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If I was a gambling man…
This year will mark the first time I have lived outside of England during a World Cup, and while this should prove beneficial in some regards - particularly in that I can avoid the jingoistic fever and over-hyped expectations for the England team that the British media will stir into a frenzy - it does mean I can't have a punt on the winners, as gambling is (as far as I know) illegal here in the States. Regardless, I thought it might be quite interesting to have a look at what the bookmakers at home think is likely to happen this summer, and see how far we agree with them.
Spain are quite clearly favourites to win the competition, and it's difficult to find a strong case to argue against them, even if Brazil currently top FIFA's World Rankings.
Hmm, it’s been so long since I posted anything, I messed it up.
There was quite a long thread about the various merits of each of the top 7 bookie-ranked teams, and how I think you can guarantee a better than 50% profit if you arbitrage your stake across 6 of them (discounting England, who have no hope at all). Unless Mark can find it somewhere, I’ve lost it. Should write into a Word doc before publishing, shouldn’t I?
Bah.
To summate, though, Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Holland.
I really wouldn’t back any other country to win, including England, Italy, France, or Portugal.
Comment #2: rowinio on 05/19 at 07:49 PM
Don’t know about putting it in Word, but it is a shame it is lost.
I’m not sure I’d put Spain as favorite, despite the betting trends. I’d go with Brazil, then a toss up with Spain/Argentina as second favorite, and after that, I’d put long odds. At some point I ought to run a Monte Carlo simulation and see what that says—so many numbers to play with, so little time! 
Comment #3: James on 05/20 at 12:25 AM
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You can bet in the United States—I suspect the Las Vegas sports books will have odds on the World Cup at some point.
That said, I did find William Hill on line—it shows how little they fancy our group that Algeria and Slovenia are down near the bottom of the odds. http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/betting/e/839/World-Cup-2010—-Outright.html
At 5/1, I’d put a pound on Brazil.