Americans often rely on statistics as a substitute for insightful qualitative analysis. It's easier to quote a batting average than to know how a baseball player performs in the clutch. It's tempting to spout platitudes about running backs getting the ball 20 times and how that correlates to victory in our football, even though that number comes more from teams running once they've established a lead than it does from how they built it in the first place.
That said, I can read an American football boxscore and get a feel for how a game I missed played out. If I add in a review of the play-by-play, I can learn all kinds of clever details, like who got the ball the most on third down, which defensive player got the most QB hurries, and so forth. Then I can head over to a site like Pro Football Reference and put those numbers into historical perspective. I'm wary of their predictive power, but on the whole, stats are good. They can reveal trends in teams, weaknesses in players, and holes in logic.
So where are the numbers on soccer?
Maybe I'm missing the places where this information is available. Maybe there are treasure troves of information about individual passing accuracy to/from specific parts of the pitch, or left-foot vs right-foot finishing stats, or goalie PK tendencies vs striker PK tendencies, or defender marking success rates. If so, please point me in the right direction. But if those sites don't exist, I think it's time they did.
Imagine you've missed a match. You go to a news site like the Guardian and click on the match report. On the page it lays out a flash-based map of the pitch and rosters for each team. Mouse over a player on the roster, and on the pitch it shows every position from which that player passed the ball, an arrow to where he placed it, and a green/red dot (which includes the name of the target player) indicating success or failure on that pass. By looking through all the players that way, you'd be able to see quite a bit about the flow of the game, where players tended to play, which side of the pitch held most of the action, and which players were taken out of the game by the defense (*cough*Gerrard*cough*).
When I'm watching a match, I'd like to know more about individual player match-ups. How often have this center back duo and striker faced of against each other? When he's scored, has this striker beaten either (or both) of them? How often? How often have they shut him down on corners? And speaking of corners, how often does a player put the ball on the head or foot of a teammate when he's taking a kick? What defenders on the other side are best at finding the ball and knocking it away? Does the keeper have a record of good positioning or bad? There's so much gambling on the game, I'm surprised there isn't information like this everywhere. And I know that it would help Americans make sense of the game. Would it help you? What would you like to see? Or do you prefer less of a numerical approach to the game? Tell me: what should soccer be doing about stats?
Ferguson's reluctance to acquire a player of the type of Luka Modric, Joe Cole, Deco or Stephen Ireland – not to mention any of the clusters on show at Barcelona or Arsenal – is particularly odd since the man he most regrets failing to acquire during his time at Old Trafford is Paul Gascoigne.
West Ham have spent big on a new striker from Italy, Alessandro Diamanti. They’re desperately short of fit strikers, so he should get some action up front and might be a surprise signing if you want to take the risk.
So, through four games, Liverpool's conceded seven goals. All seven have come from set plays (if we count Ashley Young's penalty). Zonal marking has been a scapegoat since Benitez came to the club, so it's worth a look at the proportion of goals Liverpool's conceded that have come from set plays over his five seasons.
Indeed, only days after the move, The Adventures of Bayern and Robben have begun. In this season’s first episode, the Dutchman was brilliant. As Bayern Munich took on Wolfsburg, Robben entered the game as a second-half substitute and in only a half-hour’s time, netted two goals, both of which were assisted by Ribery.
Alonso had less of an impact on the game then Lass did, which to me is not acceptable considering his talents. Few cross field passes and accurate long ball switches today, but it was the first game, and his laid back, almost anonymous approach to the game is sometimes hard to keep your eye on.
First off, credit to United. The reason they’ve won the league the last few years is that they find a way to get points when they’re not playing well and yesterday was no different. Foster made a huge save early in the second half to keep them in it. On United’s first goal, Rooney knew the best way to get a goal was to go down easily and make the referee face the scorn of the crowd and Fergie (exactly the same as Kobe or Lebron driving to the paint, forcing contact, and then making the referee make a decision); he then calmly sank the penalty. The second goal was pure luck and they did enough to capitalize on that and take all three points.
It’s easy to complain about the difficulties of playing at Old Trafford and the calls that do not go your way but not very productive. You know that going in and know that you have to play so much better than them that it won’t matter. This is no different than playing Duke at Cameron Indoor or the Lakers in Staples. What’s frustrating is that we did play that much better than them and came away with nothing. A draw would have been a fairer result but there are some positives to take away from this game:
Would Liverpool even have a win without Glen Johnson? He plays like a wing up front, scoring or having a hand in the early goals to open up the game against Stoke and scoring the critical first goal against Bolton to prevent a 3rd meltdown in 4 games. In the back, Johnson has repeatedly shut down threatening runs and avoided the lazy plays and set piece mistakes of his center backs.
Shay Given and Emmanuel Adebayor have given Man City a perfect start in spite of prolonged bouts of inconsistency due to unfamiliarity. Given was spectacular in their first game and has yet to give up a goal. Adebayor has scored the difference maker multiple times for Man City, buying them time to find a proper groove. When they do, look out.
Overcoming his rep as a selfish player, Jermain Defoe has energized the entire Tottenham team this season. Already with a hat trick to his name, Defoe consistently pressures the opposition with explosiveness and accuracy. He is England's most dangerous striker.
Unless Wayne Rooney is. He prevented a 0-0 draw to open the Red Devils' season. His second-half scoring gave Man U the confidence bounce back from an upset loss and thrash Wigan. He made the run that (controversially?) drew the penalty to even the score against Arsenal. The fate of England's biggest club falls on his shoulders, and he shows no signs of wilting under it.
Owen Coyle doesn't suit up for Burnley, but he's been the engine driving their surprising start to the season. He has instilled confidence in his players and demonstrated a commitment to playing the game properly instead of just laying 10 men back and praying for the 0-0 draw. Who knew Turf Moor would be feared?
Cesc Fabregas missed the game this weekend with Man U. The result was fluky enough; does anyone doubt that Fabregas could have been a difference maker at Old Trafford? Rumors abound that Fabregas will be Barca's next season, but the only thing we know for sure is that Arsenal owes its high-scoring start to the playmaking (and long-range finishing) of their midfield captain.
And then we come to the MVP of the Premier League this month, Didier Drogba. Chelsea began the season tentatively, and if Drogba hadn't been in the zone early, a draw vs Hull to open might have had lingering side effects. Instead, they look confident and harmonious. To top it all off, Drgoba has been generating goals as a passer, like he did feeding Anelka to open the scoring this weekend. If Didier Drogba continues to eschew pouting for playmaking, Chelsea will remain strong favorites in the EPL and, dare I say, Champs.
My All-EPL 1st Team for August:
Shay Given
Glen Johnson * Ryan Shawcross * Kolo Toure * Jose Bosingwa
Frank Lampard * Cesc Fabregas * Aaron Lennon
Wayne Rooney * Didier Drogba * Jermain Defoe
Old Giggs is old. One bad match is not the death knell for his career, not by a long shot, but this is a singularly bad match and, although it's obvious and I'm sure Fergie has some sort of master plan, we need to see Berbatov sooner than later.
Weak Foster is weak. It shouldn't be taking anything away from Arshavin's geat strike, which most goalies would have missed, to observe that Foster's effort was pathetic. As have been most of his efforts so far.
Whiny Wenger is whiny. Just saying. And yes, Alex Ferguson is never anything but level-headed and even-tempered, why do you ask?
I don't think the game is as lop-sided as the commentators would have it. United have had more offensively going on - sans finishing, to say the least - than the current analytical zeitgeist.
And good job with that save just now, Foster. Sorry I took your name in vain.
[Note: This piece was intended for Friday but our site issues held it up a bit.]
"I find it a complete disgrace and unacceptable," said Wenger. "We won't accept the way we have been treated in this case for two reasons. I believe that you can debate whether it was a penalty or not. For me it's a witch-hunt that we see and not an objective judgment of a case.
"This charge implies there was intent and a desire to cheat the referee. Having watched the pictures again there was nothing conclusive. It singles out a player in Europe to be a cheat and that is not acceptable. Uefa has taken action that is not defendable."
So Eduardo made a run at goal and supposedly went down too easily. Now he's being reviewed. This is "undefendable"? In the immortal voice of Bill and/or Ted, you, like, protest way too much, dude.
Is it worthy of review by UEFA? Was this a sinister act by Eduardo? Watch the play and replays and you decide:
Here's my reaction:
I hate all the cliches for a team which goes on a signing spree - "splashes the cash" is worst of all - but Pompey, well, has splashed the cash, picking up Michael Brown, Kevin-Prince "Don't call me George, like you almost did, Auguste" Boateng, and Jamie O'Hara (on loan from Spurs), all in the same day. Apparently asking nicely brings results.
Despite all that, there's a good chance this will be the only mention of Portsmouth all year on this blog, so enjoy it, kids.
Update: Dear lord. Ask and you shall receive.
Arsenal/Man U highlights the week, La Liga returns, and great games in all three other big Euro leagues (AC/ Inter in Italy, Marseille/Bordeaux in France, Bayern/Wolfsburg in Germany)
All times Central
Premier LeagueSaturday6:40 am: Burnley @ Chelsea, ESPN2 HD, live
8:30 am: Liverpool @ Bolton, Setanta, live
9 am: Birmingham City @ Tottenham Hotspur, FSC/FSE, live
11 am: Arsenal @ Manchester United, FSC/FSE, live
5:45 pm: West Ham @ Blackburn, Setanta, delayed11 pm: Hull City @ Wolves, Setanta, delayedSunday
7:25 am: Manchester City @ Portsmouth, Setanta, live
9 am: Wigan @ Everton, FSC/FSE, live
7 pm: Fulham @ Aston Villa, FSC, delayed11 pm: Fulham @ Aston Villa, FSE, delayed
Other than not being born to a prostitute, not growing up on a farm, not serving in the military, not accidentally killing my commanding officer, not stealing his identity, not living in Manhattan, not being a serial cheater, not promoting sexism and anti-Semitism, not wearing a suit to work every day, not being an alcoholic, not being married, not having kids, not owning a house, not having great hair and not getting hit on every 5 minutes, I'm a lot like Don Draper from Mad Men. After all, we both work in/around advertising and have a five o'clock shadow right after shaving.
Like Don, I also have a wandering eye, though mine manifests itself in sports instead of the bedroom. I may be married to specific teams in certain sports, but sometimes I dally on the side with a club du jour. In soccer, I've tied myself down to Liverpool. Hell or high water, I'll stick by them. But if the EPL is my house, La Liga is the bar down the street. And while I've beat this analogy to death, let's just say I've begun to tango with Atletico Madrid.
Watching the Champions League groups being drawn and the EPL is looking good. Groups of Death are C and F from my perspective, neither with an EPL team (not even with Rangers). Group C has AC Milan and Real Madrid, F has Barcelona and Inter Milan. They will both be tough, with Dinamo Kiev and the Russian champions FC Rubin Kazan also in F and only two teams going through.
Man U are in B with their usual soft draw (though I hear Wolfsburg are decent), Chelsea have Porto in D, Liverpool have Lyon in E, but Arsenal seem to have landed the plum option with the Dutch side AZ Alkmaar in group H. Of the four EPL teams I think Chelsea’s group might be the most diificult with Athletico Madrid in there as well, but let’s be honest - all the EPL teams should be able to progress given this draw!
Full groups:
A - Bayern Munich, Juventus, Bordeaux, Maccabi Haifa
B - Man U, CSKA Moscow, Besiktas, Wolfsburg
C - AC Milan, Real Madrid, Marseille, FC Zurich
D - Chelsea, Porto, Atletico Madrid, APOEL
E - Liverpool, Lyon, Fiorentina, Debrecen
F - Barcelona, Inter Milan, Dinamo Kiev, FC Rubin Kazan
G - Sevilla, Rangers, Stuttgard, Unirea Urziceni
H - Arsenal, AZ Alkmaar, Olympiakos, Standard Liege
Stoney's right -- it both is and isn't time to panic. Right now, Liverpool look like a shaky mess, not a team that can compete for titles. But for every problem, there's a solution. Here's the formula for a Liverpool turnaround.
Does Europe not have delay? Are all the games available played live? In other words, is it REALLY SO HARD for the British announcers to refrain from discussing other Champions League qualifying matches while calling their own? I'm just saying.
Yes and no
Last year Liverpool only lost two league games and finished second. This year the league is much more open, and I think the winner will finish with less than last year's total of 90.
I don't think though that the game on Monday was a reason to sound the alarms. Liverpool played their style, and came away with plenty of opportunities. Friedel had a great game and looked unbeatable. If Lucas wasn't in the wrong place at the wrong time and Gerrard didn't make a dumb frustration tackle then the game would have been much different.
What does Liverpool need to do to turn things around?
I'm prepared to hand Barcelona the Spanish League title, Kaka and Ronaldo be damned.
Saw a commercial with Leo Messi speaking in English and cracked up when he called himself "Little Messi." You go, Messito.
With Ronaldo, Kaka and others drawing attention from defenders and the media, look for Karim Benzema to have a big year.
We won't be seeing Ronaldinho beating defenders off the dribble the way he used to, but he looked in strong form against Siena. Perhaps Pato's youth is rubbing off on him.
Did Ribery make a mistake staying with Bayern Munich? Quite possibly.
I'd say the Russian Premier League ranks at the top of my "Leagues I wish I got to see more of" rankings. And you?
Brazil
Avai thumped traditional team Flamengo, 3-0, and are now in the Top-5 in Campeonato Brasileiro. I actually live in Brazil, and don't have the foggiest idea where Avai is. I can tell you they have nothing to do with Acai, the fad fruit down here.
Palmeiras remains on top of the standings, but were hard to watch wearing blue and white (to honor their Italian heritage) and not their traditional green.
Adriano remains at the top of the goal-scorers list with 10, thus far. Don't read too much into that, though. Just a couple years back, the 40ish Romario led the league in goals.
If everyone is indeed looking for defensive midfielders, they could do much worse that Cruzeiro's steady Marquinhos Paraná. He may be 32, but could definitely fill a back up DM role for many a European club.
21st Century Soccer Quotes
"You ever see soccer players line up to defend a free kick? They aren't covering up their noses, that's for sure." - Bender Bending Rodriguez.
--WKW
Good win for us today! Another beauty from Drogba, and Anelka scored his first goal of the season. Also, it was our first clean sheet, which is something we need every match if we are to win the Prem this year. That, plus LOTS more goals, and for Joe Cole to be fit and on the pitch doing what he does best... Patience. It's early days yet.
Confession: I have a soft spot for Fulham and tend to think of them as a dear but pesky younger brother, competitive, but fairly innocuous. But, being that both teams hail from the Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham, it's a derby when our sides meet. To Fulham's credit, they always play their hearts out against us; in March '06 they beat us for the first time in 27 years, 1-0 at Craven Cottage. I was at Stamford Bridge the following December, when Carlos Bocanegra equalized late in the match for a 2-2 draw. That was my first match at The Bridge, one I will never forget... Before the match, I met Ron "Chopper" Harris, a true Chelsea legend, who asked me about Texas and then predicted rain by matchtime (it was mostly sunny at that moment). Sure enough, right after kick-off, the rain came, swirling around The Bridge with a vengeance. Despite wearing a rain coat and my Texas ball cap, I was drenched, but I didn't care. I was in Heaven!!! I was in the Matthew Harding Lower, 6 rows up and just to the right of the goal, and sang/chanted/screamed the entire match. The guy next to me probably thinks everyone from Texas is crazy.
I was also at the home match this past May, when we beat them 3-1. This time I was way up in the Shed Upper ("we're the middle, we're the middle, we're the middle of the Shed"). Fulham's away supporters were to our right, and they got lots of stick, of course! "One team in Fulham, there's only one team in Fulham!" and "You're not singing, you're not singing anymore!" were among the songs du jour. I shared my sweets with the 12 year old boy seated next to me and had a good laugh when he sang along with some of the more colorful chants. (Apparently British children are taught that there's language appropriate only at football matches.) After the match I was standing outside the hotel at The Bridge, and Fulham's Paul Konchesky was standing just a few feet away. He looked scared, which isn't surprising since there were hundreds of Chelsea supporters milling around though no one else seemed to notice him. I can't help it, I felt badly for him -- Fulham had given it their all 'til the very end and lost. As he got into his car, I said "good match today" and smiled. It's alright, Little Brother. Better luck next time. He smiled back and waved as his driver sped away.
My Chelsea friend Chris, who took my to my first 3 matches back in 2006, says that Craven Cottage is a lovely old stadium. Guess I'll have to wait until the 2010-11 season to visit.
So where are the numbers on soccer?
First off, credit to United. The reason they’ve won the league the last few years is that they find a way to get points when they’re not playing well and yesterday was no different. Foster made a huge save early in the second half to keep them in it. On United’s first goal, Rooney knew the best way to get a goal was to go down easily and make the referee face the scorn of the crowd and Fergie (exactly the same as Kobe or Lebron driving to the paint, forcing contact, and then making the referee make a decision); he then calmly sank the penalty. The second goal was pure luck and they did enough to capitalize on that and take all three points.
It’s easy to complain about the difficulties of playing at Old Trafford and the calls that do not go your way but not very productive. You know that going in and know that you have to play so much better than them that it won’t matter. This is no different than playing Duke at Cameron Indoor or the Lakers in Staples. What’s frustrating is that we did play that much better than them and came away with nothing. A draw would have been a fairer result but there are some positives to take away from this game:
Yes and no
Last year Liverpool only lost two league games and finished second. This year the league is much more open, and I think the winner will finish with less than last year's total of 90.
I don't think though that the game on Monday was a reason to sound the alarms. Liverpool played their style, and came away with plenty of opportunities. Friedel had a great game and looked unbeatable. If Lucas wasn't in the wrong place at the wrong time and Gerrard didn't make a dumb frustration tackle then the game would have been much different.
What does Liverpool need to do to turn things around?
