which can’t be filibustered. A really progressive agenda is typically a regulatory one that requires structural change, which makes it subject to cloture requirements.

Comment #135: Chet  on  12/25  at  02:17 AM

Actually, that came from Jake McIntyre at Daily Kos, and it wasn’t just a random hyperbolic statement pulled out of thin air, it was an assertion backed up by facts linking specific left-leaning bloggers (Yglesias, Klein) who were supporting the Senate Bill to their positions in 2003 of “yeah, this Iraq War thing sucks, but the Dems need to get behind it, because it’ll be really bad for our party if they don’t”.

Yes, that did come from Jake McIntyre, but as was noted in the thread that followed, with the exception of Yglesias, none of the people he noted who support the health care bill also supported the invasion of Iraq.  His comparison was not “an assertion backed up by facts.”

Indeed, if you read his post carefully, you’ll see that he doesn’t specifically claim that Drum, Marshall, or Klein supported the war; he merely compares the pro-bill side of the divide now to the pro-war side of the divide then. 

The fact that almost everyone who read what he wrote interpreted what he wrote as both having asserted that Drum, Marshall, and Klein supported the war and having linked proof their support, well, I’m sure that was an unintentional and unfortunate coincidence.

Now, I don’t believe that the proponents of this bill are angels, but really, the behavior of its opponents on the left has gone from critical-but-constructive to dishonest-and-destructive, and that post by Jake McIntyre was more or less the beginning of the end of my willingness to trust anything they say. 

The bill is worse than it should be, but better than the status quo, and thus I would rather see the bill pass that continue the status quo.  And in 2010 we can elect Democrats who promise to improve it over Democrats or Republicans who refuse to do so.

Comment #136: Drew  on  12/25  at  04:29 AM

I see absolutely no reason to donate to a Democratic Party that, in addition to throwing my GLBT friends under the bus for no fucking reason except to appease homobigoted religiots, continues to pull this corporatist shit. The ATM is closed, motherfuckers.

Meanwhile, “pragmatists” like Seebach and Mnemosyne can keep on donating to a corporatist party that throws the netroots a bone every four years but doesn’t do shit for us. And lecturing the rest of us about “reality.”

Also: As stated above, Mnem, the people who’ll stay home won’t be high-information progressives. They’ll be people who don’t really care much about politics from day to day, but won’t see any reason to vote for a party that screws them over as much as the GOP does. Also, if you don’t think the insurance vultures won’t overstate the degree of “fraud” to avoid paying off perfectly legitimate claims, you’re every bit as naive as you claimed you were nine years ago.

Judybrowni, who is probably older than anyone else commenting here and therefore certainly is not too young to remember 2000, has it exactly right.

Comment #137: Nobody in Particular  on  12/25  at  06:04 AM

If the industry is required to spend 80% of it’s income on putting out money for the customer’s health care, that leaves 20% NOT for profits, but for overhead, etc, and profits.
20% is generally the ballpark estimate for overhead. So the companies will have to streamline. If htye have to pay out a certain amount in benefits no matter what, they may cut the personnel they’ve been using to deny benefits.

I’m not saying it’s guaranteed to work out—I’m sure the companies will try playing with the money in weird ways and jacking up prices as much as the can get away with. But once the government is expected to be involved, I think there will be pressure against such things. At least until Republicans regain control.

I’d like to give it a try. I believe some good will be done, and I’d like to think Krugman is right about it being the start of more useful reforms. Let’s stick a Progressive camel’s nose into the tent. The important thing is to keep pushing for more.

Comment #138: Samantha Vimes  on  12/25  at  08:17 AM

Yes, that did come from Jake McIntyre, but as was noted in the thread that followed, with the exception of Yglesias, none of the people he noted who support the health care bill also supported the invasion of Iraq.  His comparison was not “an assertion backed up by facts.”

My mistake.  I went back and re-read McIntyre’s post, and you’re right… while he does insinuate Iraq War support by all of those he listed, the only one he actually provides evidence of supporting it is Matt Yglesias.  I took the post at face value without looking at the whole thread or checking the links.

And in 2010 we can elect Democrats who promise to improve it over Democrats or Republicans who refuse to do so.

We should definitely work towards that as a goal, but I’m still just not seeing it happening.  One place where I think many in the wonkish blogosphere fail is in the belief that everybody else is just like us in their wonkishness.  In many cases, we mainly hang out with similarly politically tuned-in people, but the fact is… most of our fellow Americans are fucking clueless about politics.  I’d bet that more than third of the electorate couldn’t even tell you who the current Vice-President of the United States is.

And that said, the excitement for Democrats just ain’t there like it was in November 2008… nor is the vitriol that George Bush evoked in so many as strong today as it was leading up to the 2008 election - he ain’t the president anymore, and hasn’t been for almost a year.  He isn’t so much forgiven as he is largely forgotten.  The public doesn’t hold him as accountable for our current state of affairs as they did this time last year, and now President Obama and the Congressional Democrats are starting to feel the heat of a nation with a 10% unemployment rate.  I don’t think it is so much that people are falling in love with the Republican Party again - they aren’t - just that the Republicans have a far more energized base than we do right now.  If the election were held today, 85% of Republicans say they are likely to vote, whereas only 55% of Democrats say the same thing - if the numbers stay anywhere close to that, we’re gonna get steamrolled next year.

And the moderates who Barack Obama won over so overwhelmingly are now decidedly souring a bit on Democrats.  I wouldn’t say this has been an awful year for us, but it sure as hell hasn’t been great, either… perhaps the bar was set too high, I don’t know.  The most common sentiment I hear from young voters who were so psyched up last year is disappointment - that Obama and our huge majorities haven’t lived up to the hype.  That the victory last November really hasn’t delivered all of the hope and change that everyone imagined it would.

Anyway, in 2010, I think there’s one number that will have more impact on the midterm elections than any other… unemployment.  I’m not sure how much healthcare reform is going to be a factor, good or bad - mainly because it isn’t going to be fully implemented for another 4 years, so people’s opinion of it will be mainly based on whether or not they think it was good or bad that it passed, not whether or not the program itself is good or bad, since none of us will have yet seen it fully in action.  The status quo of healthcare in America in November 2010 is not going to be substantially different than it was in December 2009.

Comment #139: DTG in STL  on  12/25  at  11:59 AM

Amanda (86):

The idea is by limiting how much insurance companies can charge consumers, they will be forced to bargain with provider

Unless I’ve overlooked something, though, they’re “limited” to 1 1/4 of what they will graciously allow providers to charge. Right now they make providers give them deep discounts.

Mnem (100):

Oh, and canceling all employer-based insurance and putting everyone into the individual market—that was a brainstorm of John McCain’s

I can actually see how that would help: it would put all employed people on the same footing, as opposed to the current system, when insurers’ pricing structures are aimed at getting companies, which typically have (slightly) deeper pockets.

Nobody (137):

Meanwhile, “pragmatists” like Seebach and Mnemosyne can keep on donating to a corporatist party that throws the netroots a bone every four years but doesn’t do shit for us. And lecturing the rest of us about “reality.”

Seebach and Mnem (and I, and Amanda, and ...) aren’t exactly happy with the Democrats either. I don’t know if you noticed. The, yes, reality is that “a third party!” isn’t the panacea you seem to think it is.

But, go, start a political party in the barn. Your platform can be “the Democrats are big poopie-heads.” And see where it gets you (it gets you President Palin, or maybe President Rice, for reasons that have been explained and that you’ve shown no sign of addressing).

Comment #140: Hershele Ostropoler  on  12/25  at  02:23 PM

he reason is that every capitalist interaction between a consumer and a corporation is inherently adversarial. We are both trying to maximize our resources from an interaction, and there’s only so much money to go around.

If I buy a tool that can earn me thousands of dollars or save me a lot of time, the corporation I bought that tool from is not my adversary.  Your mistake is in assuming a zero sum game and that “wealth” (in its broadest sense) can’t be produced.  Labor + raw materials “creates” wealth that didn’t exist previously.

Now, people who don’t actually create anything new, like insurance companies and banks, don’t directly generate wealth, they move it and transform it, but they don’t actually create it like the guy who goes out in his garage and builds a nice piece of custom furniture that is worth far more than the collection of scraps it was made from.

Comment #141: Ploofy  on  12/25  at  05:23 PM

If it’s really posible to kill the bill, sart over, and get a better bill, then it is also possible, and simpler, to pass the bill, and then fix it.

Comment #142: rea  on  12/25  at  07:32 PM

Apparently, in the Senate bill, insurance companies also don’t need to include all co-pays, and costs into “deductibles,” so forget that cap on $5,000 worth of deductibles a year.

Continuing the policy of insurance companies, who now stretch that deductible to the point that most patients never reach it, and pay out of pocket for nearly everything.

The Senate bill is a fuck-you to the American consumer, and if you don’t think the Republicans aren’t going to have a field day with that, and the voter isn’t going to resent Democrats for their crappy but mandated health insurance policy, then no, you’ve haven’t lived as long as I have and seen as many Democratic administrations self-implode.

Comment #143: judybrowni  on  12/25  at  07:36 PM

That’s true, Rea. It’s also true that if it’s possible to not jump off a cliff in the first place, it is also possible to jump off the cliff, catch a branch halfway down, and laboriously crawl back up.

Comment #144: Alkaloid  on  12/25  at  07:56 PM

The mere idea that any progressive, at any time, anywhere, would make common cause with Grover Norquist is sickening.  This man is not just a conservative, he’s one of the intellectual architects of the thirty year long effort to dismantle the New Deal.  If Jane Hamser is so blinded by hate for Obama and his staff that she is truly set on allying with Norquist, she should drop the pretense that she’s a genuine progressive.  Unbelievable.

Even worse is this “primary Bernie Sanders” shit from FDL.  First, Sanders isn’t even a Democrat, he’s a Socialist who runs an an Independent and likely doesn’t even face a primary (unless FDL is now advocating that someone find a Republican who actually would have a chance in Vermont, for God’s sake).  Second, Sanders has been fighting for progressive values his entire political career.  That HE, of all people, is now facing a litmus test is inexplicable.  It’s like accusing, say, Ted Kennedy of being a closet conservative because he didn’t sing “The Internationale” over his brothers’ graves every November 22nd.

I’m not happy with some parts of the Senate bill, especially the abortion language.  But anyone who thinks that killing this one and starting from scratch is going to happen in this generation is nuts.  Send it to conference, pass what comes out, and go on from there.  It’s the only way that this country will have universal health care within my lifetime.

Comment #145: Ellid  on  12/25  at  07:58 PM

You inflict political pain by voting things down. So far progressives have been completely unwilling to do this. They got rolled on healthcare because they had no intention of putting their foot down - and everyone knew it.
The next time Obama pushes a corporate agenda, progressives have to knock him upside the head. Deny him.

Look, this is just totally stupid. How is “punishing Obama” going to make Ben Nelson the Senator from a less conservative constituency? Did you even ask yourself that question?

No, of course not; you’re still on the “HCR is the way it is because of a failure of Obama’s will” kick, even though that couldn’t be farther from the truth. HCR reform is the way that it is because that’s what the 60th-most-liberal senator could support. How would a challenge from the left change that in any way? Ben Nelson still has to be re-elected by the voters of Nebraska, who you might have noticed, gave only one electoral college vote to Obama last year.

I’ve listened to the Young Turks, too, and it’s pretty clear that Cenk doesn’t bring any more introspection to his liberalism than he did to his conservativism. I assume that, as soon as he said something this titanically idiotic, the guy from Turner Classic Movies was there to remind him that it’s the Senate that forced these compromises, not President Obama.

Comment #146: Chet  on  12/26  at  03:00 PM

Look, this is just totally stupid. How is “punishing Obama” going to make Ben Nelson the Senator from a less conservative constituency? Did you even ask yourself that question?

For the most part, I agree with this.

We can’t really blame President Obama for the things over which he doesn’t really have much control, for instance, the actions of Senator Ben Nelson.

Where I think Obama can be validly criticized is in the fact that while he was running for the presidency, he oversold his ability to get things done if he were to be elected.  His campaign promised lots of rainbows and ponies for everyone, but the fact is, given the fundamental structure of our federal government and its system of checks and balances, a lot of the things he promised he could deliver were things that he was never going to really be able to deliver.

For the first-time voter, this feels as if they have been lied to.  It isn’t so much lying as it is making promises that he wasn’t going to be able to keep.

A more specific case in point… in about one month, we’ll be celebrating the one year anniversary of Obama’s inauguration.  We’ll also be celebrating the one year anniversary of Obama’s first major action as POTUS - the signing of an Executive Order that promised to close Guantanamo Bay within one year’s time.

That date will come and go and Guantanamo Bay’s detention facility will still be open.  As a matter of fact, by the Administration’s own admission, GITMO won’t likely be fully closed until at least 2011, which means it will have taken at least twice as long to do what President Obama promised would be accomplished by January 2010.

Some will argue that only a fool would have believed that we would actually be closing GITMO within one year when Obama signed that EO, but many in the left blogosphere were giving Obama huge pats on the back for this “accomplishment” on that day, even though many quietly knew that it wasn’t likely to happen in the way it was being presented to us.

Now, who should be taken to task for this… the lefties who express anger when this day comes and goes in January 2010 when we see that GITMO is still open, or President Obama, who promised that it would be closed?

You could argue that lefties shouldn’t have been so naive as to believe that Obama actually meant what he said when he promised to close GITMO by January 2010, but is that really fair?

I mean, perhaps for a change… maybe it wouldn’t be too much to ask to expect ourt elected leaders to actually do what they say they will do, rather than giving them a pass when they make promises that we know they can’t realistically keep?

Is it Obama’s fault personally that GITMO will remain open well past January 2010?  Probably not… I imagine the Pentagon is largely responsible for how this will play out.  But even if we accept that it isn’t Obama’s fault personally that this timeline isn’t being met, is it unfair for us to expect him to not make promises that he’s not going to be able to keep?

Perhaps he really believed in the midst of all the inauguration fervor that his GITMO-closing EO would actually be enforceable, that we really would be able to accomplish that goal.  But the fact is, even with that benefit of the doubt given to him, he should have made damn sure that this promise was 100% deliverable before making it.  And if he didn’t know for damn certain that he was going to be able to keep that promise, he should not have made it in the first place.

At some point, “the buck stops here”, as Harry Truman famously said.  It may be unfair to directly blame President Obama for GITMO remaining open well beyond the date in which he said it would be closed… but criticizing him for telling us that it would be closed by January 2010 is COMPLETELY fair.

Quit telling the Americn public that you are going to give them rainbows and ponies if you can’t actually deliver on that.  It isn’t too much to ask that promises made should be promises kept, and if you can’t guarantee that a promise will be kept, then don’t make it in the first place.

He will be criticized next month on the Executive Order deadline for the closure of Guantanamo, and he’ll rightly deserve every bit of criticism he gets for it.

I don’t expect President Obama to be able to give us every piece of progressive policy we want all the time.  I do expect promises to be kept.  And if you aren’t sure about whether or not you’ll be able to keep a promise, don’t make it in the first place.  I’d be less frustrated if Obama had either not made a promise about GITMO’s closure or had he given a more realistic timetable of 2+ years.  Saying unequivocally that Guantanamo Bay will close within one year of your taking office and signing an order to that effect will be gravely disappointing when that date comes and goes and GITMO is still a long way from actually being closed.

Comment #147: DTG in STL  on  12/26  at  03:55 PM

Where I think Obama can be validly criticized is in the fact that while he was running for the presidency, he oversold his ability to get things done if he were to be elected.

Oh, but they all do that. What do you want, politicians to run on the platform they think they can get past Ben Nelson, and nothing more? Everybody who votes understands that no politician can see the future, or can accurately predict how their agenda will be diluted by the people they’re forced to work alongside and compromise with.

His campaign promised lots of rainbows and ponies for everyone

No, he didn’t. Public option health care is hardly a pie-in-the-sky promise, nor does it constitute rainbows and ponies. It was a goal viewed as attainable in 2008; in 2009, it was unattainable. That’s politics. That’s the point of politics - compromise between as many competing interests as possible.

I mean, perhaps for a change… maybe it wouldn’t be too much to ask to expect ourt elected leaders to actually do what they say they will do

Well, yes, it is too much to ask, to ask Obama to dramatically change Ben Nelson’s ideology, and the character of legislation Ben Nelson feels he’s allowed by his constituency to approve. Sure, Obama made promises. Unless you literally know nothing about the structure of the American federal government, you must have known that Obama was promising to advocate those policies - enacting them by fiat simply isn’t in his power as president.

At some point, “the buck stops here”, as Harry Truman famously said.

Truman may have said it, but that doesn’t make it true. The buck doesn’t stop with the president, it apparently stops with Ben Nelson. You don’t like that? You don’t like the results that has on our public policy? We get what the 60th-most-liberal senator can support. If you don’t think that’s liberal enough, then the 60th-most-liberal senator has got to get a lot more liberal. That should clue you in on what it’s going to take for real American progressivism. Hint: a lot more than a few female senators, a lot more than saying “kill the bill”, a lot more that complaining about broken promises.

A lot more than you seem prepared to do, frankly.

Comment #148: Chet  on  12/27  at  01:46 AM

RE: Chet on 12/26 at 11:46 PM

Care to address the specific criticism I pointed out in my post - that he unequivocally promised to close GITMO in January 2010, and that it won’t in fact be closed on January 2010, and not even until 2011, for that matter?

Does the buck stop here with him even on that one, or does he bear absolutely no responsibility for making a specific promise that he won’t be fulfilling?

I noticed how you conveniently never touched that issue.  Perhaps because you know that he does genuinely deserve to be criticized over it?

But if you disagree, I’d love to hear the defense of that one… and no, “every POTUS makes promises that they break” isn’t an excuse.  This was an Executive Order.  If it can’t be fulfilled because the Pentagon has told him it isn’t logistically possible, he should have checked with them before ever signing the EO in the first place.  It said very specifically that Guantanamo Bay would be fully closed by January 2010 and that all prisoners would be either released or brought to the U.S. to await trial - and now, that’s not going to happen.  It should never have been signed unless he was prepared to make good on doing exactly what it said it would do.

I’ve criticized previous presidents when they’ve done similar things (broken specific promises made AFTER being sworn in as POTUS), and I see no reason why he should be above criticism on the GITMO issue.

And no, I don’t support primarying him in 2012, nor do I realistically see myself voting for someone other than him three years from now.  In general, I think he’s been a decent, but not great president in his first year.  I’d give him a B- or so.  I’m disappointed in him insofar as I was hoping for a lot more than we’ve gotten, but I also realize that he was the right choice in November 2008, and as frustrated as he has made me at times, I still have no absolutely no doubt that we are far better off with him at 1600 Pennsylvania than we would be with John McCain there today.

But Jesus Christ, I don’t get this whole “you aren’t a loyal Democrat if you dare to point out any fucking mistake Obama has made” schtick.

Right now, if his trajectory follows the same path that it has in his first year in office, he will finish his presidency as one of the two best and most competent Republican presidents we’ve had in the last 30 years… the other being Bill Clinton.

I was just kind of hoping for someone a little bit more progressive, that’s all.  It appears that’s probably too much to ask for in America anymore.

Comment #149: DTG in STL  on  12/27  at  05:08 AM

Oh on the contrary, I assume the insurance companies will do everything in their power to evade the provisions in the bill. But it’s still an improvement. Why? They’re going to be getting public money. This means increased scrutiny, and more outrage from the public.

Yeah, that’s worked out so well for reigning in defense contractors.

Comment #150: DonnaDiva  on  12/27  at  03:53 PM

t-ster, yep - you can be dropped any time an insurance company claims you lied to them.

The thing is there’d be no need for a fraud and misrepresentation clause were the insurers not still being allowed to rate for preexisting conditions.  What’s even scarier is the bill doesn’t specifically outline what conditions can be considered preexisting conditions.  What’s to stop them from rating you because you had acne in 1987, or to drop you because you forgot to tell them about your acne?

Comment #151: DonnaDiva  on  12/27  at  04:29 PM

Care to address the specific criticism I pointed out in my post - that he unequivocally promised to close GITMO in January 2010, and that it won’t in fact be closed on January 2010, and not even until 2011, for that matter?

I thought I did address it - closing GITMO isn’t within his sole legal authority as president, ergo, he wasn’t able to wave a magic wand and make it happen (aka “want it enough.”) It’s certainly been an agenda item that he has advocated for, however. Does it suck that the Senate has been an obstacle to that as well as nearly everything else? Yes, of course.

Does the buck stop here with him even on that one, or does he bear absolutely no responsibility for making a specific promise that he won’t be fulfilling?

He also promised to address climate change, as you’ll recall. Did you interpret that to be a promise that he, individually, would invent a new kind of power source so the world no longer needed fossil fuels? Or did you understand with that promise that he was saying that was an agenda item that he would advocate for, and then you’ve ignored that explanation for the GITMO thing so you can pitch a hissy fit? You’re either being stupid or disingenuous. Take your pick, I guess.

I was just kind of hoping for someone a little bit more progressive, that’s all.

What makes you think he’s not “progressive”? Because the agenda he’s advocated hasn’t been completely enacted in every detail? Again, we’re back to the “wanting it enough” nonsense, and I’ve tried to repeatedly explain to you that it doesn’t matter how “much he wants it”; the Constitution has no provision for enacting legislation simply because the President really, really wants to, oh please please please. But you’re just not listening, I guess.

Comment #152: Chet  on  12/27  at  11:34 PM

Chet -

The Senate has nothing to do with the closure of GITMO.  He signed an Executive Order.  He didn’t just say, “Oh, golly gee, I hopey dopey we can close Guantanamo Bay next year, gosh darnit!”

Kindly go fuck yourself, douchebag.

I’m done talking to you.

Comment #153: DTG in STL  on  12/28  at  03:09 AM

The Senate has nothing to do with the closure of GITMO.

Completely and utterly wrong. It’s a military base, remember?

Kindly go fuck yourself, douchebag.

Classic - sexualized threats on a feminist blog.

I’m done talking to you.

If only you had started listening instead.

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Comment #155: Knox1986  on  12/28  at  12:07 PM

I suppose I could be classed as a “kill the bill” advocate. But I certainly don’t see myself in any of your straw men. Just as I am very proud to have attended peace marches, even though they were sponsored by ... oh, crap, I can’t even think of the name of those silly Maoists right now.

I think you should embrace the overton window a little more. Draw the distinctions between you and those on your left, without insulting our intelligence. (That does not preclude strong language, but it does preclude lazy shortcuts for strong language, like many contained in this post.)

Comment #156: homunq  on  12/28  at  08:47 PM

Sure, Obama made promises. Unless you literally know nothing about the structure of the American federal government, you must have known that Obama was promising to advocate those policies - enacting them by fiat simply isn’t in his power as president.

My problem with Obama’s performance (and yes, I’ll be voting for him in 2012, barring serious unforseen events - but my money will be going to Congressional progressive primary challengers and not the DCCC for 2010) is that he didn’t advocate those policies.  He has not been an advocate for anything other than getting something labeled healthcare reform passed. He didn’t advocate for the public option, in fact, he threw it out the window at the first sign of trouble and laughed at the lefties who were upset by his about-face. All the arm twisting coming out of the White House has been of progressives. The only issue that Obama campaigned on that he has actually advocated strongly for has been the Afghanistan war. So I do blame him for not being the advocate in chief for the very positions that he espoused and ran on.

On a tangential issue, I think we do need to get rid of the fillibuster. It is, at heart, a small-c conservative tool. Small-c conservatives, by definition, want to maintain the status quo or revert to the status quo of the recent past. Progressives, again by definition, want to change things. The use of the fillibuster leads to not doing anything, since it can only block legislation, not pass legislation favored by a minority. That means the power will always lie with the conservatives, as they can vote for any legislation they like and block any legislation they don’t like, because no legislation passing is a win for them in a way that it isn’t for progressives. That’s what conservatives want. I feel like I’m putting it inartfully, but hopefully that makes sense.

Comment #157: rivki  on  12/28  at  09:24 PM

My problem with Obama’s performance… is that he didn’t advocate those policies.

Bullshit he didn’t. If he didn’t advocate for the public option then why is it in the House’s version of the bill? You think he didn’t, because the Senate didn’t include it - again, this is the “he didn’t want it enough” argument that I’ve repeatedly shown is incredibly stupid.

All the arm twisting coming out of the White House has been of progressives.

How do you think he’s going to arm-twist anybody else, exactly? How is he going to arm-twist Senators from conservatives districts, like Ben Nelson? What do you think he has that they want? Christ, read the Constitution. There’s no provision for passing legislation because the President wants it really bad. There’s no power the President has to compel the minority party to fall in line with the majority agenda.

they can vote for any legislation they like and block any legislation they don’t like

You said it. So how did you think Obama was supposed to arm-twist the minority party, exactly?

Comment #158: Chet  on  12/29  at  12:25 AM
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